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[SMM Metal Breakfast] China's A shares plummeted * crude oil futures are evenly matched in long and short positions * the road for steel prices to rise is not over.
Jul 17,2020 07:24CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] crude oil futures are evenly matched with each other * electrolytic aluminum stocks slowly go out of storage to maintain high levels * manganese products exported to India may decline in the second quarter * hot rolls accumulate for 4 consecutive weeks * steel prices continue to rise * iron ore production in South Africa increased 17.7% month-on-month in May * New energy vehicles go to the countryside to open rural encirclement cities * Nandu power plan Increase the construction of lithium batteries by 1.4 billion yards * the total amount control index of rare earth tungsten mining in 2020 has been issued.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"[copper conference live broadcast] in the second half of the year, China's GDP will be more than 8% * the impact of the new solid waste law and sulphuric acid expansion reservoir * Analysis of global copper supply

Chinese A shares suffered Black Thursday US stocks collectively fell gold lost 1800 US dollars

Outlook for Today's Financial data: focus on the Annual and monthly rates of CPI in the Euro area in June

Today's focus

[more than 3.55 million cases of new crown infection in the United States, and more than 78000 new infections in a single day.] according to the real-time surveillance system of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 05:34 in the afternoon of July 16, there have been 3556403 cases of new crown virus infection in the United States, including 138072 deaths. Compared with the system's data at 05:34 on July 15, there were 78386 new infections and 966 new deaths in the United States.

[SMM analysis: crude oil futures are evenly matched and still need to pay attention to the epidemic situation] the recent trend of oil prices has entered a narrow consolidation stage, and the main contract of US crude oil has fluctuated at US $40 for nearly a month in a row. The long-short forces are anxious, and the oil market seems to be waiting for new signals to guide them. "View details

Rio Tinto, a large global mining company: the additional impact of the epidemic on copper supply for the year is about 3%, and is likely to rise further.

SMM: according to estimates, the output of copper mines affected by the epidemic in overseas copper mines reached 333500 tons, and it is estimated that the output affected by the epidemic will be about 450000 for the whole of 2020. Copper concentrate growth is expected to fall to-0.3 per cent in 2020, compared with a global increase of about 400000 tons in 2020.

[SMM data: slow de-stocking continues the weekly reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory by 4000 tons to 708000 tons] on July 16, the slow de-stocking trend continued. According to SMM statistics, the weekly inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly by 4000 tons to 708000 tons. "View details

[SMM data: less in and out of the warehouse to maintain high aluminum bar inventory decreased by 7200 tons to 65000 tons compared with last Thursday] less in and out of storage to maintain high aluminum rod inventory decreased by 7200 tons to 65000 tons compared with last Thursday. Inventory in Foshan, Wuxi and Nanchang declined, inventory in Changzhou increased slightly, and inventory in Huzhou remained flat. "View details

SMM analysis: which new growth points will be detonated in the epidemic era after the new energy vehicles go to the countryside to encircle the cities? On the whole, the effect of going to the countryside of new energy vehicles may be the same as that of cars going to the countryside in 2009, which will greatly stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles in rural areas, and will also greatly mobilize the enthusiasm of rural consumers to buy cars. It is a great benefit for new energy vehicles, and the battery, as the main core component of new energy vehicles, will also benefit. "View details

[SMM brief Review: crude steel production of Tata Indian Steel fell 33.6% year on year from April to June. Exports of manganese products to India may decline in the second quarter] according to SMM statistics, India is one of the main importers of forged manganese and manganese products in China, with a total import of 17422 tons of electrolytic manganese and manganese products from January to May 2020, of which 7069 tons of forged manganese and manganese products are imported, and 10353 tons of scrap and powder are imported. As a result, customs statistics on manganese exports in June do not show that India's total imports in May were 538 tons, a sharp decrease of 81% from April. According to traders, India has fewer inquiries for imported manganese products in June, and it is expected that exports of manganese products to India will show a downward trend in the second quarter. "View details

[SMM hot rolls: how long can hot rolls accumulate strong fundamentals for 4 consecutive weeks? According to SMM Steel on July 16, the total inventory of hot-rolled coil this week is 3.7685 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 3.72% and a year-on-year ratio of + 10.74%. Since the end of June, the hot volume has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and this week it is affected by the synchronous wide accumulation of the factory social library, and the overall accumulation range is higher than that of previous weeks. [reprint source to be retained-Shanghai Nonferrous net] [SMM hot volume] how long can the strong fundamentals of hot rolls last for 4 consecutive weeks? Https://news.smm.cn/news/101203351

[SMM thread: the road of accumulation is not over, and the road of rising steel prices has not stopped.] as of July 16, the national total inventory of building materials was 10.7401 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 0.6% and + 29.2% compared with the same period last year. Seasonal interference has not faded, central China, East China, southwest and other areas are still shrouded in overcast and rainy weather, terminal demand continues to be suppressed, so the thread inventory is still in a state of accumulation. However, after South China took the lead in "getting rid of difficulties", the strong replenishment of local demand is an important argument to prove the objective existence of the demand for quick work. The urgent demand for work is more urgent than in previous years, and the terminal just needs a good year-on-year performance, which is an important reason why the current inventory growth continues to narrow year-on-year (this week, the thread pool growth rate narrowed by 3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. "View details

[SMM Steel] the poor performance of the black system today is mainly due to the explosion of the stock market and financial sentiment. On the contrary, the author thinks that it is a good opportunity for Budo. Iron ore bargain Buduo 01 contract is a priority, deep discount 170. The fundamentals of coke are safe and sound, only because the profit per ton of steel is higher than that of steel mills, which annoys the steel mills; looking back, the fundamentals are healthier: first, the capacity can be eliminated by the end of 2020; second, the high demand continues to expand. In the second half of the year, the net new production capacity of steel mills for "energy exchange" is about 15 million tons (including independent electric arc furnaces), so there is no way to worry about the United States. In a word, the author still holds a cautiously optimistic view on the black system as a whole.

Important news of metals and industry

[Huo Coal Hongjun Aluminium Power made a profit of 540 million yuan from January to June this year] Coal Hongjun Aluminium Power Company actively gave full play to the synergistic benefit of both sides of aluminum power, maintained stable production of enhanced current in electrolytic series, and steadily promoted the process route of "two low, one high, two without profit". The main economic and technical indicators, such as AC power consumption, alumina unit consumption, product grade rate, etc., are advanced and continue to achieve excellence in the industry, and the complete cost of aluminum products reduces and increases profits by 568.54 million yuan. The profit in half a year was 540.75 million yuan, an increase of 420.72 million yuan over the same period last year.

China's primary aluminum production rose to a six-month high in June, and daily output hit a record high as new smelting projects expanded production to cash out as domestic aluminum prices continued to rise. China produced 3.02 million tons of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in June, up 0.8 per cent from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. Based on official estimates, June production was the highest in a single month since December, up 1.4 per cent from May. China's primary aluminium production from January to June was 17.89 million tons, up 1.7 per cent from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Statistics. It is estimated that China's average daily output of raw aluminum in June was 100667 tons, a record high and up from about 96000 tons in May.

[Li Shi International interim net profit 5 million-15 million yuan] Li Shi International announcement, based on the information currently available and the Group's preliminary review of the unaudited consolidated management accounts for the six months ended June 30, 2020, the Group is expected to record a meagre net profit ranging from RMB 5 million to RMB 15 million. Despite the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Group recorded a slight increase in business revenue from batteries and related projects during the relevant period. However, the group's recycled lead plant was affected by production disruptions for most of the medium term, and production could only resume in late May, resulting in an overall turnover decline of 4% to 8%.

[Yuntong Zinc roasting Plant: pay close attention to sulfuric acid to complete the annual plan 54.55%] in the first half of the year, all the cadres of the roasting plant overcame the difficulties such as the epidemic situation of Xinguan pneumonia, the complex and fine particle size of furnace charge, and the large stock of concentrate, and tamped down the basic management. pay close attention to all kinds of work, keep a close eye on the 95280-year struggle goal of the branch plant, and fulfill the annual plan of sulphuric acid output by 54.55% by June, achieving more than half of the time. Halfway through the mission.

[Chihong Zinc and Germanium Xinhu Mine in Tibet obtained approval for design review of safety facilities for mining production system] on July 8, Tibet Xinhu Mining Co., Ltd. received approval from the Department of Emergency Management of Tibet Autonomous region for the design of safety facilities for mining production systems above 5160 of the middle section of Xindong Zhongla lead-Zinc Mine in Tibet. The approval indicates that Xinhu in Tibet has the external conditions to carry out the resumption of underground production system. "View details

[Nandu Power plans to increase the construction of lithium batteries by 1.4 billion yards] A few days ago, Nandu Power announced that the total amount of funds raised by the company would not exceed 1.416 billion yuan, which would be used for annual 2000MWh5G communications and energy storage lithium battery construction projects, annual 2000MWh high energy density power lithium battery construction projects, new energy battery R & D center projects and supplementary liquidity. In addition, from the fourth quarter of 2019, the three major operators and towers began to significantly increase the purchase of 5G communications lithium batteries. In 2019, the sales and production of lithium-ion batteries in Nandu Power increased by 39.37% and 32.13% respectively over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in sales of communications lithium batteries and lithium energy storage systems.

[Xiamen tungsten industry's revenue fell 5.48% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year] Xiamen tungsten industry issued a quick report on its results. Revenue in the first half of 2020 was 7.924 billion yuan, down 5.48% from the same period last year; net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 233 million yuan, up 200.77% from the same period last year; and earnings per share was 0.1655 yuan.

The total amount control index of rare earth tungsten mining in 2020 has been issued! In order to protect and rationally develop superior mineral resources, in accordance with the relevant regulations on the management of specific types of protective mining, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will continue to be controlled in 2020. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the 15th on the total amount control index of rare earth tungsten mining in 2020. "View details

The world's largest silver ETF--iShares Silver Trust position increased by 159.34 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position is 16211.05 tons.

According to the latest report, Cape Town, South Africa is beginning to recover from three storms that have swept across the terrain, bringing cold conditions and snow on high mountains, with seas and waves exceeding 9 meters (30 feet). The port authority Transnet says it is closely monitoring the situation to determine when it is safe to resume operations. "View details

[notice on further tightening control measures in Tangshan] from July 16 to 18, the city was dominated by southerly and southeasterly winds, with high temperature and strong light, and a moderate pollution process with ozone as the primary pollutant was expected. In accordance with the requirements of the provincial department, on the basis of the control measures in July, the following control measures were taken from 16:00 on the 16th to 10:00 on the 18th: 1. The sintering machine retained by iron and steel enterprises has been reduced to 50% of the throttle production on the basis of the management and control measures in July, and the switching of the sintering machine is prohibited. 2. Production of casting and independent rolling will be suspended from 20:00 to 8 o'clock the next day. 3. Brick kiln, independent lime kiln stew furnace protection kiln. 4. Key vehicle users (10 or more vehicles per day) are prohibited from entering or leaving the factory area from 20:00 to 8: 00 the next day (except for safe production vehicles), and idle parking is prohibited; freight vehicles are prohibited from leaving the factory in the north-south plant area of Tangshan Iron and Steel Company and Tangyin Iron and Steel Co., and do a good job in driver protection. 5. Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port are prohibited from entering or leaving the port area from 18:00 on the 16th to 8: 00 on the 18th (except for vehicles of State 5 and above that protect people's livelihood materials). 6. Slag trucks and off-road mobile machinery will stop working from 20:00 to 8: 00 the next day. 7. Diesel trucks at or below the fourth grade are prohibited from passing through the prohibited areas of the city center and counties (cities and districts) during the whole period of time.

[South Africa: iron ore production rose 17.7% month-on-month in May] according to preliminary data released by the South African Bureau of Statistics, South Africa's iron ore mining production index increased by 17.7% month-on-month in May, while South Africa's nickel production increased by 486% month-on-month. South Africa's iron ore production fell 66.3 per cent in May compared with the same period last year, and the country's nickel production was 25.7 per cent lower than in the same month in 2019. In addition, the country's iron ore sales rose 10.3% in May from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis to 5.74 billion South African rand (US $343.67 million).

Although the new regional coronavirus outbreak has not yet affected the global mining industry, it is still possible that more mines will be closed as a result if the situation worsens. [275 mines around the world have been more focused on the demand side after the disruption of the outbreak] although the new regional coronavirus outbreak has not yet affected the global mining industry. The report concludes that for now, the supply-side story is basically over, and the impact of the new crown outbreak on the mining industry is now increasingly focused on the demand side. "View details

Macro focus

[central Bank Governor Yi Gang: the International Monetary Fund should use SDR to deal with the new crown epidemic] the people's Bank of China: the people's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang article "the International Monetary Fund should use SDR to deal with the new crown epidemic" said that since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the International Monetary Fund has successively taken a series of relief measures to help member countries deal with the epidemic. However, although the measure of universal distribution of SDR has been repeatedly discussed, it has not been implemented. It was a mistake. SDR is sometimes called "paper gold" and can be created quickly. The universal distribution of SDR is the jigsaw puzzle to be put together now.

[GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 3.2% economic growth in the second quarter from negative to positive] preliminary calculation shows that the GDP in the first half of the year is 45.6614 trillion yuan, and in terms of comparable prices, GDP in the first half of 2020 decreased by 1.6% compared with the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, it fell 6.8% in the first quarter from the same period last year, and increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. On a month-on-month basis, GDP grew by 11.5% in the second quarter.

ECB President Christine Lagarde: an ambitious and coordinated fiscal position is crucial. Fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary. The European Commission's recovery plan is strongly welcomed.

Economist Powell: the European Central Bank has shifted from "fighting the fire" to overseeing the recovery phase. Entering a new phase of dealing with the virus, more data is needed to take action. From now on, monetary policy decisions will be based mainly on the recovery of the economy to near potential and the outlook for inflation in the coming years.

Terminal information

[attracting Tesla to build a factory, Texas local government agreed to cut taxes by at least $14.7 million] Travis County, Texas officials voted on July 14 that if the country's electric car manufacturer Tesla builds a plant near Austin Airport, there will be a tax cut of at least $14.7 million. Tesla proposes to build a car assembly plant near Austin, where the Texas capital is located. Tesla may need to spend $5 million to buy the land and another $1.1 billion to build a factory, Consumer News and Business Channel reported on the 14th. The factory will be used to make Cybertruck pick-up trucks.

[Hyundai intensive meeting with Chinese and South Korean battery companies to put purchase orders in multiple baskets] it has been reported that Ningde Times will supply power batteries to South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group globally. Hyundai Motor responded today that China's Ningde era only supplied batteries to Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Yueda Kia and did not know the information about expanding supply. Ningde Times declined to comment on the news. Hyundai not only has the possibility of reaching global power battery cooperation with Ningde era, but also has frequent contact with Korean power battery companies. Recently, Zheng Yixuan, chief vice president of Hyundai Motor, successively met with the leaders of Samsung SDI, LG Chemistry and SKInnovation to discuss the cooperation of the power battery industry, the future research and development of batteries and the development of electric platforms.

[aiming at the comprehensive strategic cooperation of China Baowu SAIC Group in the fields of hydrogen energy and fuel cells] it was learned from the central iron and steel enterprise China Baowu that on the afternoon of July 15, two enterprises in Shanghai, China Baowu and SAIC signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation framework agreement. On the basis of previous long-term cooperation, the two sides will make full use of their respective technological and resource advantages and aim at comprehensive solutions for automotive materials, hydrogen energy utilization, industrial finance and other directions to expand the areas of cooperation. According to the agreement, China Baowu will give full play to the advantages of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, hydrogenation and other links to provide hydrogen energy guarantee and services for hydrogen-using units such as fuel cell stack and system development and car rental under SAIC; provide or coordinate the specific scenarios for the landing trial of fuel cell vehicles, and provide hydrogen charging and other supporting facilities for vehicle operation.

[investment in real estate development nationwide rose 1.9% from January to June compared with the same period last year] from January to June, national investment in real estate development totaled 6.278 trillion yuan, up 1.9% from the same period last year and down 0.3% from January to May. Of this total, residential investment totaled 4.635 trillion yuan, up 2.6 percent, or 2.6 percentage points higher than in January-May.

Related market

According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in July is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in September is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.

[about 4400 km of new railway lines are expected to be opened in 2020] according to the China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., about 4400 km of new railway lines are expected to be opened this year, including about 2300 km of high-speed railways.

[national railway infrastructure investment increased by 16.4% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year] it has been learned from the National Railway Group that in the first half of this year, 115 large and medium-sized infrastructure projects under construction resumed work and production, with a total of more than 8000 sites and more than 600000 entrants. Investment in fixed assets of railways nationwide reached 325.8 billion yuan, 3.8 billion yuan higher than that of the same period last year, an increase of 1.2 percent over the same period last year, of which national railway infrastructure investment reached 245.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7 percent over the same period last year. In the second quarter of this year, the country's investment in railway infrastructure reached 179.7 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4 percent over the same period last year, making up for the deficit in investment in the first quarter.

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: the decline in national shipbuilding completion in the first half of 2020 narrowed the growth of new ship orders] according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 16, from January to June 2020, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 17.58 million deadweight tons, down 10.6% from the same period last year. 10 percentage points lower than the May decline, of which sea ships were 4.64 million modified gross tons; The number of new orders for ships was 12.47 million deadweight tons, an increase of 3.4% over the same period last year, of which sea-going vessels were 3.95 million modified gross tons. As of the end of June, the order volume of hand-held ships was 76.54 million deadweight tons, down 6.3% from the same period last year, of which sea-going vessels were 25.63 million modified gross tons. In the first half of this year, China's shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders accounted for 37.2%, 67.5% and 48.2% of the world market share respectively in deadweight tonnage, continuing to take the lead in the world.

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