Home / Metal News / Precious Metals / [SMM analysis] crude oil futures are evenly matched and still need to pay attention to the epidemic situation in the later stage.
[SMM analysis] crude oil futures are evenly matched and still need to pay attention to the epidemic situation in the later stage.
Jul 16,2020 16:31CST
translation
Source:SMM
The recent trend of oil prices has entered a narrow consolidation stage, with the main contract of US crude oil fluctuating at US $40 for nearly a month in a row. The long-short forces are anxious, and the oil market seems to be waiting for new signals to guide them.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7 March 16: the recent oil price trend has entered a narrow finishing stage, the main U. S. crude oil contract for nearly a month in a row at 40 U.S. dollars upward fluctuations. The recovery of global industrial activity is obvious to all, coupled with the production reduction measures of oil-producing countries are the main driving force for the bulls. But the potential threat of a resurgence is driven by bears. The long-short forces are anxious, and the oil market seems to be waiting for new signals to guide them. As of press time, the main contract for US crude oil was 40.88 US dollars per barrel, down 0.78 per cent. The previous period crude oil 2008 contract was at 288.7 yuan per barrel, down 1.97%.

Crude oil inventories fell more than expected, confirming a rebound in demand. Data released by the US EIA during the New York session on Wednesday showed that US EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week ended July 10 actually reported a decrease of 7.493 million barrels, expected to decrease by 88000 barrels, and the previous value increased by 5.654 million barrels. And last week, domestic crude oil production in the United States fell by 10 million barrels to 11 million barrels per day. The EIA report shows that domestic crude oil production in the United States has been flat for three consecutive weeks. As US crude oil production remains at 11 million b / d and market demand for crude oil picks up, it helps to digest inventories and support oil prices.

In addition, China's demand for crude oil has rebounded. China imported 53.18 million tons of crude oil in June, up 34.4% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Statistics today. In the first half of the year, imports of crude oil were 269 million tons, an increase of 9.9 percent over the same period last year, an increase of 4.9 percent over the first quarter

But OPEC+ decided to relax its efforts to cut production, which is bad for oil prices. Allies such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and Russia have reportedly agreed to ease record oil supply cuts from August as the global economy slowly recovers from the new crown pneumonia epidemic. OPEC said production cuts would be officially reduced to 7.7 million barrels a day from August until December. Although some oil-producing countries with early overproduction will take compensatory production reduction measures, there are still some production gaps that cannot be made up.

Under the trend of a certain increase in crude oil supply, the rebound in demand is a key factor determining the trend of oil prices in the near future. The demand for crude oil is highly related to the epidemic, so the global epidemic remains an important concern for investors.

It is also worth noting that the outcome of the US election may determine the fate of an additional 5 million b / d of production. Sources said that if Biden is elected, the administration's foreign policy approach will be different from that of the Trump administration and may choose to engage in more negotiations and fewer sanctions against oil-producing countries such as Iran and Venezuela. According to statistics, the civil war in Libya and US sanctions have reduced the total production of the three oil-producing countries by nearly 5 million barrels per day from their peak in the past 20 years. If Biden wins in November, the Biden administration is likely to bring some production back to market, which would be bad for the oil market.

The latest poll released on Wednesday showed Biden leading Trump by 52% to 37%.

Scan the QR code and join the SMM metal communication group.

Crude oil
OPEC

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news