Distribution of Chinese Smelters

[SMM PGM Flash] Southern Palladium released an updated prefeasibility study on 13 October for its 70%-owned Bengwenyama PGM-chrome project in South Africa. The study lifts modelled post-tax net present value, at an 8% real discount rate and on a 100% project basis, to US$1.96 billion from US$857 million in its July 2025 optimised study. It projects a 39.1% internal rate of return and a US$329 million peak funding requirement, up from US$279 million. No new ore reserve was declared. The increase reflects earlier metallurgical work, a revised plant design and stronger commodity-price assumptions, rather than new mined output. The study assumes 85.6% chromite recovery and envisages about one million tonnes a year of chrome concentrate at full Stage 2 output. About 30% of its life-of-mine tonnes are inferred resources. The definitive feasibility study and project funding remain outstanding, so the economic figures remain forecasts.

[SMM Gold Flash] Thor Explorations' Segilola mine in Nigeria poured 15,515 ounces of gold in the third quarter, down from 19,153 ounces in the preceding quarter and 22,617 ounces a year earlier. The company said severe rainfall in late August disrupted mining and cut its 2026 production guidance to 70,000–72,000 ounces from 75,000–85,000 ounces. The plant processed 249,607 tonnes at an average grade of 2.10 grammes per tonne and 92.8% recovery. Thor sold 19,000 ounces during the quarter at an average realised price of US$4,297 per ounce, reporting revenue of US$81.7 million. Sales exceeded the quarter’s gold pour but do not indicate a recovery in mine output. The company maintained its 2026 all-in sustaining cost guidance of US$1,000–1,200 per ounce, which remains a forecast.

Precious metals showed an overall weak bottoming pattern this week, dipping to around $4,073/oz after September CPI beat expectations across the board. Macro headwinds dominated: the hotter-than-expected CPI lifted odds of an October rate hike, US Treasury yields held at a high of 5.2%, and the US dollar index broke above 102 to hit a new year-to-date high. Williams' dovish remarks and the US-Russia diesel deal provided only temporary relief, while central bank gold purchases and fiscal credit concerns built a long-term floor. Going forward, focus will be on Waller's speech and the US Fed's October FOMC meeting.