[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the risk of Sino-US trade fermented overnight Shanghai zinc opened high and left low.

Summary of the morning meeting of zinc in SMM on July 16th

Spot fundamentals

Shanghai: smelters ship goods normally, trading in the morning market remains active, traders are willing to receive goods, and quotations are gradually raised from about 50 yuan / ton to about 65 yuan / ton. Domestic and Shuangyan quotations are basically the same, and the market quotation in the second trading period is concentrated on rising water about 70 yuan / ton. the transaction is more difficult, and the lower reaches are still afraid of high wait-and-see and maintain demand purchasing. The price of domestic and Shuangyan is basically the same, and the market quotation is concentrated on about 70 yuan / ton in the second trading period, and the lower reaches are still afraid of high wait and see and maintain demand procurement. The main traders contributed to the transaction within the day. (bullish)

Ningbo: zinc prices adjusted slightly yesterday, but traders in Shanghai were more willing to raise prices. Traders in Ningbo market tried to raise prices, but the market was unwilling to pay the bill, and the rising water in the market was maintained near the quotation the day before yesterday. In the first trading session, Tiefeng reported a rise of 70 yuan per ton for the August contract, 60 yuan per ton for the August contract, and 80 yuan per ton for the August contract. Huize did not arrive. There was no obvious change in the follow-up market, the market was very light yesterday, downstream enterprises basically rarely participated in market trading, and the market turnover basically showed no signs of improvement compared with the day before yesterday. (bullish)

Guangdong: during the first trading session, at the initial stage, the holder tried to take advantage of the falling futures price and bid to ship the goods, but the market demand was still weak, and the later period began to adjust the price for shipment, and the market began to make a deal, but it was still mainly received by traders. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton to flat for the August contract of Shanghai zinc. In the second trading session, futures fluctuated in a narrow range, but the current price is still high, the downstream only needs to purchase, the demand has not improved, individual consignors offer low prices for shipments, and the market is generally traded. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton to Pingshui for the August contract of Shanghai zinc. (bullish)

Tianjin: yesterday, the weak consolidation of zinc in Shanghai, the spot market maintained a rising discount price, and the price was relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 110 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the August contract, and Baiyin quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Yunxi Daily quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Sihuan (delivered to) quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including out of the warehouse) quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Zinc prices were weakly consolidated yesterday, traders maintained rising water prices, and some traders shipped at low prices under the demand for capital return, resulting in poor overall shipments; downstream, absolute prices fell slightly yesterday, and downstream enterprises were not willing to receive goods, maintaining the need for weak purchases. On the whole, the turnover in Tianjin market was flat yesterday compared with the day before yesterday. (bullish)

Today's forecast zinc price: overnight Lun zinc recorded a small positive line, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a compression, below piercing the 5-day moving average support, KDJ indicators want to be dead fork. Overnight, LME inventory decreased by 225t to 122975 t, or 0.18%. Overnight market concerns about the recent dispute between China and the United States have intensified, and there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the prospects for overseas economic recovery, superimposed by crude oil to reduce production cuts, leading to a sharp intraday fall in crude oil that led to the weakening of Lunzem. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to macro changes. Overnight, Shanghai zinc recorded a small negative column, falling below the 5-day moving average, providing support below the 10-day moving average, pressing the upper track of Bollinger Road, and narrowing the red column of the MACD index again. Overnight, Shanghai zinc opened high and left low, non-ferrous general fell superimposed the outer disk downward drag, and the uncertainty of Sino-US currencies and Sino-US trade relations, market panic intensified, Shanghai zinc performance was weak, but the market expectations for strong consumption of infrastructure construction are expected to limit the downward space of Shanghai zinc.

Today's forecast: the price of lun zinc is expected to run in the range of US $2160 / ton. The contract price of Shanghai Zinc 2009 is expected to operate in the range of 17400mur17900 yuan / ton, and domestic zinc is expected to fall by 130yuan / ton.