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Review on spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on July 15th
Jul 15,2020 18:14CST
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Source:SMM
Review on spot Trading Day of SMM basic Metals on July 15th
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: today, Apanlon copper opened higher at $6540 / tonne, then adjusted around the daily moving average, during which it hit an intraday high of $6550 / tonne. However, the high position led the bulls to make a profit, and Luntong quickly fell below the daily average and barely stood at $6500, and then sorted out around $6505 / ton. In the afternoon, the bulls entered the market, Lun Copper soared about $30 / ton, but the momentum was not enough to fall again. Entering the European trading session, Lun Copper continued to fall as low as $6469.5 / ton. Lun Copper closed at 6489 US dollars / ton, down 11 US dollars / ton, or 0.17%. Copper in Geneva fell, mainly due to the growing tensions between China and the United States, which continued to spark investor concern, making it difficult for copper prices to continue to rise. At present, Lun copper negative, KDJ opening down expansion, but below still jump off multiple moving averages, copper prices are still in the upstream channel. In the evening, focus on the monthly rate of US industrial output and price index changes in June, the New York Federal Reserve manufacturing data in July, focus on the data to guide the US stock index and the dollar index, and test whether Lun Copper can regain its strength above the $6500 / tonne mark.

Today, the Shanghai Copper 09 contract opened at 52520 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening, the bulls increased their positions and pulled up the copper price in the short term, exploring a daily high of 52700 yuan / ton, but then the short positions increased and depressed the copper price, as the long positions continued to fall to 52260 yuan / ton. At this time, Kongping more copper prices rebounded, the center of gravity around 52430 yuan / ton position shock adjustment, until the midday close. Opening in the afternoon, bulls entered the market to drive up the copper price to 52610 yuan / ton, but the upward momentum was insufficient, and the market fluctuated and fell. At the end of the day, the bulls made a profit and left the market, and the market declined rapidly, closing at the lowest point of the day, 52120 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton, or 0.5%. During the day, the contract reduced its position by 734 to 110000, showing a long reduction in position, while the trading volume decreased by 36000 to 92000. The copper concussion in Shanghai fell during the day, mainly due to the cold macro mood. At present, the number of confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic continues to rise to nearly 13.5 million, and the escalating crisis of the new crown epidemic has further overshadowed the prospects of economic recovery. in addition, with increasingly strained relations between China and the United States, Trump publicly "persuaded" the European Union to boycott Huawei on the grounds of trade policy. with the United States escalating its crackdown, the British government announced today that it will stop buying new Huawei equipment and dismantle used Huawei equipment by 2027. In this case, risk aversion in the market re-accumulated, copper prices fell under pressure. Today, Shanghai copper negative, KDJ opening expansion, but the lower averages are still long arrangement, copper price callback space is limited. In the evening, waiting for the outer disk guidance, test Shanghai copper rose again to recover the decline. Today, the Shanghai Copper 2007 contract faces delivery. It opened at 52210 yuan / ton and closed at 52280 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton, or 0.29%. It was settled at 52410 yuan / ton, with a position of 3240 lots and a delivery volume of 16200 tons.

Today, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai quoted a price of 30 to 110 yuan / ton for that month's contract, 52370 yuan / ton to 52530 yuan / ton for Pingshui copper, and 52390 yuan / ton to 52550 yuan / ton for Shengshui copper. Copper in Shanghai continued to consolidate at a high level, rising slightly to around 52400 yuan / ton, an increase of about 300 yuan / ton. Today is the last trading day of 07 contract, the price difference between that month and every other month fluctuates violently, and the price spread in the morning market still fluctuates in the range of 40-70 yuan / ton. Most of the market has moved to 2008 contracts every other month, and the quotations are active, but according to the SMM copper price methodology, SMM is still bidding for 2007 contracts. The market offers a discount of 10 to 20 yuan per ton for 2008 contracts, and the market holds a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Entering the second section, the monthly price difference volatility intensified, the fluctuation expanded to 70,100 yuan / ton range, so traders expressed preference for discounted goods, after a round of active inquiry to buy, the holder raised the quotation, has been difficult to find discounted supply, flat copper concentrated in flat water ~ liter water 10 yuan / ton, good copper price rose to 20 yuan 30 yuan / ton, but the deal immediately showed a stalemate, wet method copper continued low discount 90 ~ 70 yuan / ton, wet method copper continued low price discount 90 ~ 70 yuan / ton, flat copper concentrated in flat water ~ liter water 10 yuan / ton, good copper price rose to 20 million yuan / ton, but the deal immediately showed a stalemate, wet method copper continued low price discount 90 ~ 70 yuan / ton. According to the price difference change, the 2007 contract quotation in that month is concentrated in the price range from 30 to 110 yuan / ton, due to the large price difference between two months, the price range from Pingshui copper to good copper is also on the large side. Today is the last 2007 contract trading day, the market spread has corrected and expanded, and the spot has temporarily shown a situation of rising water in an all-round way, but copper prices are still high, supply is still loose, and transaction difficulties have improved significantly for the time being. I am afraid that after the change of months, we can only maintain the pattern of a small rise in water, and the trend of supply and demand will also continue. In the afternoon, the market rose first and then suppressed, the spot rising water rose slightly, especially the good copper, because the supply of goods available was limited, so the good copper rose more to 40 cents 50 yuan / ton, while the flat copper rose only a little, rising 10 cents 20 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was still hovering at 52370 cents 52580 yuan / ton.

 

Aluminum: Lun Aluminum opened at US $1683 / ton this morning. In Asian session, it opened with a narrow range of volatility and soon hovered above the daily moving average, recording an intraday high of 1690 yuan / ton at around 13:30 in the afternoon. Roentale fell back in the afternoon and gave up its morning gains. It was quoted at US $1683.5 / ton as of 15: 00. During the European session, Lunal continued its downward trend, during which it recorded an intraday low of US $1683 / tonne, fluctuating around the daily moving average width after the European session, but the upper and lower limits of the range remained unchanged, rising US $4.50 / tonne to US $1687 / tonne as of 17:30. The day K is temporarily closed on a Xiaoyang line. The dollar index fell, which is expected to be dominated by strong shocks in the evening.

The main 2008 contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14465 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, a small number of bulls entered the market to test the aluminum price, and then quickly left the market. The aluminum futures price in the morning continued the trend of horizontal volatility in yesterday's night trading, fluctuating in a narrow range of about 14470 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, some short positions were reduced, aluminum futures prices ushered in a wave of rise, recording a intraday high of 14560 yuan / ton, but the high position was attacked by short positions, aluminum prices went down and gave up their gains, and the bulls hurriedly left at the end of the day. Shanghai Aluminum's 15-minute K line closed at a negative line, closing at 14475 yuan / ton. 08 contract day position decreased by 4354 to 137782 hands, the Shanghai Aluminum Index position decreased by 8497 to 406652 hands, the daily K closed at a small Yin line, down 0.07%, the decline was slower than yesterday, the center of gravity was close to the 5-day moving average, mainly long positions during the day. Bulls reduced positions for two consecutive days, aluminum futures prices further slightly down, the current electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still low, spot supply tension gives aluminum price support, spot-driven futures price logic remains unchanged. At the same time, the recent sharp fluctuations in disk prices and the reduction of positions over the past three days reflect the current lack of confidence on both sides of the long and short positions, and a high degree of vigilance for the current aluminum prices, and we still need to pay attention to the changes in disk capital flows in the future. and the appearance of bearish signals in the follow-up fundamentals. Today is the last trading day of the Shanghai Aluminium 2007 contract. Today, the closing price is 14665 yuan / ton, the settlement price is 14785 yuan / ton, the position is 9085 lots, and the delivery volume is 45425 tons.

Aluminum will rise and fall before noon. The spot price in Shanghai and Wuxi is between 14820 and 14840 yuan / ton, while the price in Wuxi is slightly higher, which is 75 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, and the morning discount is near Pingshui, 11; Aluminum fell back in the later period of 00, but most of the holders are reluctant to follow the sharp price reduction, the price adjustment space is only less than 20 yuan / ton, and the basic rising water to the plate is around 40 muri 60 yuan / ton, but there are not many holders who actually follow the quotation. The transaction price in Hangzhou is 14830 Mel 14850 yuan / ton. In the morning, traders made active inquiries, and the holders' willingness to ship goods was low and relatively high, and the transaction heat gradually increased after 10: 00, but in view of the fact that a large family still did not carry out a procurement plan in East China today, it was difficult for traders to actually increase their own trading volume, and the trading between the two sides was relatively general. Today, the downstream is mainly purchasing on demand, and the enthusiasm of receiving goods is significantly higher than that on Monday. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre today. Aluminum sinking in the afternoon, interval concussion is the main, the price of the holder is confused, between 14770, 14810 yuan / ton, the rising water on the disk is around 40muri 50 yuan / ton, only a small amount of transactions are made among traders, and there are few downstream.

 

Lead: within a day, lead is opened at US $1850 / ton. In the Asian session, trading was light, Lun lead fluctuated slightly along the 5-day moving average, reaching an intraday high of 1856.5 US dollars / ton for three times, and fell through the daily moving average and 5-day moving average in Europe. As of 1700, Lun lead fell to a temporary intraday low of 1846.5 US dollars / ton, down 4.50 US dollars / ton, or 0.24%. Lun lead k line entity moved below the 5-day moving average as a whole, the KDJ index converged, the technical side was generally empty, and today's LME lead inventory increased by 1775 tons to 63075 tons, which may further hinder the upward trend of Lun lead. On the other hand, the dollar index fell sharply today, leading to a boost. Looking at the July New York Fed manufacturing index and the week's EIA crude oil inventory, it is expected that lun lead is still likely to rise above the 5-day moving average.

During the day, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 15410 yuan / tonne. As Shanghai lead failed to reach 15440 yuan / ton twice at night, bulls reduced their positions one after another in early trading. Shanghai lead fell below the daily average line and adjusted horizontally along the line of 15375 yuan / ton. Near noon, Shanghai lead fell all the way to the intraday low of 15310 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the basic metal generally rose, and Shanghai lead rebounded, but it was blocked by the intraday moving average. Several attempts to break through were fruitless. It finally closed at 15345 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, or 0.13%. The position decreased by 286 to 22006, and the trading volume decreased by 16146 to 18358. Affected by the adjustment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the overall trend of Shanghai lead today is mainly shock, with trading volume reduced by nearly half, and the KDJ index also shows convergence, but there is still some distance below the k line from the 5-day moving average, and the overall center of gravity has not yet moved significantly downward. it is expected that Shanghai lead will be supported by the 5-day moving average in the short term. It should be noted that today's Yuanyue 09 contract and the main 08 contract price difference has been reduced to 60 yuan / ton, the main funds further backward. In addition, the 07 contract closed at 15455 yuan / ton today, with a settlement price of 15605 yuan / ton, 6820 positions and 34100 tons of delivery. today, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5395 tons to 38493 tons, and the 07 contract completed smooth delivery.

The price of Mulun lead is 15575 yuan / ton in Shanghai market, 50 yuan / ton in Shanghai lead 2007 contract, 15575 yuan / ton in the south of Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, and 50 yuan / ton in Shanghai lead 2007 contract. Lead fell back at a high level, and today is the delivery day, the price of the holder is not much, some maintain the discount price, at the same time, the downstream fear of falling wait and see, only just need to purchase, is still biased towards refinery supply, the spot market trading has not improved.

Guangdong market South China lead 15425 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead price flat quotation; Henan Jinli, Wanyang 15325 yuan 15375 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price discount 50 yuan / ton Henan Minshan 15450 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price up 25 yuan / ton quotation; Hunan Shuikoushan 15475 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price 50 yuan / ton quotation (trader); Jiang Copper 15475 yuan / ton, to SMM1# lead average price rise 50 yuan / ton quotation. Jinde 15350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 75 yuan / ton. Yunnan small factory 15025 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 400 yuan / ton. Lead prices fell high, downstream just need to purchase, today's futures delivery day, some refineries unplanned delivery sources to expand water shipments.

 

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $2200 / tonne, the pressurized daily moving average fluctuated lower to around US $2195 / tonne, market sentiment picked up in the afternoon, Lunzn Zinc repaired upward but was blocked at the US $2200 / tonne round mark, slightly adjusted the momentum, European trading session, straight up to 2220 US dollars / tonne finishing operation, as of 1630 Zinc closed up at 2220 US dollars / ton, up 28 US dollars / ton, or 1.28%. A small positive pillar of Lun Zinc, mainly driven by short positions, the current macro situation is not clear, the epidemic disturbance superimposed Sino-US relations is complex, there are no more stories about overseas zinc fundamentals, and we still need to pay attention to the guidance of macro data at night. it may still run around 2200 US dollars / ton shock.

During the day, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 17950 yuan / ton, and the intraday long and short game deadlocked. Zinc ran around the daily average line of 17880 yuan / ton, reaching a high of 17995 yuan / ton. It finally closed down 17855 yuan / ton, down 225yuan / ton, or 1.24%. The trading volume decreased by 10303 to 45035, and the position increased by 878 to 87624. Zinc received a small cross star, the center of gravity moved down and touched the 5th line support, slightly weak, and the high zinc price restrained downstream consumption, but the sharp increase in smelter output from the previous month has yet to hit the ground for inventory growth, suppressing market shorting force, and the outer disk of the European period is strongly pulled up, which may lead to a small upward revision of zinc in the evening. Intra-day delivery of Shanghai Zinc 2007 contract, opened at 18000 yuan / ton, closed down 17930 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 0.55%, trading volume decreased 700,000 lots to 355lots, position reduced 110lots to 4535 lots, a total delivery volume of 22675 tons, the settlement price of 17915 yuan / ton.

The mainstream turnover of zinc in Shanghai was 17920murl 18010 yuan / ton, while that of Shuangyan and Chihong was 17930,18010 yuan / ton. Shuangyan and Chihong reported rising water in August at 60rel 70 yuan / ton. Shuangyan and Chihong quoted water at 60rel 80 yuan / ton in August, and Shuangyan and Chihong quoted water at 17860rel 17950 yuan / ton. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract intraday finishing operation, the morning market closed at 17885 yuan / ton. The smelter shipped normally, trading in the morning market remained active, and traders were willing to receive goods. The quotation was gradually raised from about 50 yuan / ton to about 65 yuan / ton, and the domestic and Shuangyan quotations were basically the same. In the second trading period, the market quotation was concentrated on about 70 yuan / ton, and the transaction difficulty increased, and the downstream was still afraid of high wait-and-see to maintain demand procurement. The main traders contributed to the transaction within the day.

The mainstream transaction of Ningbo Gao was 17890 RMB17990 / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was narrowed to near Pingshui from 10 RMB / ton yesterday. The contract for ordinary brands of ordinary brands in Ningbo was around 2008 RMB / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands was reduced to near Pingshui. Zinc prices are slightly revised today, but traders in Shanghai are more willing to raise prices. Traders in Ningbo market try to raise prices, but the market is unwilling to pay the bill, and the rising water in the market is maintained near yesterday's quotation. In the first trading session, Tiefeng reported a rise of 70 yuan per ton for the August contract, 60 yuan per ton for the August contract, and 80 yuan per ton for the August contract. Huize did not arrive. There is no obvious change in the follow-up market, today's market is very light, downstream enterprises basically rarely participate in market trading, market turnover is basically no sign of improvement compared with yesterday.

Guangdong Zinc mainstream traded at 17840 RMB17950 per ton, and the quotation concentrated on a discount of 10 yuan per ton to level water for the Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract, while the discount of 60 yuan per ton for the Guangdong market was 10 yuan higher than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, at the initial stage, the holder tried to take advantage of the falling futures price to ship the goods at a straight price, but the market demand was still weak, and the later period began to adjust the price for shipment, and the market began to make a deal, but it was still mainly received by traders. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton to flat for the August contract of Shanghai zinc. In the second trading session, futures fluctuated in a narrow range, but the current price is still high, the downstream only needs to purchase, the demand has not improved, individual consignors offer low prices for shipments, and the market is generally traded. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a discount of 10 yuan / ton to Pingshui for the August contract of Shanghai zinc. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize and mainstream traded at 17840 RMB17950 per ton.

The mainstream turnover of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 17960mur18020 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 18010mur18050 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 19280 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract quoted water 100 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, Zijin contract quoted water around 150 yuan / ton in August, compared with Shanghai market, the price of water in Tianjin stock market dropped from 60 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton. Today, the weak consolidation of zinc in Shanghai, the spot market to maintain a rising discount price, the price is relatively uniform, the ordinary brand Bering News quoted a rise of 110 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Hongyi quoted a rise of 120 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Chi Hong quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 150 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Yunxi Daily quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, Sihuan (delivered to) quoted a rise of 100 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including out of the warehouse) quoted a rise of 60 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Today, zinc prices are weak, traders maintain rising water prices, some traders ship goods at low prices under the demand for capital return, and overall shipments are not smooth; downstream, absolute prices fell slightly today, and downstream enterprises are not willing to receive goods, maintaining the need for weak purchases. On the whole, the turnover in Tianjin today is the same as that of yesterday. Zinc ingots were traded around 17890 Mill 17930 yuan per ton.

 

Tin: Lunxi opened at US $17260 / tonne today, rose to US $17285 / tonne in the morning, then traded light, fell back to US $17268 / tonne in the afternoon, fell to US $17225 / tonne in the afternoon, rebounded and shook up after hitting bottom. As of 16PUR 45, the latest price of Lunxi is 17385 US dollars / ton, which is positive, the physical part is near the 5-day moving average, and the upper pressure level is expected to be around 17450 US dollars / ton.

Shanghai tin main 2009 contract opened last night at 142510 yuan / ton, after the opening of a small shock down, and then rebounded and swung under the influence of multi-short game, the end of the long left the market, there is a decline. It opened at 142620 yuan / ton in the morning, rose slightly to 142930 yuan / ton after opening, and then fluctuated downward under the influence of bulls leaving. After a slight rebound in the afternoon, the downside again reached the intraday low of 141700 yuan / ton, and rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. It closed at 142140 yuan / ton, down 600 yuan / ton, or 0.42%. 35916 hands were traded, 29767 positions were held, and 16 hands were reduced. The lower shadow line is supported by the 5-day moving average line, and the lower support level is expected to be at 141000 yuan / ton. Today, on the last trading day of the Shanghai tin 2007 contract, the Shanghai tin 2007 contract closed at 141200 yuan per ton, with a settlement price of 141700 yuan per ton, with 982 positions and delivery of 982 tons.

On the spot market, today's quotation is 1400000 RMB143000 per ton. Shanghai tin noodles this morning continued the decline late last night, the center of gravity moved lower than yesterday morning, the average net price fell 500 yuan / ton. Prices have declined, but manufacturers' shipments are still general, downstream just need to purchase, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, the overall spot market trading atmosphere is relatively weak. Liter discount, the Shanghai tin 2009 contract set Yunxi rose about 500yuan / ton, near Yunzi Pingshui, small brand discount around 2000 yuan / ton.

 

Nickel: the Lunni Asian market opened at US $13605 / tonne today and rose slightly to around US $13630 / tonne after opening, then dragged down to US $13495 / tonne by the nickel selling pressure in Shanghai. But it still rose around 13600 US dollars / ton before long. In the afternoon, Lenny rose to $13640 / ton after the shock, and then fell under pressure, only to rise back from below $13530 / ton to around $13580 after entering the European trading session. As of 17RO 20, Lunni temporarily closed at US $13605 / ton, up US $5 / ton, or 0.04%, and temporarily accepted Yin Cross Star. In the evening, pay attention to the monthly rate of US industrial output and the week's EIA crude oil inventory to test whether Lunni can continue to rise after consolidation.

The main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2010 opened high at 108840 yuan / ton in daily trading today. After a brief shock after opening, it gradually fell to 108400 yuan / ton. In the second trading session of the morning market, Shanghai Nickel fell as low as 107720 yuan / ton. Supported by the 5-day moving average, Shanghai Nickel quickly rebounded to 108800 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, after Shanghai Nickel briefly stood on the first line of 109000 yuan / ton, the bulls stopped their earnings and left the market one after another, and Shanghai Nickel finally closed at 108570 yuan / ton, down 450yuan / ton, down 0.41%. The trading volume was 691219 lots, and the position decreased by 4609 lots to 145344 lots. Today, the withdrawal of funds from the domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has hindered confidence in the commodity market, so the high consolidation of Shanghai and nickel. At night, we should pay attention to the change of the main position and be cautious about the price fluctuation caused by the long position. Today's 07 contract delivery closed at 107850 yuan / ton, with a settlement price of 107870 yuan / ton, a position of 9780 lots and a delivery volume of 9780 tons.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 107300 RMB108400 per ton. Nickel futures fluctuated at a high level today, users downstream of the spot market continued to wait and see, and the trading atmosphere in the market has not improved. Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quoted 500 to 600 yuan / ton, some in the market shipping willingness has increased, the quotation has been lower than yesterday, but the transaction is still not good. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract reported a rise of 200mur400 yuan / ton, in the market low-rise water quotation has increased compared with yesterday, today's transaction situation is slightly better than Russo Nickel. Today, Jinchuan ex-factory price is 107800 yuan / ton, manufacturers continue to actively ship goods, Jinchuan Shengshui is expected to be weak and stable in the future. Nickel beans to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract quoted price of 1500 yuan / ton.

 

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