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[SMM Metal Breakfast] the plunge in oil prices drags down the short-term diving of copper prices * the operating rate of electric furnaces is basically stable.
Jul 15,2020 06:13CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Metal Breakfast] the collapse in oil prices has dragged down the short-term diving of copper prices * the export situation continues to impact the demand for brass bars * Analysis of the reasons for the surge in copper concentrate and unwrought copper and copper import data in June * Vietnam 201 restriction order will be postponed * the total domestic electrolytic manganese production decreased by 21.92% month-on-month in the first half of 2020 * the electric furnace operating rate basically maintained stability * the arrival volume of hot rolls increased in all mainstream markets * June. Excavator sales up 24.2% year on year * Societe Generale Mining expects a loss of 170 million-200 million yuan in the first half of the year *
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[overnight market] the three major indexes of US stocks rose across the board and closed lower for non-ferrous metals.

Outlook for Today's Financial data: focus on EIA crude Oil inventories in the United States for the week to July 10

Today's focus

[general Administration of Customs responds to the implementation of the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement] General Administration of Customs: China and the United States are mutually important trading partners, and Sino-US economic and trade cooperation is also mutually beneficial and win-win. We are still keeping our promises and fulfilling the agreement in the face of the difficulties of dealing with a sudden epidemic. "View details

(the average daily increase of new coronal pneumonia cases in the United States in the last six days is more than 60, 000, which is the first since the outbreak in the United States.] the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that by 1600 EDT on July 13, there were 58858 new crown pneumonia cases in the United States, with a total of 3355457 confirmed cases, 351 new deaths and 135235 deaths. So far, the number of new crown pneumonia cases in the United States has increased by an average of more than 60292 per day in the last six days.

[SMM analysis: export situation continues to impact brass bar demand manufacturers are still pessimistic about the future] according to SMM survey data, the average operating rate of brass bar enterprises in June was 64.07%, down 0.64% from the previous month, and 8.34% lower than the same period last year. The impact of the overseas epidemic on domestic exports continues. Orders from enterprises with export-oriented products such as plumbing and valves downstream of brass bars remain weak. The performance of the brass bar industry declined again in June, but the decline in operating rate narrowed from the previous month and is slowly bottoming out. Relatively speaking, large enterprises have a variety of product routes, or go to the high-end market, the overall production order performance is more stable. "View details

[SMM analysis: the plunge in oil prices has dragged down the short-term diving of copper prices and still has upward momentum for a long time.] dragged down by the collapse in international oil prices, copper prices showed a sharp correction at the start of trading this morning. As of 9PUR 30, Lun Copper closed at US $6439.5 per ton, down US $106per ton, or 1.62 per cent; Shanghai Copper 08 contract closed at 51910 yuan per ton, down 450yuan per ton, or 0.86 per cent. Global liquidity easing is expected to superimpose the strength of copper's own fundamentals, and copper prices still have long-term upward momentum. "View details

[SMM analysis: a brief analysis of the reasons for the surge in imports of copper concentrate and unwrought copper and copper materials in June] the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs show that China imported 656000 tons of unwrought copper and copper materials in June and 436000 tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 50.5% and a year-on-year increase of 98.8%. China imported 1.594 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates in June and 1.69 million tons in May, down 5.7 per cent from a month earlier and up 8.7 per cent from a year earlier. "View details

[Guangdong Electrolytic Copper inventory] as of July 14, the inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong warehouses soared for two consecutive days, increasing by more than 7400 tons to 25500 tons in just two days, an increase of 41%. Affected by this, the rising water in Guangdong fell sharply for two consecutive days.

[SMM brief comment: Vietnam 201 restriction order will postpone the implementation of China's 200 series stainless steel export market] according to SMM, the performance of domestic 200 series cold and hot rolling transactions in the third quarter is difficult to be optimistic, and most traders said that they still need to operate flexibly and give priority to profits. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, the export volume of 200 series stainless steel has been reduced, coupled with the implementation of anti-dumping laws on stainless steel in some overseas countries. The information of Vietnam's delayed import of 201 is mainly good for China's 200 series export market in the later period. "View details

[SMM statistics: total domestic electrolytic manganese production decreased by 21.92% in the first half of 2020] according to SMM statistics, the total domestic electrolytic manganese supply in mid-July is significantly lower than that in June, and it is expected that the total supply in July will be low to about 95000 tons, and the total output in the first half of 2020 will be 597300 tons, a decrease of 21.92% compared with the total output from January to June in 2019. "View details

[southern rare earths adjust the prices of some rare earth oxides mixed] China Southern rare Earth Group Southern rare Earth International Trading Co., Ltd. announced the latest listing prices of medium and heavy rare earth oxides, and the prices of some rare earth oxides have been adjusted. In terms of price changes, europium oxide is listed at 300000 yuan / ton, up 40, 000 yuan / ton over the previous period; gadolinium oxide is listed at 178000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton; holmium oxide is listed at 420000 yuan / ton, down 10, 000 yuan / ton; lutetium oxide is listed at 4.7 million yuan / ton, up 50, 000 yuan / ton over the previous period. "View details

SMM Hot Volume: there is an increase in the volume of goods in all mainstream markets. The inflection point is just around the corner. Mainstream market resources are expected to arrive at 183000 tons this week, an increase of 32000 tons over last week. Recently, the mainstream markets have varying degrees of increment, especially the pressure on the supply side of the market has increased compared with the previous period. "View details

[SMM exclusive: basic stability of electric furnace operating rate] according to the exclusive survey of SMM, as of July 14, the operating rate of 34 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74%, an increase of 0.76% over the same period last week. With the recent warming of market sentiment in central China (mainly Henan), which was relatively concentrated in overhaul last week, the pressure on factories and warehouses eased slightly and resumed production one after another, leading to a slight pick-up in the operating rate this week. "View details

[SMM brief comment: excavator sales rose 24.2% year on year in June to support machinery demand again.] according to the industry statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics from January to June 2020 sold a total of 170425 sets of excavating machinery products, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year. In June, a total of 24625 sets of excavating machinery products of all kinds were sold, an increase of 62.9% over the same period last year. Sales in the domestic market were 21724 units, an increase of 74.8% over the same period last year. Export sales were 2901, up 7.6 per cent from a year earlier. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[African Copper Development Association calls on South Africa to increase the scale of waste copper recycling] Evert Swanepoel, executive chairman of the African Copper Development Association (CDAA), said in an interview that due to the limited domestic copper production in South Africa, South Africa should give priority to copper recycling to ensure adequate copper stocks as the economy shifts to a more energy-efficient economy and is less dependent on fossil fuels. "View details

[general Administration of Customs: China imported 1.594 million tons of copper ore and concentrate in June] China imported 1.594 million tons of copper ore and concentrate in June, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday. From January to June, China imported 10.84 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, an increase of 3.0 per cent over the same period last year. The data also show that China's export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June was 354038.1 tons, and that of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to June was 2365895.4 tons.

Recently, the research group of Guangdong Shipbuilding Association came to Guangdong Aomei Aluminum Co., Ltd., which is located in Sanshui District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province. Wang Linsheng, vice president of Australian Alcoa, warmly received the research group and his party. Alcoa is a large aluminum extrusion company invested by Malaysian listed company Press metal Berhad, with production and sales bases in Europe, the Middle East, Australia, North America and Kuala Lumpur. Mainly produces a variety of aluminum processing products, in the current scale, the annual output has reached 120000 tons, and has an annual output of 50, 000 tons of deep processing capacity.

[Ningbo Luwei plans to build an aluminum hub production base] recently, Zeng Chun, secretary of the Dongxiang District CPC Committee in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province, and his party visited Ningbo Jingyi Group and its subsidiary Ningbo Luwei Automobile Wheel Industry Co., Ltd., carried out accurate investment and docking work, and discussed a forged aluminum alloy wheel production base project with an investment of 2 billion yuan. Dong Xiangyi, chairman of Luwei Company, said that he will visit Dongxiang in the near future to further discuss cooperation on the landing of the project. Ningbo Luwei Automobile Wheel Industry Co., Ltd. was established in 2015, under the Ningbo Lean Group's wholly-owned subsidiary, specializing in the production of aviation grade material 6061 series forged aluminum alloy wheels, truck wheels and so on.

[Yunnan Yanshan annual output of 1.08 million tons of electrolytic aluminum project is expected to be electrified in August] the Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park of Yanshan Industrial Park in Yanshan County began construction in December last year. At present, the site leveling, water, electricity, roads, pipeline relocation and other work is being carried out in an orderly manner, and the first phase of the 1.08 million-ton electrolytic aluminum project is expected to be put into production in August this year.

[Societe Generale Mining: expected first-half loss of 170 million-200 million yuan] Societe Generale Mining announced that the company expects a net profit loss of 170 million-200 million yuan in the first half of the year, compared with a loss of 78.0417 million yuan in the same During the reporting period, affected by the pneumonia epidemic infected by the new coronavirus, the company and its subsidiaries returned to work late, and the production and sales of the company's main products decreased compared with the same period last year, resulting in a decline in operating profits compared with the same period last year.

[Nandu Power: planning to raise no more than 1.42 billion yuan] Nandu Power announced that the company plans to raise no more than 1.42 billion yuan for the annual 2000MWh5G communications and energy storage lithium battery construction project, the annual 2000MWh high energy density power lithium battery construction project, the new energy battery R & D center project and supplementary liquidity.

[the ironmaking and steelmaking project of Baosteel Desheng Hot Rolling Hot Acid Line will be put into production in the fourth quarter of next year] it is reported that the planning and construction of the project is the most key move to solve the development of Desheng of Baosteel, and the progress of the construction of the green industrial base project in the early stage has been affected by the epidemic. In the later stage, we should seize the construction period on the premise of ensuring quality and safety, concentrate resources to speed up the project construction, and ensure the commissioning of Baosteel Desheng 1780 hot rolling and 1600 pickling hot load in the fourth quarter. The ironmaking and steelmaking project of Desheng of Baosteel will be put into full operation in the second quarter of next year, in order to completely solve the problems of single structure and specification, unstable quality, mismatch with cold rolling production line and lack of market competitiveness. strive to achieve production, standards and efficiency as soon as possible.

[Minmetals rare earths: first-half net profit increased by 189% muri 262% compared with the same period last year] Minmetals rare earths issued a performance forecast on the evening of July 14, with an estimated first-half net profit of 140 million yuan to 175 million yuan, an increase of 189.30% Mui 261.63% over the same period last year. Up to now, Ganxian Hongjin rare Earth Company, a separate enterprise owned by the company, has received a total of 155 million yuan in relocation compensation and relocation rewards. during the reporting period, the company recognized asset disposal income of about 69.82 million yuan and non-operating income of about 25.37 million yuan according to the progress of relocation liquidation. In addition, the company's main merchandise sales gross margin increased year-on-year and the relocation of inventory surplus, also contributed to the pre-increase in performance.

[Xiamen Tungsten Industry: plans to spin off the holding subsidiary Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng into Kechuang Board listing] Xiamen Tungsten Industry announcement, the company intends to spin off the holding subsidiary Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng") to Shanghai Stock Exchange Kechuang Board for listing. After the completion of this spin-off and listing, the company's ownership structure will not change, and will still maintain the controlling stake in Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng.

[general Administration of Customs: China's iron ore imports rose 9.6% from January to June compared with the same period last year] China imported 547 million tons of iron ore from January to June, up 9.6% from a year earlier, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday. China imported 101.68 million tons of iron ore in June. China exported 3.7 million tons of steel in June and 28.7 million tons from January to June.

[China Iron and Steel Association: social inventory of steel continued to increase 2.7% to 12.48 million tons in early July] in early July, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 20 cities was 12.48 million tons, an increase of 330000 tons, or 2.7%, over the previous ten-day period, and the growth rate was expanded; compared with the peak in early March, it decreased by 7.73 million tons, down 38.2%, and increased by 5.67 million tons or 83.1% compared with the beginning of the year. "View details

Macro focus

[the Ministry of Finance decided to issue 50 billion yuan of special treasury bonds against epidemic in 2020 for the third time] the Ministry of Finance decided to issue special treasury bonds against epidemic in 2020 for the third time (the first phase). This treasury bond plans to continue issuing 50 billion yuan, with an actual face value of 50 billion yuan. The starting time and coupon rate of the renewed treasury bonds are the same as those of the 2020 epidemic-resistant special treasury bonds (the first issue), that is, the starting date is June 19, 2020, with an annual coupon rate of 2.41%. Interest is paid on June 19 every year (holidays are postponed, the same below), the principal is repaid and the last interest is paid on June 19, 2025. The renewal price determined by bidding is 98.88 yuan, equivalent to an annual rate of return of 2.69%.

[Belgian experts warn: there has been a second wave of new crown pneumonia in Europe] according to local time news on the 14th, Belgian epidemiologist Pierre Van Damme said that there has been a second wave of new crown pneumonia in Europe, and he is worried that Europe has lost control of the new crown virus. Infection is increasing in more and more parts of Europe, but until a few weeks ago, the situation in Europe was good and the epidemic across Europe was well under control, Dam said. He believes that the rebound in the epidemic is related to the implementation of the lifting measures too quickly, to this end, "all parties must take very strict measures, or Europe will soon lose everything it has won."

[Fauci: the United States failed to emphasize the importance of masks in time] on July 14, local time, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that US health officials made "mistakes" in communicating the benefits of wearing masks to the public in the early stages of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, damaging the "credibility" of masks as a public health tool.

According to media reports, the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh announced on the 14th that the state of Uttar Pradesh would once again impose a comprehensive blockade from July 16 to 31 to curb the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The state announced that all shops, shopping malls and religious sites will be closed during the blockade period, and only daily necessities stores and pharmacies will be allowed to open. The Bihar government explained that the state had to impose a blockade because of the surge in new cases of crown pneumonia in the state. On the 14th, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the state reached 18853, and the number of new cases has exceeded 1000 for four consecutive days.

Terminal information

[Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association: the epidemic has worsened the Indian automobile industry, which will take 3-4 years to recover.] on July 14, data released by the Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association (Siam) showed that factory shipments of family cars in India fell 57.98% in June from a year earlier to 55497 units, while factory shipments of multi-purpose vehicles fell 31.16% year-on-year to 46201 vehicles. At present, the market demand is only 40% of the same period last year. 50%. Rajan Wadra (Rajan Wadhera), president of the (Siam) of the Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association, said it would take at least four years for the Indian auto industry to reach the 2018 level of car sales without government stimulus.

[Hyundai Motor responds to the "Green New deal": strives to occupy more than 10% of the electric vehicle market in five years) Zheng Yixuan, chief vice chairman of South Korea's Hyundai Automobile Group, attended the government's "Korean version of the New deal" comprehensive planning national report meeting on the 14th to report on Hyundai's green new policy strategy.

[BAIC New Energy sales fell 88.5% in June compared with the same period last year] on July 11, BAIC Blue Valley issued a production and sales express for June. BAIC New Energy, a subsidiary of BAIC Blue Valley, sold 3008 vehicles in June, compared with 26072 in the same period last year, down 88.5 per cent from a year earlier. Car sales in the first half of the year were 14700, compared with 65159 in the same period last year, down 77.44 per cent from a year earlier.

[Tesla will launch a rear-wheel drive version of Model Y with a range of nearly 500km] on Sunday, local time, Elon Musk (Elon Musk), chief executive of electric carmaker Tesla, tweeted that the company would launch a more affordable rear-wheel drive version of Model Y with a range of nearly 500km. The upcoming version will be Tesla's first single-motor model for the all-electric crossover SUV, with an entry price expected to be around $40, 000.

[Tesla Berlin Giga4 estimates that 500000 electric cars are produced each year.] Tesla appears to be interested in optimizing its production process in Berlin Gigafactory and obtaining environmental permission from electric car manufacturers, which will employ 10500 workers for the soon-to-be-built plant. It is reported that with so many employees, Tesla hopes to produce as many as 500000 cars a year at the site. The plant is expected to produce Tesla's latest ModelY for the European market. At present, Tesla's final environmental permit is still under formal approval, but the company has begun to build large-scale facilities. "View details

Related market

[1.29 trillion yuan of total investment for flood control and drought relief of 150 major water conservancy projects] on 13 July, the New State Council Office held a regular briefing on the policy of the State Council. it sent a clear signal that the code and speed of major water conservancy projects will be accelerated: it will be arranged for 150 major water conservancy projects, with a total investment of about 1.29 trillion yuan, which can drive direct and indirect investment of about 6.6 trillion yuan.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq pledge to abide by the oil production reduction agreement. Saudi and Iraqi energy officials said on the 13th that the two countries will fully abide by the oil production reduction agreement reached this year.

[general Administration of Customs: import and export in the first half of the year is better than expected] the General Administration of Customs released data on the 14th that in the first half of the year, the total value of imports and exports of Chinese goods was 14.24 trillion yuan, down 3.2 percent from the same period last year, or 1.7 percentage points lower than in the previous five months. Of this total, exports totaled 7.71 trillion yuan, down 3 percent, while imports totaled 6.53 trillion yuan, down 3.3 percent. In the first half of the year, foreign trade imports and exports were better than expected, and both exports and imports achieved positive growth in June.

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