[SMM Hot Rolling Weekly] after a rapid rise, the spot price is expected to consolidate at a high level next week.

China’s lithium carbonate output was 18,609 mt in February, a month-on-month decrease of 2% but a year-on-year increase of 51%.

According to SMM survey, the operating rates of magnesium powder plants were suppressed under the impact of Beijing Winter Olympics. Some plants in Tianjin and Shanxi cut the production, and the overall output declined by 30%.

SMM data shows that domestic polysilicon output stood at 42,800 mt in November, an increase of 5.9% month on month and 20.2% year on year.

In October 2021, global crude steel output in the 64 countries and regions included in the WSA statistics totalled 145.7 million mt, down 10.6% compared to October 2020. 1,607 million mt of crude steel were produced globally in the January-October, up 5.9% year-on-year.

China's refined tin output stood at 14,443 mt in October, up 10.95% from September.

Lead prices bottomed out after the settlement as bears sold out positions. Domestic lead concentrate supply remained tight, and the quotations were chaos, but the smelters did not reduce production significantly. The primary lead supply was sufficient.

The State Council of China established a task force to curb unreasonable price increases for commodities in a bid to prevent transmission to consumer prices. As such, SHFE copper prices fell for three consecutive days.

US CPI far exceeded market expectations, triggering market concerns that the US will tighten liquidity ahead of schedule. As a result, the US dollar index stopped falling and rebounded. The decline in the US dollar index is likely to be limited, weighing on copper prices in the short term. Informal financing in China fell short of expectations in April

The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at 19,800 yuan/mt last week and closed at 19,315 yuan/mt, down 540 yuan/mt or 2.72%. Longs reduced positions by 92,000 lots to 179,000 lots. LME aluminium dropped 3.79% last week. The outlook for market liquidity is not as optimistic as earlier. The Fed has maintained its stance over monetary easing policy. However, the increase in US PPI in April was higher than expected, triggering market concerns of inflation. Commodity prices fell last Friday after the State Council sent a signal that it would effectively respond to the overheating in commodity prices. 

The SHFE/LME copper price ratio fell to a three-year low last week as LME copper outperformed SHFE copper prices, expanding import losses. Some smelters have begun to export as export profit occurred. With increased reverse arbitrage operations and exports, SHFE copper prices are expected to strengthen this week.