SMM7 March 10: today, most of the non-ferrous market rose, but due to the current pullback in the stock market, most futures fell, and many varieties of the non-ferrous market showed an inverted V trend. Today, the rise of zinc in Shanghai has narrowed, and the recent rebound in the zinc market more reflects the rebound in risk appetite on the capital side and the supplementary rising behavior after the annual balance of supply and demand has been revised. However, from a fundamental point of view, the zinc market has a seasonal weakening trend, superimposed by the increasingly severe flood situation in the south may affect downstream construction, whether the follow-up rally can continue to be further observed. In terms of data, according to SMM, as of Friday, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Qidi was 212400 tons, down 4200 tons from last Friday and 5300 tons from Monday. "check the details of the inventory of 47000 tons of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, an increase of 2000 tons over last week." in terms of aluminum, it is reported that Japanese aluminum buyers have set the aluminum rising water for the July-September quarter at 79 US dollars per ton. It was down 3.7% from the previous quarter, as the new crown epidemic hit demand. Aluminium rose $82 a tonne in the April-June quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly decline, the lowest level since the October-December 2016 quarter and below producers' initial offer of $85. Japan is the largest importer of aluminium in Asia, and the premium that Japanese buyers agree to pay each quarter on the spot price of (LME) on the London Metal Exchange has become an Asian pricing indicator.
Black iron ore fell slightly, hot coil threads fell 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. Black is under pressure, and the demand for building materials, which is weakening due to seasonal influence, begins to bottom out. Overall supply and demand across the country are weak, and demand in some areas is the first to rebound. The recent strong performance of iron ore is mainly due to the month-on-month decline in shipments in Australia and Brazil, the slight accumulation of port inventories, the high volume of open ports, and the tight supply pattern. Outbreaks are raging overseas, and outbreaks in India and Brazil are hardly optimistic. The Australian fiscal year ends and the annual routine maintenance begins. In addition, the weather improved in the later period, the downstream demand recovered, and the iron ore is expected to remain the same.
Crude oil fell 2.34% in the previous period. Today's EIA report said it raised its forecast for crude oil demand in 2020, but warned that the new crown pneumonia outbreak posed a risk to future prospects. IEA raised its crude oil demand forecast to 92.1 million barrels a day, up 400000 barrels from last month, saying demand fell less than expected in the second quarter. "while there is no doubt that progress has been made in the oil market, the large number of cases of new crown pneumonia, which is increasing in some countries, reminds us that the epidemic has not been brought under control and the risks to the market outlook are almost certainly downward," IEA said in its monthly report. The IEA says the easing of blockades by many countries has led to a strong rebound in fuel supplies in May and June and is likely to rebound in July.
As of today's day close:
Today's capital flow
Commodities are green, fat, red and thin, and the Mandarin Commodity Index has outflowed nearly 2.3 billion funds. Yesterday's spectacular non-ferrous and precious metals were sold off, of which the outflow of Shanghai silver reached more than 900 million, and the blood loss of Shanghai copper and nickel was both around 500 million. Energy chemicals fell at the front, asphalt reduced nearly 30,000 hands, lost nearly 400 million funds, crude oil plate was rejected by nearly 500 million funds.
A brief comment on SMM analysts on July 10th
Lead: during the day, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 15115 yuan / ton. In early trading, basic metals generally rose, and bulls increased their positions. Shanghai lead briefly rose to an intra-day high of 15175 yuan / ton, under pressure of 15180 yuan / ton to give up the increase, and was supported by the daily average line. Short sellers made profits, long low positions increased positions, Shanghai lead rose again, and generally fluctuated around 15145 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, short sellers dropped again, and Shanghai lead fell through the daily moving average. A small consolidation near 15075 yuan / ton below closed at 15070 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton, or 0.03%. The position decreased by 6916 to 25225 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 6916 to 27094 hands. Shanghai lead recorded a short negative line, which fluctuated sharply along the intraday moving average today. It should be noted that warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1388 tons to 20314 tons, 07 contract positions decreased by 675 to 7255 tons, and the price difference between 07 contracts and main 08 contracts widened to about 405 yuan / ton. The situation of forcing positions has eased but still exists. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to fluctuate at a high level around 15100 yuan / ton at night. Lead prices in Shanghai remain strong in the short term.
Nickel: the main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2010 opened at 105650 yuan / ton today. After the opening, the short position was tested, and the pressure on Shanghai Nickel fell to around 105400 yuan / ton and gradually returned steadily. At about 11:00, the short-term confidence was not enough to reduce the position and leave the market, and Shanghai Nickel gradually strengthened, reaching near the daily average line of 106500 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the Shanghai Nickel jump opened as low as 105940 yuan / ton, but due to the approaching weekend, the long and empty also had no intention of falling in love with the war, and slowly left the market in a flat position, causing Shanghai Nickel to shake down and finally closed at 105450 yuan / ton, down 1810 yuan / ton, or 1.69%. The trading volume was 912928 lots, and the position decreased by 10750 lots to 134331 lots. After continuous high-level shocks in Shanghai this week, due to the risk aversion and departure of funds near the weekend, Shanghai Nickel vomited a rise in the week, recording a mid-negative column. At present, the main long positions are still present, continue to pay attention to the changes in positions at night, and it is expected that after returning to the market next week, after Shanghai Nickel is consolidated at the first line of 105000 yuan / ton, it will still launch an upward breakthrough with the pressure of 108000 yuan / ton as the target.
Tin: the main tin 2009 contract in Shanghai opened last night at a high of 141700 yuan / ton, then fluctuated downward under the influence of bulls leaving the market, fell sharply by 139600 yuan / ton in mid-market, and then bottomed out to close at 140320 yuan / ton. It opened at 140500 yuan / ton in the morning, and then fluctuated all the way down under the alternating influence of bulls leaving and bears entering the market. It closed at 138900 yuan / ton, down 1980 yuan / ton, or 1.41%. The trading volume was 45140 lots, the position was 29567 lots, decreased 507 hands, and the day showed a long overcast line. The physical part is located near the 5-day and 10-day moving average, and the lower support level is expected to be near 137500 yuan / ton in the middle rail of the Bolin belt.
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