SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes on July 8: there was a slight correction in yesterday's futures. Lomalco closed yesterday at $1635 / ton, unchanged from the previous day. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2008 contract fell 0.85%, down 120 yuan / ton, to close at 13995 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.18% to 96.958.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the real-time data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of July 7, 1400 Beijing time, there were a total of 11.6223 million confirmed cases and 538000 deaths worldwide. On July 7, local time, the US Congress officially received a notice from the Trump administration to withdraw from the WHO. (bearish) 2) the EU expects the eurozone economy to contract by 13.5 per cent in the second quarter, with GDP growth of-8.7 per cent in 2020 and-7.7 per cent in May. Among them, the economies of Spain, France and Italy will shrink by more than 10% in 2020. U.S. API crude stocks rose by 2.05 million barrels in the week to July 3, and are expected to decrease by 3.4 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 8.156 million barrels. China's foreign exchange reserves in June were 3.1123 trillion US dollars, with an expected value of 3.12 trillion US dollars, with a previous value of 3.10169 trillion US dollars. China's gold reserves were at 62.64 million ounces (about 1948.32 tons) at the end of June, unchanged from the previous month. (neutral)
Fundamentals: 1) SMM July 7: recently, due to the lack of third-quarter negotiations at the end of the second quarter, Japan's quarterly aluminum contract premium negotiations, which traditionally determine the trade benchmark in the Asian market, are under pressure again. (neutral) 2) strong bullish mood in the alumina market yesterday, several large-scale transactions landed in the afternoon, the price center of gravity continued to rise compared with the previous day, alumina plants generally hesitate to sell. (Lido waste aluminum) 3) scrap aluminum: on July 6th, the Q3 batch volume of traditional six types of waste aluminum was announced, even though the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said last week that the approval volume would be reduced in the second half of the year, some enterprises indicated to the SMM that their approval volume had not decreased compared with Q2, and in terms of the published quantity, even a small number of enterprises had slightly increased for this purpose. 4) passenger Association: in June this year, the average daily retail sales of major passenger car manufacturers fell by 8% compared with the same period last year, and the retail progress rate was on the low side, reflecting that although retail sales in the car market grew month-on-month, the growth momentum was not very strong. (bullish)
Yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 14400 and 14420 yuan / ton, while the price in Wuxi was between 14430 and 14440 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the previous day's price. The rising water was concentrated between 40 yuan / ton and 20 yuan / ton in Wuxi. The spot price in Wuxi was not changed compared with Shanghai, and the price was 20 yuan / ton higher than that in Shanghai. A large family received goods normally yesterday, but the actual transaction was still dominated by the supply of goods in Shanghai, and the holder actively shipped the goods, but the relative price, the willingness to adjust the price was not high, the enthusiasm of the middleman was general, the transaction between the two sides was slightly deadlocked, and some traders gave feedback. because downstream processing plants prefer brands to be out of stock, in the context of recent high aluminum prices, the willingness to buy goods downstream is not obvious and there is not much to receive goods in the near future. The overall transaction in East China was poor yesterday. In the afternoon, aluminum first suppressed and then rose, and the price quoted by the holder was between 14350 and 14370 yuan / ton. Near the flat water on the disk, the market was light and there was almost no deal. This morning, spot transactions were concentrated around 20 yuan / ton of rising water for that month.
Conclusion: from a macro point of view, the economy of Europe and the United States is expected to shrink in the second quarter, the threat of the epidemic is still serious, and the economic uncertainty given by the withdrawal of the United States from WHO has increased. From a fundamental point of view, the price of raw material alumina has continued to rise recently, and the willingness to sell the price is strong, and it is still bullish in the short term. Yesterday, the supply of electrolytic aluminum in East China is still tight, and the impact of imported aluminum ingots in the South China market is more obvious. By the impact of imported aluminum ingots superimposed downstream fear of high sentiment, aluminum prices upward trend may be adjusted.
