[SMM brief Review] supply falls again, iron ore leads the rise in black series.

Published: Jul 07, 2020 15:59 (GMT+8)

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[SMM summary review: supply falls back again iron ore leads up black series] Iron ore has not ushered in an absolute strong period now, mainly fluctuating within a narrow range of 730mi 780. Mid-term until the end of the rainy season in most parts of the country in the middle of this month, after the release of downstream demand for building materials, iron ore may usher in a rebound.

SMM7 March 7: a large part of the metal market closed higher today, black iron ore once again led the rise, as of the day close, iron ore 2009 contract rose 2.68% to 767 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 25862.

Today's sharp rise in iron ore is mainly due to the decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil and the tightening of imports to boost futures prices. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 93 ships arrived at eight major ports in China from June 28 to 7.4, with an estimated arrival volume of 15.79 million tons, a decrease of 400000 tons compared with the previous period. During the period, Australia's outbound shipments dropped by 860000 tons to 17.56 million tons compared with the previous period, and the proportion of Australian shipments to China decreased in the current period. Brazil's departure from port fell by 970000 tons to 6.9 million tons in the current period compared with the previous period. The short-term double drop in the delivery of Australia-Pakistan Iron Mine supports the price of iron ore.

It is worth noting that the current downstream steel demand has not been released, the current southern rainy season led to a weakening of timber consumption, coupled with the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan, iron ore still has a downward risk. And according to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate was 90.16% in the first week of July, falling for three consecutive weeks. Under the double pressure of rising costs of steel mills and falling steel prices, profits of steel mills continue to be compressed. In the case of poor profits, some steel mills in North and Central China carry out routine annual inspection of blast furnaces, driving the operating rate of blast furnaces to continue to decline slightly. Therefore, iron ore has not ushered in an absolute strong period, mainly in the 730Mel 780 range of narrow fluctuations. Mid-term until the end of the rainy season in most parts of the country in the middle of this month, after the release of downstream demand for building materials, iron ore may usher in a rebound.

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