7.7 铜晨会纪要
Macro aspect: 1) tracking of the new crown epidemic: the growth rate of new crown cases in the United States exceeded the weekly average on Monday, and the infection coefficient in New Jersey reached a 10-week high. The mayor of Atlanta was diagnosed with infection. But the growth rate of cases in Arizona, Florida and Texas has slowed. Infectious disease expert Fauci said the new crown vaccine may only provide "limited" protection. [bearish] 2) boosted by a restart of the economy, the US ISM services index rose to a four-month high in June, returning to the expansion zone above 50. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper in Guangdong was quoted at 44100 yuan / ton ~ 44400 yuan / ton on July 6, which was the same as the previous trading day. The price difference of refined copper was 2041 yuan / ton, which was narrowed by 110 yuan compared with the previous trading day. Copper prices fluctuated in a narrow range yesterday, and the overall high copper price was still good for the scrap industry, with the source of waste copper flowing to downstream manufacturers. According to SMM, the price of scrap copper rods in Jiangxi is deducted by about 1000 yuan on the disk, and the advantage over refined copper rods is still huge. 2) the warehouse receipt for imported copper on July 6 was quoted at US $85 per ton, with an average price of US $5 per ton lower than last Friday, while the bill of lading quoted US $76 per ton, with an average price of US $2.50 per ton lower than last Friday. LME0-3 has a premium of US $6.50 / ton and an import loss of around 300RMB / ton. LME spot price gradually strengthened, has now changed to the back structure, the domestic back structure narrowed to less than 100 yuan / ton, the price continues to weaken, and the import loss has expanded again. The demand in the foreign trade market was lighter yesterday and there were few enquiries. The number of offers from the holder is limited, and most of them maintain the offer last Friday, and the buyer's scruples are weaker than the price, and the domestic trade discount is at a low level. In the face of the current offer, it is prudent to wait and see, and the deal is deadlocked. On the whole, the wait-and-see mood between buyers and sellers is strong, and the transaction is cold. 3) LME copper inventory decreased by 8525 tons to 197850 tons month-on-month on July 6, while copper warehouse receipt inventory in the previous period increased by 2023 tons to 38986 tons month-on-month. 4) spot East China: on July 6, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted as rising 10 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton in the same month, up 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. On the spot side, the improvement in market acceptance sentiment gives traders confidence in raising prices, and is expected to maintain a small rise today. It is estimated that the spot water is 20 yuan / ton today-40 yuan / ton. South China: on July 6, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province was quoted as a rise of 40 cents to 70 percent of the contract for that month, with the average price unchanged. Spot market: stocks in Guangdong continued to rise slightly over the weekend, but the increase was much lower than last week, coupled with a certain drop in copper prices yesterday. However, the reception mood of downstream manufacturers is general, it is reported that recently downstream manufacturers have purchased a lot of non-standard and wet copper, resulting in their low willingness to purchase PC boards. Affected by this, the holding price is weak, yesterday's mainstream transaction price is basically the same as last Friday. Overall, yesterday's trading is general, downstream procurement is not active; pay attention to the arrival of goods today, if you restart the situation of destocking, the future rising water material will still shock higher. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun Copper closed at 6140 US dollars / ton, up 2.08%. Trading volume was 16000 lots, and short positions were reduced by 4235 to 234000 lots. Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 49320 yuan / ton, up 0.57%, trading volume was 52000 lots, and short positions were reduced by 187 lots to 117000 lots. Copper prices continued to rise last night, starting from early trading. The outer disk recovered the shady line on Friday and set a new high after the Spring Festival. Shanghai copper night trading also stood firm after opening at 49300, and the rising momentum of copper prices continued. On the macro front, as investors' expectations for a strong rebound in the Chinese market rose and economic data from the United States and Europe repaired resonance month-on-month, risk assets rose sharply yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.71 percent, and copper prices were driven higher by optimism. It is expected that today Lunzhong 6150PUE 6210 US dollars / ton, inner plate 49300PUE 49800 yuan / ton.
