[overnight market] Venture capital is heating up. Metal on the outer disk is up 3.28%.

Forecast of Today's Financial and Economic data: China announces Foreign Exchange reserves in June

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: the LME0-3 structure changed from contango to back on July 3] at present, it is US $6.50 / ton; since the end of April 2019, LME0-3 Copper has maintained the contango structure for a long time, while since late May this year, the contango structure has gradually narrowed, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, supply-side disturbances intensified, while consumption still has a strong support. With the acceleration of overseas economic restart process, the prospect of copper consumption recovery is promising, and the continued decline of LME copper inventory also confirms the logic of consumption repair. "check the details."

[big explosion: non-ferrous metal A-share board rose 15 shares by the daily limit! Recently, the real estate sector of the stock market was the first to go crazy, followed by nonferrous metals, coal, iron and steel, and financial stocks went up against the wind, jointly driving China's stock market to soar and out of the unilateral rising market! Yesterday, the shanghai index closed 5.71 per cent higher at 3337.27, its highest level since early February 2018. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.09% and the gem Index rose 2.72%. The turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.42 trillion, a five-year high. More than 200 stocks in the two markets rose by the daily limit. "check the details."

[global epidemic tracking: India's new crown confirmed case rises to the third place in the world * Israel's epidemic situation is urgent] at present, the total number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 11.55 million, of which the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 2.98 million. The number of confirmed cases in India reached 687760, surpassing Russia to become the country with the third largest number of confirmed cases in the world. "check the details.

[July 6, 2020 SMM aluminum rod processing fee market] the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rod in Shandong is between 50mur300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of a large local aluminum rod manufacturer is on the low side, and other holders are relatively high in consideration of the cost. The processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rod in Henan is between 120m and 160 yuan / ton, and the price is slightly higher than last week, mainly due to the implementation of environmental protection supervision in some areas of Henan, and some producers need to stop production for two days. As a result, other manufacturers have raised their prices slightly, and the processing fees for 1A60 aluminum rods in Inner Mongolia are between-120 and-70 yuan / ton. The consumption of downstream factories is relatively general, but there are not many bright spots. "check the details.

[SMM data: inventory in Guangdong and Henan is small tired & inventory of electrolytic aluminum in East China continues to drop by 4000 tons to 715000 tons compared with last Thursday] on July 6, inventory in Guangdong and Henan areas is tired & East China continues to go to storage. SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory dropped 4000 tons to 715000 tons compared with last Thursday. "check the details.

[SMM data: July 6th SMM Seven Zinc Ingot Social inventory] according to SMM, as of Monday, the total inventory of SMM Seven zinc ingots was 217700 tons, an increase of 1100 tons over last Friday, and a decrease of 6200 tons from last Monday. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: the trend of eight consecutive increases in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to continue] according to SMM research, since May 8, the social inventory of lead ingots has begun to accumulate. As of July 3, the total inventory of lead ingots in five places has reached 33800 tons, an increase of 25800 tons over May 8. "check the details.

[MMi Iron Ore Port spot Index report (6th)] Port inventories of imported mines tracked by SMM rebounded for three consecutive weeks, and over the weekend, the Tangshan municipal government issued an "urgent notice on further tightening controls", specific to the suspension of production restrictions at steel mills, which makes the market expected to strengthen for iron ore demand in the near future.

Copper miner Trevali Mining said on Friday that a total of 82 people at the Santander lead-zinc mine in Peru had tested positive for the new crown virus and operations at the mine had been suspended. Trevali Mining announced in late June that 19 workers at the mine had tested positive for the new crown virus in routine tests, operations were suspended and 298 workers underwent further tests. In 2019, the output of zinc in Santander mine is 32100 tons, and the output of lead concentrate is 5200 tons.

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: national lithium-ion battery production dropped 1.2% from January to May last year] the Consumer goods Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the operation of the battery industry from January to May 2020. In terms of production, from January to May 2020, among the main products of the national battery manufacturing industry, the output of lithium-ion batteries was 5.51 billion, down 1.2% from the same period last year; the output of lead-acid batteries was 76.389 million KVA, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year; the output of primary batteries and primary battery packs (non-buckle type) was 14.13 billion, down 3.7% from the same period last year. "check the details.

Important news of metals and industry

[national Bureau of Statistics: national output of ten non-ferrous metals increased 4.1% in May compared with the same period last year] in May, the national output of ten non-ferrous metals increased by 4.1% over the same period last year, or 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, copper production increased by 13.3%, falling by 5.2% in the same period last year; electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 0.1%, compared with 2.4% in the same period last year; lead production increased by 17.1%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period last year; and zinc production increased by 4.5%. Drop 2.9 percentage points. "check the details.

[Japan's Mitsui Mining resumes operations at two zinc mines in Peru] Japan's Mitsui mining and smelting company (Mitsui Mining and Smelting) said on Monday that its two zinc mines in Peru resumed operations on July 2 after more than three months of closure. The company's Huanzala and Palka mines have been shut down since the local government declared a state of emergency on March 16. A spokesman for Mitsui Mining said the mine resumed operation after some economic activity resumed and was approved by the local government. "as preparations have been made for the restart since the end of June, the operating rate of these mines has returned to the level before the quarantine measures were implemented in March," it said. " He didn't give an output forecast for this year.

[Xinjiang Zijin Nonferrous 100000 tons / year Zinc smelting Project roaster ignited successfully] 11:00 on June 30th, Xinjiang Zijin Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. designed by China Enfei Engineering and Technology Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Zijin Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., 100000 tons / year zinc smelting project roaster ignition is a complete success, which marks the project officially opened the prelude to commissioning. The project started construction at the beginning of 2019, adopting the international mainstream and mature roasting-leaching-clean liquid-large plate zinc stripping production process, and selecting international advanced equipment, in which 4 sets of cathode and anode automatic driving in the electrolysis workshop are supplied by the company. it has the characteristics of automation, information, high level of intelligence, friendly environment and up to the discharge standard, reaching the advanced level of the same industry at home and abroad.

[Vedanta Zambia Copper warning: part of the Nchanga open-pit mine may collapse] Multi-miner Vedanta Resources Zambia branch (KCM) closed part of the Nchanga open-pit mine due to the risk of collapse. KCM predicted that parts of the Nchanga open-pit mine, located in the Zambian copper-cobalt belt, could collapse within the next five days as a result of some slope instability found in previous geotechnical assessments. In addition to the Nchanga open-pit mine, KCM operates Nchanga and Konkola underground mines, concentrators, a smelter, a tailings leaching plant and a refinery. It is reported that in fiscal year 2019, the Nchanga mine will produce 13000 tons of copper.

[SMM hot volume terminal demand report: you think the demand off-season has not yet arrived-July demand resilience remains] since mid-late June, the spot price of plate continues to show a volatile trend, the upward driving force is significantly weaker than the previous year, and in previous years, July-August is the traditional off-season for the manufacturing industry, thus causing market concerns about the decline in sheet demand. However, according to SMM analysis, under the support of sustained infrastructure development and further recovery in automobile and home appliance production and sales, although the growth rate of demand for sheet coil in July slowed down compared with the previous period, it remained a steady growth trend on the whole. "check the details.

[June growth rate may exceed 60%! Excavator sales are expected to exceed expectations] in May 2020, excavator sales increased by 68%, of which the domestic growth rate was 76%. Guojin Securities Machinery military Industry team predicts that according to the comprehensive judgment of upstream production scheduling and downstream demand, excavator sales growth in June and July are expected to exceed 60% year on year, continuing to exceed market expectations. It is estimated that the growth rate of excavator sales in 2020 is expected to reach about 25%, the growth rate of concrete machinery is expected to maintain 20%, and the growth rate of truck crane is expected to maintain more than 15%.

[national Bureau of Statistics: national crude steel output increased 4.2% year on year in May. Steel production increased 6.2%] in May, the national crude steel output was 92.27 million tons, an increase of 4.2% over the same period last year, with a growth rate of 5.8% over the same period last year; steel output increased by 6.2%, down 5.3%. Coke production fell 3.2 per cent, compared with an increase of 5.7 per cent in the same period last year. Ferroalloy production fell 3.5%, compared with an increase of 13.1% in the same period last year. Steel exports 4.4 million tons (customs statistics), a decrease of 1.92 million tons over the previous month; imports of 1.28 million tons, an increase of 270000 tons over the previous month. "check the details.

[China Iron and Steel Association: production and inventory of iron and steel enterprises in late June 2020] in late June 2020, iron and steel enterprises produced a total of 21.4215 million tons of crude steel, 19.1516 million tons of pig iron, 21.3362 million tons of steel and 3.3089 million tons of coke. The average daily output in this decade is 2.1421 million tons of crude steel, down 0.01% from the previous month and up 5.70% from the same period last year; pig iron is 1.9152 million tons, up 0.2% from the previous month and 8.47% from the same period last year; and steel is 2.1336 million tons, up 2.79% from the previous month and 3.95% from the same period last year. This month, key statistics show that the average daily output of crude steel in iron and steel enterprises is 2.1298 million tons, an increase of 2.74% over the previous month and 4.03% over the same period last year.

[Ningbo City: issue the notice on further maintaining and promoting the stable and healthy Development of our City's Real Estate Market] to "cool down" the current hot real estate market in Ningbo to ensure that it is needed and adhere to "housing speculation". We will promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. This paper puts forward the "Ten principles" New policies to stabilize the real estate market from the aspects of maintaining the stability of the land market, adjusting the scope of purchase restrictions, strengthening the supervision of financial policies, ensuring the demand for self-occupied housing and strengthening the management of market sales. The policy will be implemented on July 7.

[Jiaozuo Wanfang made a forecast profit of 1.3-170 million yuan in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year.] Jiaozuo Wanfang issued a semi-annual performance forecast last night saying that the company made a profit of 1.3-170 million yuan during the report period, compared with a loss of 34.3189 million yuan in the same period last year. During the reporting period, the prices of prebaked anodes, coal, alumina, electricity and other major raw materials and energy prices decreased compared with the same period last year. In addition, the company's futures hedging business income increased compared with the same period last year, and it is estimated that the impact of non-recurrent gains and losses including hedging business income on the company's current net profit is about 39.7 million yuan.

[the Congolese mining minister will meet with mining companies to discuss the suspension of the blockade] the mining minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Vikitobo Sam Sony (Willy Kitobo Samsoni), plans to meet with mining companies to reach an agreement to suspend workers from entering the new crown virus-affected areas. Last month, civil society groups called for an end to the mine blockade imposed by copper and cobalt mining companies to avoid coronavirus outbreaks. Samsoni said in a statement on Sunday that it would contact mining companies and issue orders to end the blockade, taking into account individual needs.

[Baotou Industry and Information Bureau: the prices of rare earth products rose or remained flat month-on-month in June] it is reported that in June, the prices of 33 industrial products mainly monitored by the Baotou City Industry and Information Bureau showed an upward trend. From the perspective of month-on-month comparison, the average price of 24 products increased from the previous month, accounting for 72.7% of the total number of monitored products, and the number of price-rising products increased by 6 kinds compared with May; the average price of 5 kinds of products decreased, accounting for 15.2% of the total number of monitored products; the number of products with falling prices decreased by 8 kinds compared with May; the average price of 4 kinds of products remained the same, accounting for 12.1% of the total number of monitored products, and the number of products with the same price increased by 2 kinds compared with May. Among them, in the fields related to rare earths, the prices of rare earth products are mostly rising or flat compared with the previous month.

Macro focus

[foreign Exchange Trading Center: foreign investors bought 101 billion yuan of bonds in June] on July 6, the foreign exchange trading center released data on the operation of overseas business in the interbank bond market in June, showing that by the end of June 2020, according to the statistical caliber of legal persons, 455 foreign institutional investors entered the market through the settlement agency model, with an increase of 5 in that month, while 565 foreign institutional investors entered the market through the bond pass model, and 17 new ones in that month. Cymbal

[a new batch of over trillion special debt lines has been issued] 2 learned from a number of local investors and financiers that a few days ago, the Ministry of Finance has issued a new batch of new local special debt lines to provincial financial departments. In addition, the 200 billion quota to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks has not yet been issued, and each province needs to fight for it separately with specific programs. In late May, the National people's Congress approved a new local government special debt limit of 3.75 trillion in 2020. After deducting the quota of 2.29 trillion issued in advance and the quota of 200 billion to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks, the quota issued this time is 1.26 trillion.

[China's SME Development Index rebounded in the second quarter] the China Association of small and medium-sized Enterprises released a second-quarter SME development index (SMEDI) of 85.5, up 3.5 points from the first quarter. Among them, the sub-industry index and sub-index rebounded in an all-round way. Among the small and medium-sized enterprises surveyed, the industrial enterprises had the best return to work, while the construction industry was the weakest, with a resumption rate of 93.17% and 84.44%, respectively. According to the analysis of the China Association of small and medium-sized Enterprises, with the detailed implementation of a series of state policies to reduce taxes and fees, stabilize enterprises and aid posts, and inclusive finance, the objectives and tasks of "six stability" and "six guarantees" have achieved initial results. coupled with the fact that small and medium-sized enterprises actively help themselves through transformation and upgrading, the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year.

[new round of Anglo-European future relations negotiations held in London on July 6] on the 6th local time, a new round of Anglo-European future relations negotiations will be held in London, England for the first time since March. Last week, the negotiations between the two sides ended one day earlier on July 2. EU chief negotiator Barnier issued a statement saying that there are still serious differences between the two sides after four days of discussion. It is understood that the consultations will be held alternately in Brussels and London every week until the end of August. It is hoped that intensive interviews will allow both sides to make progress.

[legal officials said Huawei would not be completely banned, but operators were encouraged to avoid using it. China responded] legal officials said that Huawei would not be completely banned, but operators were encouraged to avoid using it. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian expressed the hope that France will adopt an objective and fair attitude, respect the laws of the market and the wishes of enterprises, and independently make choices that are in line with its own interests. Take practical actions to provide an open, fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for enterprises of all countries, including Chinese enterprises.

Terminal information

[divine material: the first half of net profit is expected to increase by 503.72% over the same period last year.] Tianci issued a revised announcement of semi-annual performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit for the first half of the year will be 305 million-325 million yuan, an increase of 503.72%-543.31% over the same period last year. Previously, the net profit for the first half of the year was expected to be 195 million-254 million yuan, an increase of 285.99% over the same period last year. 401.78%. The net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies is expected to vary from 305 million yuan to 325 million yuan, an increase of 503.72% to 543.31% over the same period last year.

[Zhongding Co., Ltd.: the company has become a batch supplier of new energy hybrid assembly products for Geely Automobile GHS2.0 platform project] Anhui Zhongding Seal Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Anhui Testone Pipeline Technology Co., Ltd., recently received notice from customers. The company has become a batch supplier of new energy source hybrid assembly products of Zhejiang Geely Automobile parts Purchasing Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Geely Automobile" GHS2.0 platform project). The company has been committed to engine and battery thermal management system assembly product development and supporting, in the acquisition of Tristone Flowtech Holding SAS at the same time and the completion of the domestic project landing, Anhui Testone is to become a high-end supplier of automotive thermal management system assembly products, the thermal management system assembly products using TFH leading thermal management system assembly technology, the total project life cycle of about 1.879 billion yuan.

[10 car companies lost more than 200 billion in half a year Dongfeng plummeted 20 billion BYD led the rise] in the first half of the year, Tesla on the other side of the ocean took the lead, with its share price soaring, beating Toyota to become the world's largest car company by market capitalization and becoming a veritable "wealth-making machine." There is also no shortage of phenomenal commercial dramas among the listed car companies in Hong Kong and Hong Kong. Volkswagen invested heavily in Jianghuai Automobile, "hundreds of billions of giants" Geely Guanke Chuangbang plans to return to A-shares, "National God car" Xiali A-share farewell performance after several twists and turns, BYD semiconductor business spin-off listing speed …. Reflected in the secondary capital market, the stock market of listed car companies has ups and downs, during which there is no lack of thrilling moments. According to the statistics of 15 listed car companies in Hong Kong A and Hong Kong A, as of the close of trading on June 30, 15 car companies had a total market capitalization of 18 stocks of about 1.0971 trillion yuan. The market capitalization of 10 car companies has shrunk, with a total loss of 208.3 billion yuan.

[tungsten concentrate output reached a record high in the first quarter of the same period] according to the China Tungsten Association, in 2019, against the background of an obvious decline in the tungsten industry as a whole, medium tungsten high-tech management enterprises achieved reverse growth, with operating income of 10.1 billion yuan and current profits of 520 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 3% and 20% respectively in the past three years. From January to March 2020, cumulative tungsten concentrate production increased by 5% compared with the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period since the establishment of the company; cumulative APT production increased by 26.4% compared with the same period last year; and cumulative cemented carbide production increased by 1.93% over the same period last year. The total profit increased by 102.59% over the same period last year, reaching 25.3% of the annual budget target, exceeding the time schedule target and achieving a good start to the first quarter of production.

(us car sales generally fell by more than 20 per cent in the second quarter.) according to J.D. Power and Edmunds and other automotive research institutions, US light vehicle sales fell by between 24% and 30% in June; overall US car sales fell by about 34% in the second quarter of this year, possibly the worst quarter for automakers this year.

[LG Chemical plans to produce batteries for Tesla in South Korea] according to reports, on July 3, a person familiar with the matter said that the market demand for Intezra vehicles has expanded, increasing battery orders, and South Korea's LG Chemical Company began producing car batteries for it at its local factory in South Korea this year. "Tesla is selling very well, so Tesla is asking not only LG Chemical, but also other suppliers to increase supply," the person said. Another person familiar with the matter also said that LG Chemical is converting some of South Korea's local production capacity to Tesla batteries, and its factory in Nanjing, China, has begun producing batteries for Tesla.

Related market

[the euro has brushed a new high in nearly two weeks, and the bulls may have a bright future] the dawn of economic recovery is getting stronger as EU support policies become stronger. On July 6, the euro hit a two-week high of 1.1328 against the dollar since June 24. After the Independence Day short holiday in the United States, risk-taking sentiment rose sharply at the beginning of the week to boost risky assets. China's stock market volume closed up 5.7% to a nearly two-and-a-half-year high. In addition, the recent series of data released by the euro zone are positive, the market is optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery in the region, and EU policy support is increasing. All provide support for the euro.

[us Oil encountered a barrier of US $41, fears of a second outbreak suppressed demand recovery] when the monthly reports of the two major institutions this week revealed that the price of US crude oil futures in the European market hit the US $41 mark on July 6, despite tight supply to provide support, but the market is still worried that a surge in new crown virus cases may dampen demand. Data from several cities in the affected states show that there is no significant reduction in road traffic each week, and EIA's report this week will better understand the impact of tightening gasoline restrictions on gasoline demand in several states. This week, EIA and IEA will release monthly reports on the crude oil market. At present, the overall report is more likely to be optimistic and is expected to provide upward momentum for oil prices in the short term.

(INE crude oil closed higher, Chinese stock market soared, and production cuts also achieved results, but the spread of the epidemic in the United States is expected to accelerate again.) the price of crude oil in Shanghai rose 0.03% on July 6. The rise in Asian stock markets provided support for oil prices, especially as the Chinese stock market soared and US output fell, but investors remained concerned that a surge in new crown virus infections could dampen US oil demand. In the first four days of July alone, 15 states reported record new cases of crown pneumonia, and holiday parties are likely to lead to a further surge in infections.

Overnight shibor was 1.3460%, down 1.80bp. In seven days, shibor was at 1.7940%, down 18.60 basis points. Three-month shibor was 2.1040%, down 0.10 basis points.

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