7.6 铜晨会纪要
Macro: 1) New Crown epidemic tracking: the WHO (WHO) announced on Saturday that the number of new cases in a single day worldwide reached a record high, and WHO officials said it was uncertain when a vaccine would be available. [bearish] 2) the final values of Markit composite PMI in both the euro zone and the UK in June were higher than the initial values, but still below the 50% rise and fall line, indicating a slowdown in the decline. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate as of last Friday, the SMM copper concentrate index (weekly) was at $51.37 / ton, down 12 cents / ton from June 19. Last week, the copper concentrate market was relatively light, SMM learned that a small number of spot transactions in the 50 low, trading range has not changed significantly. However, with the gradual tension of the epidemic situation in Chile, the seller's bearish sentiment has increased, and the offer still has a downward trend in the second half of the week. 2) scrap copper prices continued the upward trend last week, some scrap copper suppliers keep gambling psychology, cover goods and hesitate to sell, wait for copper prices to fall over the weekend, start shipping to avoid risk, high copper prices as a whole is still good for scrap copper merchants to ship. As a result of the rise in copper prices, the price difference between fine copper rods has increased by more than 2000 yuan, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods has returned to the peak season level, there is a lot of competition among manufacturers, the price of scrap copper rods has risen relatively slowly, and the price of scrap copper rods in most areas has been deducted by about 1000 yuan on the disk, which is open again with the price of refined copper rods. 3) imported copper last week (June 29-July 3) the trading range of Yangshan copper premium warehouse receipt was US $110 per ton, while the bill of lading was US $78 per ton. Last week, the import window was still closed, with a loss of around 200 yuan per ton. The activity of foreign trade copper market is limited by market demand, the transaction performance is light, and the quotation shows a downward trend. In the case of the gradual recovery of overseas copper demand, LME inventories continued to decline, contango structure narrowed to $2 / tonne from about $10 / tonne at the beginning of the week, and the proportion of warehouse receipts written off remained high. 4) LME copper inventory decreased by 4325 tons to 206375 tons month-on-month on July 3, while copper stocks in the previous period increased by 14347 tons to 114318 tons month-on-month. 5) spot East China: on July 3, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract quoted flat water ~ litre water 30 yuan / ton. On the spot side, the market inquiry atmosphere warmed up after the market fell, and traders' confidence in raising prices improved, and it is expected that the rising water level will be maintained today. It is estimated that the spot water is 10 yuan / ton today-30 yuan / ton. South China: on July 3, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province rose by 40 per cent to the current month's contract, with an average price increase of 15 per cent. Spot market: although inventories continue to increase, the growth rate has decreased, and the market expects that this round of concentrated delivery is coming to an end, coupled with a decline in copper prices and an increase in downstream purchasing willingness than before. In addition, the narrowing of the base margin has also stimulated some trade receipts. As a result, we expect to restart the destocking trend, which is expected to rise this week. Copper price and forecast: last Friday night, Lun copper closed at 6015 US dollars / ton, down 1.29%. The trading volume was 12000 lots, and the short position increased by 892 to 298000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2007 contract closed at 48850 yuan / ton, down 0.59%, and the trading volume was 57000 lots. Long positions were reduced by 1987 to 120000 lots. There was a correction in copper prices on Friday. Lun Copper recovered its gains in the previous two days and broke the 5-day moving average, while Shanghai Copper closed down more than 400 yuan, mainly due to a large technical setback in the previous period, as well as a more obvious increase in domestic inventories on Friday. On the macro front, the manufacturing PMI index of China and the United States continued to improve in June compared with the previous month, and the added value of non-farm payrolls in the United States reached an all-time high in June, strengthening the expectation of sustained economic improvement; the central bank cut re-lending and rediscount interest rates since July 1, allowing local debt to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks, monetary policy sent a signal to amplify credit, and the favorable tone on copper prices remained unchanged. From a fundamental point of view, the increase in domestic inventory this week is mainly due to the influx of imported copper, although the actual consumption has entered the off-season, but the domestic production of electrolytic copper is restricted by raw materials, and the epidemic situation in South America continues to ferment, Codelco announced that the pandemic led to the suspension of the Teniente expansion project, the upstream supply port risk still exists, and there is also support for copper prices. It is estimated that today Lun copper 6000 won 6060 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 48800 won 49,100 yuan / ton.
