[SMM Metal Breakfast] mixed ups and downs of non-ferrous metals * CSPT determines the TC/RC floor price of copper concentrate * Copper rod processing fees have dropped significantly.

Forecast of Today's Financial data: euro area releases monthly Retail sales rate in May

[overnight quotation] the metal on the outer disk rose and fell each other, the high callback of Lun copper rose 0.71%.

Today's focus

[blockbuster: CSPT group meeting to determine the third quarter copper concentrate TC/RC floor price] according to SMM, the CSPT group held the latest third quarter Floor price meeting online this morning and finalized the third quarter TC/RC floor price of 53 US dollars / ton and 5.3 cents / lb, and the SMM June copper concentrate index was 51.71 US dollars / ton. Due to the great uncertainty of epidemic factors in the second quarter, the quarterly meeting of the group did not determine the floor price, while the floor price determined in the third quarter was much lower than that of $67 / ton in the first quarter, which objectively reflected the tightening trend of imported copper concentrate supply. at the same time, the raw material supply situation in the second half of the year is still very grim. "check the details.

[Chile's Codelco announced a pandemic led to the suspension of the El Teniente copper expansion project] Chile's national copper company Codelco said on Saturday that it would temporarily suspend the upgrading of its El Teniente mine, declaring that the move was necessary to deal with the rapidly spreading coronavirus pandemic. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said in a statement that the measure would reduce the total number of employees in Teniente-related businesses to 4500, and that the mine would continue to use the previously announced 14-day shift system to protect workers.

[SMM analysis: affected by many adverse news, copper rod processing fees have dropped significantly all over the country this week] affected by many adverse news, copper rod processing fees have dropped significantly all over the country last week. According to our SMM research, last Friday (July 3) East China 8mm power industry rod processing fee was 600mur730 yuan / ton, the average price was 95 yuan / ton lower than last Friday; Guangdong 8mm power industry rod processing fee was 560mur680 yuan / ton, the average price was 80 yuan / ton lower than last Friday; North China 8mm power industry rod processing fee was 550 Mutual 600 yuan / ton, the average price was 50 yuan / ton lower than last Friday; The processing fee for poles used by the 8mm electric power industry in Southwest China is 730mur800 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35 yuan / ton lower than that of last Friday. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: comprehensive PMI48.3 of China's aluminum processing industry declined for three consecutive months in June] according to SMM survey and statistics, the composite PMI of China's aluminum processing industry in June was 48.3, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, 5.4 percent from the same period last year, and recorded a decline for three consecutive months up to June. According to the overall situation of the survey, it is expected that the comprehensive PMI of the aluminum processing industry will still be below 50 in July.

[SMM Weekly Survey: aluminum downstream processing traditional off-season in July has begun to decline] Last week, the start of aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises showed a certain decline, with the exception of profile enterprises, other processing enterprises all showed a certain decline, among which the start-up of primary aluminum processing section, primary alloy and aluminum cable declined significantly. Specifically, end-car consumption has entered the traditional off-season, resulting in poor performance of primary alloys, recycled alloys and automobile plates, while aluminum cables are highly dependent on national grid bidding, so check the details under its new demand in the future.

[SMM Analysis: analysis of the impact of changes in Import waste Aluminum Policy on Aluminum Industry chain] in July, following the addition of waste aluminum scrap to the list of solid wastes that can be used as raw materials in 2019, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said on June 30 this year that solid waste import would be completely banned next year and applications would no longer be accepted, reiterating the ban on solid waste import next year. At the same time, the standard of "recycled cast aluminum alloy raw materials" drafted by the recycled Metals Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association is also scheduled to be implemented on July 1 this year. So how much impact does it have on the aluminum industry chain? "check the details.

[SMM analysis: Guangdong zinc spot water weakness will continue to be depressed in the short term.] Last week, Guangdong zinc market quotation focused on 2060 / ton for Shanghai zinc 2008 contract, and the Guangdong market discount of 90 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai stock market increased by 10 yuan compared with last Wednesday. This week, the spot price of Guangdong is further narrower than that of the 2008 contract. With the resumption of production after the maintenance of some smelters and driven by the demand of smelters, the arrival volume of Guangdong market continues to increase, and the supply of negotiable goods in the market is relatively abundant. "check the details.

[SMM data: recycled lead impacts primary lead market social inventory of lead ingots increases continuously] it is understood that during the Dragon Boat Festival, some lead battery manufacturers have a holiday of 1 Mel for 3 days, while smelters produce more normally. At the same time, lead prices rise all the way after the festival, and downstream replenishment is limited. At the same time, the profits of recycled lead are gradually repaired, and the discount of recycled lead is rapidly expanded. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: supply increases, demand weakens, aluminum bar processing fees fall under pressure] the arrival of aluminum bars in major consumer places has increased, and inventory has rebounded. On Thursday, the national inventory of aluminum bars increased by 6900 tons to 73200 tons compared with last Wednesday. Inventory in Wuxi, Changzhou, Huzhou and Nanchang all increased to varying degrees, only inventory in Foshan continued to decline. During the week, the processing fees of aluminum bars also declined to varying degrees. On Friday, the quotation of aluminum bars in Foshan fell to 330mur430 yuan / ton, Wuxi aluminum bars fell to 300mur400 yuan / ton, and Nanchang processing fees fell to 200ly300 yuan / ton. The processing fee in Gongyi / Linyi area is 300mur400 yuan / ton, and the processing fee in Baotou area is down to 100 yuan / ton. "check the details.

[SMM survey: lead battery weekly start-up slightly increased but limited after the holiday] according to SMM research, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in the five provinces of SMM last week (June 29-July 3) was 63.69%, up 0.27% from last Friday. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: metal silicon exports hit a nearly eight-year low in May] Customs data show that metal silicon exports in May 2020 were 31000 tons, down 36.2% from the previous month and 53.6% from the same period last year. It became the lowest monthly export volume since February 2012 (29000 tons of exports). In February, when the domestic epidemic was at its worst, many foreign buyers prepared goods in a panic, and then production was reduced or stopped due to the epidemic, and the time for inventory digestion was prolonged. Compared with the slow recovery of China's overseas consumption, especially in May, many overseas downstream were in a state of shutdown, and construction did not increase gradually until June, and procurement gradually resumed after inventory digestion. "check the details."

[SMM analysis: Guangdong zinc ingot arrival volume improved in June or continued to increase] in June, Guangdong market arrival volume rebounded at a low level, in line with our previous expectations. In late June, the smelters overhauled in Guangxi and Yunnan resumed production one after another, and production resumed in June after the completion of the technical transformation of Jinding zinc industry. on the whole, the output of the smelters mainly sent to the Guangdong market showed a state of restorative growth. During the month, the price gap between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed to about 80 yuan. The willingness of smelters to send to Guangdong has improved. Individual smelters are actively cashing out goods. "check the details.

[SMM data: July 3 SMM Free Trade Zone Zinc Ingot inventory] according to SMM, as of Friday (July 3), the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 45000 tons, an increase of 1500 tons over last week. "check the details.

[SMM data: July 3 SMM Seven Zinc Ingot Social inventory] according to SMM, as of Friday (July 3), SMM Seven Zinc Ingot inventory totaled 216600 tons, down 1800 tons from last Wednesday and 7300 tons from Monday. "check the details.

[SMM research: waste battery high price holding license recycled lead weekly operating rate 53.4%] according to the Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) survey, last week (June 27-July 3) SMM recycled lead smelting enterprises in the four provinces had a weekly operating rate of 53.4%, up 3.0% from last week. "check the details.

Important news of metals and industry

SMM data: the inflection point of copper inventory in the mainstream consumer areas across the country this week has reached an inflection point on the month-on-month increase in copper inventory. According to the latest SMM research, as of Friday, SMM's national mainstream copper market inventory increased by 37300 tons month-on-month to 199300 tons. Among them, the copper inventory in Shanghai increased by 25000 tons to 152000 tons; the copper inventory in Jiangsu increased by 4000 tons to 28000 tons; and the copper inventory in Guangdong increased by 8300 tons to 19300 tons.

[SMM analysis: supply increment & consumption month-on-month weakening zinc ingot social inventory inflection point may come] SMM believes that some smelters overhauled earlier in July resume production, and the supply side is expected to increase in month-on-month ratio, while zinc downstream consumption is in a process of month-on-month weakening. Zinc ingot social inventory is expected to show a trend of accumulation in July. "check the details."

[copper inventory in Shanghai bonded warehouse decreased by 1000 tons last week] according to SMM research, copper inventory in Shanghai bonded area decreased by 1000 tons to 208500 tons on Friday compared with last Wednesday. Inventory decreased in the second week, but the decline slowed significantly. Copper futures soaring to curb domestic consumption, refined waste price spread continues to expand to further squeeze refined copper demand, superimposed this week the influx of imported copper into the country, the inventory growth in the three places is obvious. This week, the import window continues to close and the spot price of domestic trade slips down, and the import demand is light, so the decline rate of bonded warehouse inventory has weakened, and the inventory inflection point is coming. "check the details.

[new progress in India's import copper and aluminum monitoring system has yet to be approved by the General Administration of Foreign Trade] New progress has been made in the introduction of copper and aluminum import monitoring system by India's mining sector, which needs to be approved by India's General Administration of Foreign Trade (DGFT). India will monitor 43 imported aluminium products and 47 imported copper products, according to the Chapter 76 HS code of Indian trade law, and the mining minister has consulted with a number of stakeholders on the matter. It is reported that these 43 imported aluminum products account for 99.08% of the total value of India's imported aluminum products, and it is not clear whether waste aluminum will be included in the monitoring system. The 47 copper products involved account for 98.79% of the total value of India's imported copper products.

[auto stocks are up all the time. China Automotive Co., Ltd. expects auto sales to grow in June compared with the previous month.] Automobile stocks showed a strong trend on Friday, with BIADILA rising to a five-year high, with a total market capitalization of nearly 220 billion. FAW Jiefang, Lifan, Changan Automobile and Jinbei Motor rose by more than 9%, Jin Hongshun by 6.53%, and Kema B, Quanfeng Motor and Jiangling Motor by more than 5%. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, car sales have rebounded since March, with production and sales reaching 2.187 million and 2.194 million respectively in May, up 4.0 per cent and 5.9 per cent month-on-month, and 18.2 per cent and 14.5 per cent year-on-year. The double growth of automobile production and sales also means that the situation of the automobile industry continues to improve.

[SMM analysis: Shanghai and tin have slowly risen all the way to the high point at the beginning of the year. Tin prices are still supported.] from a fundamental point of view, on June 27th, the Central Committee for the Prevention and Control of the New Crown virus in Myanmar announced that the control of the epidemic in Myanmar had been extended to July 15. The tension in the domestic tin mine is expected to continue, and the import of tin ore will remain at about 60% of the normal level in the short term. The tightening of production caused by the tight supply of mines is expected to still have some support for tin prices. "check the details.

[steel supply but supply tightening later demand rebound steel prices or strengthen again] rebar may strengthen slightly next week. Although inventory began to accumulate, SMM still believes that this week's data show that the electric furnace operating rate has fallen by 4.24%, and the later operating rate will continue to fall, with the blast furnace operating rate of 90.16%, down 0.13% from last week. The overall production of building materials is likely to decline in July, and some steel mills have started the operation of turning hot metal to hot coil as a result. At the same time, production restrictions in Tangshan are also stimulating the strength of the market, waiting for the gradual return of demand, building materials are still strong operation. "check the details."

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: operation of the iron and steel industry from January to May 2020] from January to May, the iron and steel industry gradually got rid of the impact of the epidemic, production and sales basically returned to normal, and the overall operation remained stable. Due to the double squeeze of falling steel prices and rising imported iron ore prices, there has been a big decline in the economic benefits of the whole industry. "check the details.

[announcement of Hebei Provincial Department of Natural Resources on "Qianan Lianwang Economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Nanshan Iron Mine Geological Environment Protection and Land Reclamation Plan" and other two schemes passed the examination] according to the "regulations on Land Reclamation", "Mine Geological Environment Protection provisions" and other relevant provisions, The two schemes of "Qianan Lianwang Economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Nanshan Iron Mine Geological Environment Protection and Land Reclamation Plan" and "Zunhua Jiangcheng Mining Co., Ltd. Mine Geological Environment Protection and Land Reclamation Plan" have passed the examination and are hereby announced.

SMM brief Review: Shanghai Nickel consumption rose more than 2% during the off-season, it is difficult for nickel prices to break through resistance! Recently, there has been a sharp increase in ADP employment in the United States, and EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected that week, while last night's US non-farm data once again boosted the mood of the nickel market, and nickel prices in Shanghai and London rose sharply at the beginning of the day. However, the weak fundamentals of the nickel market have not been improved at present. With the arrival of the off-season downstream of stainless steel from July to August, domestic demand is weak and lack of obvious benefits, and the industry is generally pessimistic about the late market. Stainless steel profits are poor and the late supply of nickel pig iron in Indonesia continues to increase, under the influence of this recent nickel pig iron market shows a slight weakening trend.

[SMM Analysis: orders in India delay Lithium Cobalt oxide demand gradually shifting to China] from 2016 to 2019, smartphone shipments in the Indian market grew steadily compared with the same period last year, and their share in the global market continued to increase. India surpassed the United States to become the world's second largest smartphone market, but affected by the epidemic in 2020, it may decline by 16.7 percent compared with the same period last year. Before the outbreak, a foreign media predicted that smartphone sales in India would grow by nearly 10% this year, and now it has been adjusted to-16.7% compared with the same period last year.

[Galaxy Resources shipped 41800 tons of lithium concentrate in the second quarter] Galaxy Resources released its second quarter activity report. According to the report, a total of 41755 metric tons (wet) of lithium concentrate were shipped in the quarter, including 15758 metric tons (wet) of lithium concentrate sold in 2019. Among them, the quarterly output of the Mt Cattlin mine is 31000 metric tons (dry), which is also in line with the annual guidance. Galaxy is advancing the development of the Sal de Vida lithium brine project in Argentina, which is located in the Lithium Triangle (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia).

[electrolytic Manganese Weekly Review (6.29mur7.3): weak demand at home and abroad has accelerated the performance of downside manganese factory shutdowns] the spot ex-factory price including tax in the mainstream area of the manganese triangle has been as low as 10,000 yuan / ton around 9900 Mill / ton, down 150 yuan / ton from the average price last Friday; the spot factory price in Guangxi, including tax, is around 10000mur10100 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than the average spot price last Friday. "check the details.

[Indonesian Ministry of Industry: looking for the best way to use nickel slag in industrial materials] recently, the Indonesian Ministry of Industry, through its R & D department, is looking for the best solution to deal with nickel slag so that it can be used as industrial raw material. This work is in line with good environmental management policies or circular economy plans. "in the context of dealing with nickel slag, our center already has sufficient technology, equipment and human resources for testing, research, standard-setting and consulting activities," DoddyRahadi, head of the (BPPI) of the Ministry of Industrial Research and Development, said in a statement. Four R & D departments of the Ministry of Industry play a direct role in the treatment of nickel slag, namely, (BBLM), Bandung Ceramic Center (BBK), Bandung Materials and Technology Center (B4T) and Industrial pollution Prevention Technology (BBTPPI).

[St. George Mining: Alexander Hill Nickel Sulfide Project enters the next phase of development and drilling] recently, St. George Mining (St George Mining) 's Alexander Hill Nickel Sulfide (Mt Alexander nickel sulphide project) project in Western Australia has entered the next phase of development and drilling. This week's deep diamond drilling program kicked off in the prospects of investigators, drilling a large 800-meter deep hole aimed at the depth of the ore system. The company has so far completed 4600m of shallow drilling at the Stricklands (Stricklands) deposit and is expected to obtain its first resource within weeks.

[Altura Mining sales and shipments of lithium concentrate reached a record 60950 metric tons in the second quarter], Altura Mining recently released its second quarterly report. Lithium concentrate sales and shipments were both 60950 tons (wet) in the second quarter, a record for the company, according to the report. The company recently loaded 16000 wet tons on board the Seastar Endurance and has now left Port Hedland for China. This is the company's fourth shipment in the second quarter, bringing the total number of products sold and shipped to 60950 wmt.

Macro focus

[central bank: promoting the opening up of the bond market to further improve the convenience for international investors to enter the market] the people's Bank of China, together with relevant departments, will continue to strengthen the basic institutional construction of the financial market and continue to enhance the depth and breadth of the bond market. We will improve the risk hedging mechanism, rating, taxation and other supporting institutional arrangements, further improve the convenience for international investors to enter the market, and better meet their needs for the allocation of RMB assets. High quality deepens the opening up and development of the market.

[the number of new crown cases on Independence Day in the United States hit a record high] the 4th is Independence Day in the United States. According to the data released on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on the same day, there were 57718 new crown confirmed cases in the United States in the past 24 hours, the highest number of new cases in a single day since the outbreak. On the same day, Florida had more than 11000 new cases in a single day, and Texas had more than 8700 new cases in a single day, all of which set a new record. Over the past few days, the CDC has reported more than 50,000 new cases in a single day.

[U.S. non-farm payrolls rose 4.8 million in June, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday.] it hit an all-time high and is expected to increase by 3.058 million, compared with a previous increase of 2.509 million. The unemployment rate was 11.1% in June, the second month in a row and is expected to be 12.5%, compared with a previous value of 13.3%. However, some analysts said that the June non-farm report in the United States could not fully reflect the full picture of the job market, and the non-farm survey was conducted in mid-June, failing to take into account the suspension of restart brought about by the new crown pneumonia epidemic sweeping the United States again. With signs of a new round of shutdowns emerging, the market fears that the actual unemployment situation could be even worse.

Terminal information

[Daimler officially invests in Funeng Technology] following Volkswagen's stake in Guoxuan Hi-Tech, another top global auto company-Daimler (Daimler) strategically invests in Funeng Technology and participates in its Kechuang board IPO. Chinese battery manufacturers are increasingly becoming popular among global front-line car companies, demonstrating the rising strength of China's new energy vehicle industry chain. Daimler Greater China Investment Co., Ltd. (Daimler Greater China) appeared on the list of strategic investors on the evening of July 2, when Funeng Technology announced its initial public offering and listing on the Kovac board. Its contribution is 904.5 million yuan, and it will hold about 3% of Funeng Technology in the future. Daimler Greater China is a wholly owned subsidiary of Mercedes-Benz. Daimler Greater China is actually controlled by (DaimlerAG) of Daimler AG.

[new car sales in Germany fell 40 per cent in June this year or the lowest since 1989] Germany, Europe's largest car market, sold 220000 new cars in June, down 40 per cent from June 2019 to its lowest level in 30 years. The German auto industry has been hit hard by the abandonment of the electrification of internal combustion engines and the emissions scandal, which has been exacerbated by the outbreak of the new crown virus and the economic blow caused by the blockade for months. Reinhard Zirpel, head of the International Association of Automobile Manufacturers (International Carmakers' Association), predicts that the number of new car registrations for the whole of 2020 will fall 20 per cent from last year to 2.8 million.

[Tesla German factory or does not produce battery new test runway] Tesla submitted the latest environmental approval application to the German local government for the Berlin super factory project, which includes several major changes to the project. It was reported earlier this week that Tesla wanted to press ahead with the construction of the Berlin superfactory, although it had not yet received final approval. Now the company has submitted new environmental protection application documents to the local area.

[CPIA Annual report: import and Export of China's Photovoltaic products in 2019] in 2019, the total export volume of China's photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, battery wafers and modules) was about 20.78 billion US dollars, an increase of 29 percent over the same period last year, breaking through 20 billion US dollars for the first time since the "double reverse", reaching the second highest in history. Among them, the export volume of silicon wafer, battery wafer and module was 2 billion US dollars, 1.47 billion US dollars and 17.31 billion US dollars respectively. Except for the decline in silicon wafer exports, the export volume of battery wafers and modules increased significantly compared with the same period last year; the export volume was 5.18 billion wafers (about 27.3GW), 10.4GW and 66.6GW respectively, all exceeding the annual export volume of 2018.

[Prysmann and Ankite have won 2 billion euro cable orders in Germany] German power grid companies Tent (TenneT Holding BV) and TransnetBW GmbH have awarded underground cable supply contracts for Germany's SuedLink wind power project, with a total value of 2 billion euros ($2.26 billion). (TSO), two transmission system operators, said they had decided to use plastic insulated underground DC cables with a voltage of 525 kV in the project. Ankat Cable and Prysman subsidiaries, Europe's leading cable manufacturers, have received the above cable orders. Under the contract, NKT GmbH&Co KG, owned by the Ankat Group, will deliver and install the XLPE high voltage DC (HVDC) onshore cable system at a total contract price of more than 1 billion euros and a line length of about 750km. Production is expected to begin in early 2022 at its plants in Cologne, Germany, and Karlskrona, Sweden.

Related market

[the epidemic has repeatedly raised concerns that oil prices are falling on the daily line but still rising on the weekly line.] boosted by strong US jobs data in June and a decline in US crude oil inventories, both US oil and cloth oil rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday. Cloth oil recorded a weekly increase of 5%. Signs of economic recovery and a decline in supply after record production cuts in OPEC+, made up of (OPEC) and its allies, have helped cloth oil more than double from a 21-year low of less than $16 hit in April.

[Ministry of Finance: 30% reduction on shale gas resource tax from April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2021] from April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2021, the shale gas resource tax will be reduced by 30%. The specific operation shall be carried out in accordance with the Circular of the State Administration of Taxation of the Ministry of Finance on reducing Resource tax on Shale Gas (Finance and Taxation (2018) No. 26).

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