SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: inside and outside aluminum rose for two days in a row, Lun aluminum closed yesterday at 1618 US dollars / ton, up 0.31%, up 5 US dollars / ton, Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract rose 100 yuan / ton to close at 13900 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.72%. The dollar index fell 0.09 per cent to 97.377.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the epidemic statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 14:30 on June 30, Beijing time, there were a total of 10.3029 million confirmed cases and 505518 global deaths. Of these, 2.5906 million were confirmed in the United States, 1.3682 million in Brazil, 640200 in Russia and 566800 in India. S & P: confirmed China's long-term credit rating of A +, with a stable outlook. S & P said that compared with other middle-income countries, China is expected to maintain above-average economic growth in the next few years, and its real GDP per capita is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 per cent in 2021-2023. (bullish) 3) the central bank: it has decided to lower the re-lending and rediscount interest rates from July 1. Among them, the interest rates of re-loans for supporting agriculture and supporting small enterprises were reduced by 0.25 percentage point. after the adjustment, the interest rates of re-loans for supporting agriculture and supporting small children for three months, six months and one year were 1.95%, 2.15% and 2.25%, respectively. The rediscount rate was cut by 0.25 percentage point to 2%. Central Bank: the Ministry of Finance has decided to renew the issue of special treasury bonds for the fight against epidemic in 2020 (the third issue) with a total face value of 70 billion yuan. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) spokesman for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment: in the first five months of this year, the import of solid waste was 3.226 million tons, a decrease of 45.3% compared with the same period last year; starting from 2021, the import of solid waste will be completely banned, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will no longer accept and approve applications related to the import of solid waste. (negative) 2) SMM statistics of the downstream aluminum processing industry PMI index in June released: in addition to the aluminum foil industry PMI index rose month-on-month and higher than the rise and fall line, the other downstream aluminum processing industry PMI index declined month-on-month, and are all below the rise and fall line. (positive) 3) Guangyuan Zhongfu has an annual output of 250000 tons of green aluminum in the first phase of the project; Gongyi Xinge 200000 tons of recycled aluminum and 100000 tons of aluminum processing recycling project construction; 4) China Automobile Association: in June 2020, the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers was 56.8%, up 2.6% from the previous month, 6.4% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory early warning index was above the rise and fall line. (bad luck)
Spot side: yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 14140 and 14160 yuan / ton, and the spot transaction price in Wuxi was between 14160 and 14180 yuan / ton, which was 70 yuan / ton higher than the previous day's price. the spot price of aluminum in Wuxi is relatively tight relative to Shanghai. A large family received nearly 20,000 tons of goods in East and South China yesterday, the activity of transactions among traders was relatively average, the shippers were relatively active, and the transactions between buyers and sellers were flat. Yesterday, the downstream mainly received goods on demand, due to the sharp rise in prices, the willingness to buy goods is not high. The overall transaction in East China is OK. Aluminum shock uplink in the afternoon, the price of the holder is around 14190 yuan / ton, and the price of the opposite plate is about 180 yuan / ton. there are only a small number of transactions between traders, and there are few downstream. This morning, spot transactions focused on rising water around 170 yuan / ton in the same month.
Conclusion: from a macro point of view, the epidemic situation abroad is still grim, and domestic monetary and fiscal policies continue to boost the social economy. Fundamentals, SMM June downstream aluminum processing industry PMI data released, in addition to aluminum foil industry PMI index is still above the rise and fall line, the rest of the downstream aluminum processing industry PMI index fell below the rise and fall line, in line with the previous expectations of weaker demand in the downstream aluminum processing industry.
