IAI: 's global primary aluminum production rose to 5.448 million tons in May

The MJP aluminium premium has surged to $245–260 per tonne for Q2 2025, far exceeding Japan’s domestic spot price and raising concerns about its role as Asia’s benchmark. Despite this, buyers continue accepting higher premiums to secure stable supply, as producers prioritize shipments to higher-paying markets like the U.S. and Europe. With Japan’s aluminium imports declining, its influence in price negotiations has weakened, shifting power to global suppliers. While MJP is still widely used, its relevance is being questioned as Southeast Asia’s aluminium market grows, potentially paving the way for a more regionally representative pricing model.

Global prices for nickel, copper, and aluminum have been wildly swinging the past two years. With application in renewable energy infrastructure via EVs and a vehicle for sustainability goals, the metals are now pivotal commodities of the game of energy transition. Yet, the double pressure of new energy demands and green regulation is still the prime driver of their volatile prices.

Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

According to General Administration of Customs China imported 8.73 million mt of bauxite in December, up 13.32% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year.

The President of Indonesia reiterated his plan to halt the exports of all commodity raw materials today, which will suspend the exports of bauxite in 2022, copper in 2023, and tin in 2024.

As of this Friday, the SMM weighted average alumina price index stood at 3884 yuan/mt, an increase of 64 yuan/mt from before the holiday; Shanxi reported 3850-3950 yuan/mt, an increase of 100 yuan/mt from pre-holiday; Shandong reported 3850-3900 yuan/mt, an increase of 75 yuan/mt compared to before the holiday; Henan reported 3850-3950 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt compared with pre-holiday; Guangxi reported 3700-3700 yuan/mt, Guizhou reported 3800-3900 yuan/mt, both flat from before the holiday; Bayuquan reported 3900-4050 yuan/mt, an increase of 75 yuan/mt from before the holiday.

China imported 6.1 million mt of bauxite in February, up 43.7% year on year, latest customs data showed

China’s bauxite imports in February grew 43.7% year on year to stand at 6.1 million mt, according to Chinese customs.