[SMM Analysis] Aluminum prices continue to rise and processing fees are under pressure. Aluminum bar prices fell across the board in May.

SMM5 March 31:

In May, spot aluminum prices continued to rise in April, with a cumulative increase of more than 500 yuan, basically wiping out all the declines in March. In the context of strong aluminum prices, aluminum bar prices in all regions fell across the board.

The price of aluminum bars in Guangdong has dropped from 650 million yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 650 yuan per ton, with φ 178 and other big bars falling below 400 yuan per ton. The processing fee of nearly half of the big bars is mainly caused by the selling of the consignors, and there is a mismatch between supply and demand in a short period of time. Although Guangdong aluminum bar inventory continues to decline, but a large number of out-of-warehouse sources make the market abundant supply. In the second half of May, processing fees in Guangdong were significantly higher than those in neighboring provinces, resulting in a great increase in the number of goods transferred across regions, and processing fees in the Jiangxi market also rebounded.

The processing fee in Wuxi area has dropped from 600 won 700 yuan / ton to 450 won 550 yuan / ton. Recently, the automobile delivery price has fallen below 600 yuan / ton, and the downstream wait and see more and less replenishment. While the aluminum bar long order price advantage is no longer, the new long single month processing fee will be reduced.

The processing fee in Baotou area fell from 450mur550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 200mur300 yuan / ton. The purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches of North China began to weaken gradually at the beginning of the month. Recently, the quotations of some automobile aluminum bars from Inner Mongolia to Hebei have also been sharply reduced by more than 100 yuan. When the market weakens, some aluminum bar manufacturers begin to increase their shipments to the south.

The processing fee in Gongyi area has dropped from 500mur550 yuan / ton to 450mur500 yuan / ton, which is a small drop. The output and consumption of aluminum bars in the province are not large, and most of them are just needed for long orders, and the price for long units is around 400 yuan / ton.

The processing fee in Linyi District has dropped from 750mur850 yuan / ton to 450mur550 yuan / ton, the self-price of the factory / warehouse has been greatly reduced, and some of the low prices of more than 400 yuan / ton are still not smooth. The inflow of some aluminum bars from Qinghai and Gansu has increased the supply of the region, and there is still room for further reduction.

At the beginning of this month, processing fees in the north first weakened, and then fell from north to south, but at present, the center of gravity of processing fees in various regions is still in a relatively high position, and the exuberant demand for aluminum bars, which has lasted for nearly two months, is also nearing the end, and there is still room for downward adjustment of processing fees in June.

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