[SMM Analysis] the outflow of aluminum ingots dropped sharply & the import of aluminum ingots in Guangdong continued to decline sharply in May.

SMM5 March 31:

In May, Guangdong aluminum ingots out of storage (185900 tons) fell 34.24% month-on-month, but still increased by 10.79% compared with the same period last year, while storage volume rebounded (116400 tons), up 17.10% from the same period last year. On April 29th, Guangdong aluminum ingot inventory was 173900 tons, down 69500 tons from April 30 (243400 tons), and the inventory fell by 28.55%.

Although Guangdong's output fell by nearly 100, 000 tonnes in May from a month earlier, it was still higher than last year's monthly average of 153600 tonnes after a record release in April, with a relatively good performance on the demand side. Downstream overall consumption has not significantly weakened, just need to replenish the bottom, but the continuous rebound in aluminum prices makes the lower reaches afraid of high and reduce procurement, more to digest the previous low price hoarding, in addition, the increase in the supply of scrap aluminum and aluminum bars also slightly reduced the demand for aluminum ingots.

The supply of aluminum ingots in Guangdong increased fairly in May, with inventory volume increasing by 27.49% compared with April. The proportion of molten aluminum in the upstream is relatively high, and the amount of ingots has not increased significantly. Some aluminum ingots in North China and Northwest China are supplied southward, and the supply in the southwest is also slightly increased, including some imported aluminum ingots.

Most of the aluminum ingots imported by Guangdong in May are directly connected downstream, and there is not much circulation in the spot market of aluminum ingots, including India's Vedanta Resources, Australia's Rio Tinto, Malaysia's Qili and other aluminum ingot brands. In the context of the continued opening of the import window, there is still a lot of expected pressure on imports in June, and terminal consumption is also likely to weaken. The current inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong is less than 60, 000 tons from its lowest level of 120000 tons in recent four years. If supply and demand rise and fall, the inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong will probably bottom out in June.

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