[SMM analysis] overseas alloy market demand has not yet recovered the price of electrolytic cobalt or will continue to decline.

Published: May 31, 2020 12:24

Save

SMM, May 31:

At present, the price of electrolytic cobalt in the overseas market is 14.75 U.S. dollars / lb, which is basically stable compared with the previous week, but there is still no transaction in the spot market. Due to the lack of full resumption of work in the overseas downstream superalloy industry and the weak market demand for electrolytic cobalt, it is expected that overseas cobalt prices will still have downward space in the later stage.

Europe and the United States are the main consumer markets for electrolytic cobalt. The annual consumption of cobalt in China is less than 10, 000 tons, while that in overseas markets is about 15000 tons. Affected by the new crown epidemic, overseas aerospace and other places that need to use a large number of alloy products have hardly been consumed in recent months, and the market demand for electrolytic cobalt has been greatly reduced. Although the European government has made great efforts to promote the resumption of factories, according to feedback from SMM customers, the operating rate of factories in Europe is still on the low side.

Although recently, the price of electrolytic cobalt in China has continued to rise to 25-260000 yuan / ton (about 14.1 murals US $14.7 / lb) and gradually stabilized, but in fact there are few purchases in the spot market. The rebound in domestic prices is mainly due to the inflow of some funds into the market, while the major large consumers have enough raw materials in the metal cobalt price of 22-230000 yuan / ton (about 12.4 Mel 13.0 U.S. dollars / lb), and the existing inventory can still support the use of about 2 Mel for 3 months.

At present, the price gap of electrolytic cobalt at home and abroad has narrowed, the import and export window has not been opened, and the downstream demand of both markets is weak, and prices are lack of support. The downstream construction of metal cobalt in overseas market is slow, but the upstream supply has been restored one after another. Some suppliers revealed that there are almost no downstream enquiries in the spot market, and there are no orders for spot quotations to only about $14.2 / lb, and overseas electrolytic cobalt prices are expected to fall by about $0.50 / lb in the short term.

Price Forecast Electrolytic Cobalt overseas Market

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

[SMM Analysis] Quantity, Price, Source, Port of Destination: Analysis of Indonesian Sulfur and Sulphuric Acid Imports and Exports in H1 2026

H1 2026 sulfur imports fell by 771,000 mt YoY, a decline of nearly 30%. Combined imports from the four Middle Eastern countries (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) dropped by 1.52 million mt, a decrease of 62%. Canada emerged as a new major source, with imports rising from 172,000 mt to 328,000 mt (+90%), making it the second-largest origin. The average price in June surged to $885/mt, forming a pattern of “volume decline and price increase”.

1 hour ago

12 hours ago

Zimbabwe's Palm River Ferrochrome Complex Nears Full Operational Status Ahead of Planned Third-Furnace Commissioning

[SMM Express] Construction of the coking, power and ferrochrome plants at the Xintai-developed Palm River Energy and Metallurgical Industrial Park in Beitbridge is now complete, according to a ZANU-PF government progress update. The milestone follows the complex's first furnace commissioning in March 2025 and comes as the project's power infrastructure — currently a 100 MW coal-fired plant, en route to a targeted 1,200 MW, with surplus electricity destined for the national grid — continues to expand toward full design capacity. A Xintai official told commodity data provider OPIS in May that the complex's third furnace was targeted for commissioning in August 2026 — this month. We look forward. Palm River forms part of a broader Special Economic Zone spanning 5,163 hectares and is being developed in phases, with Mines Minister Dr Polite Kambamura citing the project in April as central to Zimbabwe's push for a share of the US$15.8 billion global ferrochrome market. With Zimbabwe's total ferrochrome exports reaching 433,293 tonnes across the whole sector in 2025, Palm River's ramp-up, and confirmation of the third furnace's commissioning, will be a key indicator of how much additional volume the country's beneficiation drive can add to that base over the coming year.

12 hours ago

How Kazakhstan and Albania Are Reshaping Global Ferrochrome Supply as South Africa's Output Struggles

[SMM Express] South Africa's ferrochrome exports fell 44.57% year-on-year as of June 2026, driven largely by extended smelter suspensions at Wonderkop and Boshoek. Against that backdrop, two developments elsewhere in the global ferrochrome market this year point to a supply base actively reconfiguring around Kazakhstan and Europe. In January 2026, Albania's ALBCHROME began a capacity expansion and modernization of its ferrochrome smelting facilities, aimed specifically at capturing rising demand from European stainless steel manufacturers. The timing aligns with the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, in effect since January 2026, which favours suppliers with shorter transport distances and lower embedded carbon footprints — criteria that structurally favour a European supplier like Albania over South Africa. Separately, in March 2026, Glencore proposed backing Kazakh businessman Shakhmurat Mutalip's $1.4 billion bid for a 40% stake in Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), one of the world's largest ferrochrome producers via its Kazchrome subsidiary, offering an $800 million upfront pre-payment in exchange for future ferrochrome shipments. Glencore's move is notable given the company's own deep stake in South African ferrochrome through the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture, pointing to diversification of its ferrochrome supply exposure beyond South Africa. With Kazakhstan's Bolashak mine continuing to ramp toward 7.5 million tonnes/year of chrome ore capacity and Albania positioning to serve Europe directly, South African producers face a more competitive global landscape by the time domestic smelting capacity is fully restored, rather than an unchanged market to return to.

12 hours ago