Home / Metal News / Cobalt & Lithium / [SMM analysis] Cobalt raw material shortage superimposed ternary no sign of warming up. The average price of cobalt sulfate in SMM rose by about 3% in May.
[SMM analysis] Cobalt raw material shortage superimposed ternary no sign of warming up. The average price of cobalt sulfate in SMM rose by about 3% in May.
May 31,2020 11:39CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM5 March 31: since South Africa closed the port at the end of March to unseal in early May, the spot supply of cobalt raw materials in the domestic market is tight, and cobalt raw material stocks are mostly concentrated in the hands of large smelters or large downstream demand merchants. As a result, domestic smelters have raised their quotations for cobalt sulfate. at the end of May, the average price of SMM cobalt sulfate increased by about 3% compared with that at the beginning of May, and the average price rose from 45500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 47000 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

According to SMM, at present, the resumption of work by car companies in Europe and the United States is slow, their parts factories are still gradually recovering, and the inventory of dealers is relatively high. coupled with the fact that battery factories also have some inventory, it will still take two months for new orders to be transmitted to domestic material factories. At present, domestic export orders for ternary materials have been cancelled and delayed, and export orders for ternary precursors have not been resumed, and have been reduced by 20% and 30% since April. In addition, most of the downstream digital products of ternary materials are also exported to India, Europe, the United States, and other seriously affected areas. at present, overseas markets have not yet recovered, and it is expected to wait until July before they can pick up.

At present, the overseas power market is still uncertain, there is still a recurrence of the epidemic in some areas, or there will be procurement demand in July. The consumer market will have to wait for India to lift the ban on May 31, and if customs can be opened on time, it will also have to wait for January-February to start the procurement of raw materials. Judging from the recent procurement plan at the end of the month, except for the stable supply of Tesla industry chain, other battery factories are willing to reduce their purchases, and orders for ternary materials continued to decline in June compared with May.

At the beginning of the month, the price of cobalt sulfate was flat, and in the first week of this month, the transaction price of cobalt sulfate was basically 4.4-45000 yuan / ton. some large cobalt tetroxide factories purchased because of new orders, because the inventory in the cobalt chloride market was less, and the price was higher than that of cobalt sulfate. the trading volume of cobalt sulfate is more than that of cobalt chloride. Cobalt salt factories are more willing to raise prices, and some manufacturers have raised their quotations, and the lower reaches have also begun to worry about price increases, but downstream orders are limited and prices are still deadlocked.

The price of cobalt sulfate rose slightly in the second week. Upstream cobalt raw material cost support and early June may be facing a shortage of raw materials, cobalt salt plant still raised its offer this week. Downstream inquiry increased, the acceptance of price increase than last week, but downstream demand did not improve much, procurement is still cautious, the market cobalt sulfate 45000 yuan / ton turnover.

The price of cobalt sulfate rose in the third week. The short-term shortage of cobalt raw materials has led to a rise in cobalt salt quotation, cobalt salt manufacturers have few shipments recently, and there are few cobalt salts in circulation in the market. Downstream inquiries are increasing one after another, and cobalt salt factories are more willing to increase prices. This week, cobalt sulfate manufacturers quoted 47-50, 000 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction price of 45-46000 yuan / ton, the current market almost no such transaction price cobalt sulfate products. Downstream part of the ternary precursor manufacturers, cobalt tetroxide manufacturers feedback there is still a small part of cobalt salt procurement demand.

The price of cobalt sulfate was flat in the last week. By the end of the month, purchase orders increased, but downstream believed that the price increase space was limited, only a few purchases. Cobalt sulfate transaction price this week is mainly 4.6-47000 yuan / ton, cobalt raw material tension has been basically consumed by the market, cobalt sulfate price stalemate.

SMM believes that the ternary demand of the main downstream power shows no sign of picking up in June, or continues to decline month-on-month. This month, most of the cobalt sulfate shipments went to cobalt tetroxide manufacturers, but cobalt tetroxide demand for cobalt sulfate was limited. After the cobalt raw materials arrived at the plant at the end of June, the price of cobalt sulfate may show a slight correction.

SMM Cobalt Lithium New Energy Research team

Lin Fangwen 021Mui 51666878

Qin Jingjing 021 Murray 51666828

Mei Wang Qin 021 Mui 51666759

Huo Yuan 021 Murray 51666898

Wu Yang 021 51666818

Price forecast
import and export

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news