[SMM analysis] the export volume of aluminum plate and strip decreased by 12.3% in April compared with the previous month, and the export volume is expected to continue to decline in May.

According to customs data, the export volume of China's aluminum plate and strip in April 2020 was 224400 tons, down 12.35% from the previous month and a small increase of 0.34% over the same period last year. The cumulative export volume of China's aluminum strip from January to April 2020 was 809200 tons, down 8.81 per cent from the same period last year.

Source: general Administration of Customs, SMM

Judging from the specific export country data of aluminum plate and strip in April, Mexico, South Korea and Canada remained firmly in the top three, and the volume of exports to the United States jumped from the sixth place last month to the fourth place this month. The volume of aluminum plate and strip exported to the United States increased by about 860 tons compared with the previous month, and compared with March, the volume of aluminum plate and strip exported to Nigeria decreased significantly. From the 11 tariff numbers related to aluminum strip, the category with the largest export volume is still 76061220, that is, aluminum alloy rectangular plate, sheet, 0.2mm < thickness < 0.28mm, the monthly export volume of this category is 68000 tons, which is 7.23% lower than that in March.

Source: general Administration of Customs, SMM

Last month, the author predicted that the export volume of plate and strip would decline this month. According to the survey in the lower reaches of this month, it is expected that the export volume may continue to decline in May, or even it will be difficult to improve in June. With the epidemic raging abroad, the number of confirmed cases continues to rise, the global economic development has been hit hard, and the export volume of aluminum plate and strip in China will continue to be restrained under the background of foreign factories shutting down or reducing production. According to a survey conducted by SMM and downstream aluminum strip factories, because the export cycle of plate and strip is about two weeks to a month, the export volume in May partially feedback the export orders in April (while the export orders dropped significantly in April), and in the month of May, large aluminum strip factories in Shandong and Henan even said that their export orders dropped by 40% compared with normal conditions. On the whole, the export of aluminum strip in May is hardly optimistic, and it can even be said that the overall export volume in the second quarter may be lower than that in the same period last year. (Xu Man 021 muri 51595898)