SMM5 March 27: in intraday trading, both offshore and onshore RMB weakened, with offshore RMB falling below 7.17 to 7.1762 and onshore RMB breaking through 7.16 to 7.163, with fluctuations of more than 250bp, the lowest since September last year. The industry believes that the current decline in the RMB does not necessarily mean that the currency has entered the depreciation range, as the undetermined macro targets and Sino-US relations are still treated cautiously by the market, risk aversion is still the main pressure on exchange rate depreciation.
Sun Binbin team of Tianfeng Securities said that the central bank's "retention" is still the embodiment of the multi-objective dynamic balance of the central bank, and the focus and direction of monetary policy will not change. Although the central bank cherishes the normal monetary operation space, it maintains the overall stability of the domestic financial market and gives priority to internal and external balance, which determines that the central bank can only "maintain its strength" in stages.
Cinda Securities believes that whether the central bank will be loose or not in the future requires daily tracking and continuous interpretation. If the reverse repurchase continues in the next few days, it shows that the central bank intends to restart the operation; but if it is only a one-off, it is unwilling to cut interest rates in the short term.
Wang Quanyue, an investment consultant at Jianyin, said that the setback in foreign trade after the outbreak was the direct cause of this round of RMB exchange rate fluctuations. In the short term, China still has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and there is sufficient policy space to maintain the short-term basic stability of the exchange rate under the action of counter-cyclical adjustment factors. In the long run, exchange rate changes still mainly reflect a country's fundamentals. At present, the fundamentals of the long-term improvement of China's economy have not changed, and the increase in the degree of exchange rate fluctuation is only the normal response of the market under the background of the gradual formation of the exchange rate marketization mechanism.
Citic Securities believes that from the perspective of RMB exchange rate depreciation pressure, the risk aversion sentiment in the current market is still an important source of RMB exchange rate depreciation pressure. Judging from the relationship between the Shanghai Composite Index and RMB exchange rate, the stock market tends to perform poorly when the RMB exchange rate is devalued, so from the perspective of the stock market, the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate level is of great significance.
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