Minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting on May 27th
Market: overnight Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract opened at 12835 yuan / ton, closed at 12940 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.78%, trading volume increased to 88000 lots, position increased to 161000 lots, daily line recorded Sanlianyang. Overnight Lun aluminum opened at 1507.0 US dollars / ton, first suppressed and then rose in Asian trading, and strong volatility in European trading. It closed at 1521.5 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.2%. Trading volume decreased to 10000 lots and its position was 856000 lots. The dollar index fell below 99 yesterday, falling as low as 98.891, down 0.79 per cent.
Macro level: 1) according to the real-time global epidemic data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 08:32 on the 27th, the global cumulative confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia reached 5588299, including more than 350000 deaths and reached 350423. More than 10,000 people have been diagnosed in the United States and Brazil in a single day. (bearish) 2) in its financial stability report, the ECB said that the severe recession had brought new risks to the financial system and acknowledged that ultra-low interest rates were likely to last longer. 3) at present, the market is concerned about the latest progress in the research and development of coronal vaccine, as well as the economic recovery after the restart in Europe and the United States. Optimism continues to rise, while the risk aversion of the US dollar has declined. (Lido sales) 4) the total number of new home sales in the United States in April was annualized (10,000 units), with a previous value of 62.7, forecast of 49, and announcement of 62.3. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) under the background of rising aluminum base prices for several days, the holder took the initiative to reduce the processing fees for aluminum bars and rods, and the consumption of aluminum rods is OK. In the case of low processing fees, there are still signs of hoarding in profile factories, aluminum rods are relatively flat, and cable enterprises have fewer new orders. Raw material procurement is more cautious. (Lido) 2) according to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in April 2020 were 7343.28 tons, a sharp increase of 352.79 percent over the same period last year and 35.75 percent higher than the previous year. From January to April 2020, China imported 20560 tons of primary aluminum, a decrease of 22.22% over the same period last year. Exports are expected to increase in May from the previous month. (bullish) 3) in April, the export volume of China's aluminum plate and strip was 224400 tons, down 12.35% from the previous month, a small increase of 0.34% over the same period last year. In April, the export volume of aluminum profiles and bars in China was 69900 tons, down 19.88% from the same period last year and 5.47% from the previous month. Exports totaled 256600 tons from January to April, down 23.15% from the same period last year. (bullish) 4) in April 2020, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was 63900 tons, an increase of 606.1% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 23.2% from the previous month. From January to April, imports totaled 266000 tons, an increase of 742.6 percent over the same period last year. The consumption of aluminum alloy has a certain substitution effect on the original aluminum, and the import volume has greatly increased and put pressure on the domestic aluminum price to a certain extent. (bad luck)
Spot end: yesterday, the spot transaction price in Wuxi area of Shanghai was between 13320m and 13340 yuan / ton, the price was 70 yuan / ton higher than the previous day, and the rising water was between 80m / ton and 100 yuan / ton. The holder of goods in Hangzhou area was relatively high and quoted at 13360m / t. 13380 yuan / ton. Yesterday, a large family carried out a normal procurement plan, but the purchase price did not fully reach the market price, the shipments of the holders were more active, some middlemen expected the subsequent rising water to narrow, the receiving of goods was relatively active, and the trading between the two sides was active, but there was a slight stalemate on the transaction price. Downstream goods are mainly shipped on demand.
Summary: from a macro point of view, economic activities in some overseas areas have been restarted one after another, the domestic macro atmosphere has also continued to warm up, and the global trading atmosphere has eased somewhat; at home, the fundamentals continue to go to the warehouse to form a strong support for Shanghai aluminum. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term, and the price difference will remain strong the next month. In addition, the inventory of warehouse receipts in the previous period has continued to decrease in recent weeks, with less than 120000 tons as of yesterday, which has a large gap with the delivery volume required for the current month, and pays attention to the changes in price spreads and multi-short positions in the near and far months.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)