5.27 minutes of the Copper Morning meeting
Macro: 1) US President Trump says the United States is ready to make a strong response to the Hong Kong version of the national security law, US President Donald Trump said that the United States is preparing a strong response to China's Hong Kong version of national security legislation, which will be announced before the weekend. China's National people's Congress is expected to approve the proposal for a Hong Kong version of the national security law on Thursday. 2) with regard to the new crown detection technology and the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the market is optimistic about the research and development of this vaccine. And various regions have also lifted or are ready to lift the blockade measures. In order to support the recovery of the tourism industry, many European countries have announced the lifting of travel restrictions. 3) the central bank: it will increase financing support in the bond market and guide the net financing of corporate credit bonds to increase by 1 trillion yuan over the previous year; support financial institutions to issue 300 billion yuan of small and micro special financial bonds in 2020, specially used for the issuance of loans for small and micro enterprises; We will vigorously develop supply chain finance and promote 800 billion yuan of accounts receivable financing for small and medium-sized enterprises in 2020. [lidocaine] fundamentals: 1) copper concentrate
Sierra Metals said it was continuing to wait for the Peruvian government to agree to restart the Yauricocha mine and that the company was preparing to resume mining activities on June 1. Large open-pit mines and some underground mines in Peru have been granted permission to restart operations in the first phase. The second phase will see the resumption of mining activities by the second batch of mining companies. 2) the price of scrap copper in Guangdong is 40400 yuan / ton ~ 40700 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan higher than that of the previous trading day, and the price difference of fine waste copper is 938 yuan / ton, which is 28 yuan higher than that of the previous trading day. Recently, imports of scrap copper have arrived one after another, further alleviating the problem of raw materials for waste enterprises, but it has little impact on scrap copper traders, because the supply is still in a state of shortage, market quotations are strong, traders lack profit spreads, and the scrap copper trading industry is in a relatively awkward situation for the time being. 3) the warehouse receipt for imported copper on May 26 is quoted at US $105 per ton, and the bill of lading is quoted at US $83 per ton. The LME0-3 discount is US $28.70 / ton. The import loss is around 120 yuan / ton. There was a slight improvement in the price comparison on the 26th, and the activity of the foreign trade market was higher than that of the day before yesterday, but the transaction performance was light. At present, the market is not enthusiastic about the supply of goods in late June. Recently, at the end of May and early June, the supply of incoming bills of lading has gradually flowed out, and the holders have taken the initiative to lower their quotations in order to get rid of them, which is not much different from the unit price raised in the distant month. The buyer's inquiry volume is limited, as the expected premium is likely to fall further, showing a cautious wait-and-see. Warehouse receipts have not been heard of and offers are rare. 4) LME copper inventory decreased by 850t to 270925 t on May 26th compared with the previous period, and copper warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1546 t to 58408 t in the previous period. 5) spot East China: on May 26, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted as rising 180 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton in the same month, up 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Inventory continues to decline, and it is not enough for the holders to lift the water, but with the market rising and rising at the same time, the acceptance of traders still needs to undergo repeated sawing tests between delivery and investment, and it is expected that the rising water will continue to pull saws. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 180 won 210 yuan per ton today. South China: on May 26, the spot electrolytic copper of Guangdong Province rose 200,210 yuan / ton to the contract for the same month, down 5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, inventory continues to decline slightly, and the holder has a strong desire for goods, but the downstream receiving is not active, and the holder can only lower the rising water for shipment. In addition, more wet-process copper has entered the market today, which is another key factor in suppressing the rising water of copper in flat water. It is also understood that the supply of goods stored in the south is tight recently, and even there is a situation that it is difficult to obtain goods, and the transaction price of goods stored in the south is generally high. Overall, the market preferred low-price wet copper yesterday, while high-priced flat copper and good copper traded in general. Copper prices and forecasts: last night, copper prices as a whole showed a rise and fall, with Lun copper in the outer plate once breaking through the $5400 / ton position, while Shanghai copper night trading also opened at 43860 yuan / ton, mainly due to signs of economic restart in various countries, such as deregulation measures in Spain and Germany, and a pick-up in macro sentiment. Yesterday, US stock SP500 broke through the 3000-point mark for the first time since February, and crude oil closed up nearly 2 per cent. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino-US relations, it is difficult for the market to be unilaterally optimistic, and there was a correction in US stocks, oil prices, copper prices and so on in late trading. On the whole, the current macro has improved, and copper prices are expected to move higher today than yesterday. It is estimated that today Lun Copper 5340 will cost US $5400 per ton, while Shanghai Copper will cost 43600 won per ton.
