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[SMM Express] Impulse and accumulation in the middle of the year are less than expected, but lead prices are not sustainable.
May 25,2020 11:32CST
translation
Source:SMM
SMM believes that the current stock of lead ingots is less than expected, and the trend of lead prices is expected to be strong in the short term, but with the expansion of the internal and external ratio, the reduction of import losses, and the opening of the import window and the expectation that imported lead will enter the domestic market this week, the rise in lead prices is not expected to be sustainable.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM news: Shanghai lead rose non-ferrous today, the main 2007 contract once rose to 14395 yuan / ton, as of today, the day closed at 14335 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.59%.

Fundamentally, at present, the production of primary lead is relatively stable. As for recycled lead, due to the release of the newly expanded capacity, the supply of waste batteries is becoming increasingly tight with the increase in demand, and it is still difficult to purchase low-cost waste batteries, squeezing the production profits of enterprises, but it is understood that at present, the raw material inventory of recycled lead enterprises can remain normal and is not expected to affect production.

On the consumer side, at present, the consumption of lead-acid battery market has not changed much for the time being, but some enterprises or mid-year impulse, coupled with the easing of the overseas epidemic situation, automobile battery export orders have slightly improved, and consumption is expected to stabilize. In terms of inventory, according to SMM research, the total inventory of lead ingots in the five places reached 9500 tons in the week up to May 22, an increase of more than 100 tons compared with the previous week on May 15. The inventory of lead ingots increased only slightly, and the accumulation of lead ingots fell short of expectations, which is conducive to supporting lead prices.

SMM believes that the current stock of lead ingots is not as expected, and the trend of lead prices is expected to be strong in the short term, but with the expansion of the internal and external ratio, the reduction of import losses, the opening of the import window and the expectation that imported lead will enter the domestic market this week, the rise in lead prices is not expected to be sustainable.

Focus on the development prospect and price trend of lead and zinc industry

In 2019, global trade disputes escalated, the global economy was under pressure, and central banks began a wave of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that at present and for some time to come, the basic trend of China's economic stability and long-term improvement will remain unchanged, and 2020 will also be the year when China will build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the 13th five-year Plan ends. In this context, the new crown virus is rampant all over the world, and it is worth looking forward to how to achieve steady economic growth.

In terms of the lead market, the newly expanded production capacity of overseas mines has been released one after another from 2019 to 2020, but the overseas epidemic has spread and some overseas mines have been put into production and mines under construction. Where will the lead concentrate go in 2020? At the same time, new expansion projects in China's recycled lead market are springing up everywhere. What is the actual output release in 2020? Whether the cost support is effective or not, the supply of waste batteries has become the focus of the future market; and under the influence of a number of policies (such as the new national standard for electric bicycles, motorcycle purchase tax exemption, etc.), whether the subsequent lead consumption matches, and what is the trend of lead prices in 2020? < / p >

In response to the above topics, SMM will invite industry celebrities, industry professionals, enterprises from the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain to hold the "2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit" in Changsha to jointly discuss the current situation and problems of the industry, as well as the future development prospects, and analyze the fundamentals and the future trend of zinc prices.

Click to sign up for SMM 2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit

Scan the QR code in the picture to sign up for the lead-zinc summit and fill in the personal information on the last page. The meeting staff will contact you later!

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For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

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