[SMM Analysis] short-term supply and demand Analysis of Cobalt Raw Materials in Chinese Market

SMM, May 22:

自3月底南非封港起，4月非洲钴原料出口量大减。5月南非港口解禁后，各冶炼厂家因原料紧张纷纷提高报价，市场价格也持续回升。
因运输距离较远，非洲发出的原料一般需要一个月或一个月以上才可到达中国冶炼厂手中。4月份非洲原料主要从坦桑尼亚等地的小港口发出，预计5月至6月中上旬国内原料进口量将大幅下滑。SMM认为，短期内原料市场供应相对偏紧，钴价在6月中旬前价格将处于高位。
 
数据来源：中国海关，SMM。注：原料进口及冶炼消耗均包含金属钴

As can be seen from the above picture, the domestic import of cobalt raw materials is still high in April 2020. According to SMM research, the high import volume of cobalt raw materials in April is mainly due to the detention of orders from February to March by some enterprises, and some enterprises are worried about early delivery of raw materials for export in May. Considering the transportation cycle, raw material imports will fall sharply in May. SMM customers revealed that as of mid-May, South African port order has not yet been fully restored, finding and arranging ships is still difficult, and domestic smelters are expected to receive cobalt raw materials from South Africa one after another after mid-June.

近两年，新能源汽车市场逐步发展，随着产品性能的提高，对原料三元材料的需求也从5系转向8系，钴的需求逐步降低。三元材料及前驱体厂家因担心下游对产品型号要求的变更，对钴原料的采购也越来越谨慎。2020年1-2月份，受新冠疫情影响，国内钴冶炼厂开工率较低，但是海外需求稳定，因此冶炼厂家的产品库存大幅减少。3-4月海外疫情影响传导至国内，钴冶炼厂产品库存逐步增长。
 
SMM认为，目前国内钴原料供应短期紧缺情况将持续到6月上旬。不过，新能源市场需求未有大幅增长，终端消费疲软情况下，下游对钴产品的采购积极性不高。钴冶炼厂家因短期原料紧张钴价得以回升，若6月后三元材料市场仍未恢复，原料供应则慢慢恢复，钴市场价格可能再度回落。