Nickel price judgment: the direct reason is to boost speculative sentiment due to the decline in crude oil inventories, and bulls increase their positions on a large scale. In terms of fundamentals, the consumption of pure nickel is weaker than that of nickel pig iron in the early stage. With the resumption of production in Europe and the United States, the downstream recovery of nickel other than stainless steel, there is a lot of room for marginal improvement. In the longer term, the expected recovery of overseas downstream terminal consumption has not yet entered an obvious implementation stage, and the domestic downstream recovery has not peaked for a long time. It is a major theme that the global economy is gradually coming out of the impact of the epidemic in the future. However, it will take a long time to fully recover to the pre-epidemic level, and nickel prices are expected to continue a strong shock pattern in the second half of the year. However, the upper space will not be very high without the powerful stimulus of other fundamentals.
On May 20th, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel is quoted at 102600 RMB103500 per ton. Shanghai nickel continued to rise, rising 103000 yuan / ton in the morning market and falling below 102500 yuan / ton after the second trading session, and nickel prices came out of the trend of rising and falling again in the afternoon. In the spot market, the price of rising and sticking water is basically stable compared with yesterday, the downstream demand is poor so that the transaction is light, the circulation between traders is also inactive, and the bidder is obviously more than the consignee. Today, Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract quoted 100 yuan / ton to Pingshui. Some traders believe that Shanghai Nickel is continuously strong, and even if the price is lowered, it will not be able to promote the transaction; the trading volume of a small number of holders who adjust the price of Russo Nickel to 100 yuan / ton is still limited; in the afternoon, the quotation for 100 yuan / ton of Russo Nickel in the market began to increase, but the downstream is still afraid of high delivery caution. In terms of Jinchuan Nickel, traders reported an increase of about 1100 yuan / ton for Shanghai Nickel 2007 contract, with a light turnover in the morning. However, manufacturers shipped Jinchuan No.1 Nickel today, and the ex-factory price in Gansu area was 102450 yuan / ton. Long Association traders enthusiastically picked up the goods in Jinchang one after another. Today, Jinchuan nickel holders who receive goods from manufacturers mostly choose to transport them back to Shanghai, so this part of the supply has not had an impact on the Jinchuan nickel spot market. The price quoted in Shanghai is still above 1000 yuan / ton, but the transaction is extremely light.
2. On May 20, the price of high-nickel pig iron is 970mur990 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax), which is the same as that of the previous trading day. With the correction of nickel prices, the mentality of iron mills is stronger, and the shortage of nickel mines has been substantially alleviated for the time being. after the lifting of the ban in the Philippines, most of the negotiable goods in the market are purchased by large factories, and it is more difficult for small iron mills to purchase raw materials. Worries about production by merchants have increased, and the mentality of being reluctant to sell is still strong. It is expected that the market price will remain around 1000 yuan / nickel point (including factory tax) in the short term.
3, May 20, Wuxi stainless steel 304cold rolling quotation is generally stable, 304amp 2B rough edge coiling price range of 13600M13800 yuan / ton; 304 hot rolling slightly increased 50 yuan / ton, 304amp 2B factory coiling price quoted 13900Mel 14100 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 100 yuan / ton. Today, the price of 304 private cold rolling is stable, but traders reflect that the transaction atmosphere is light and there are fewer inquiry orders; the situation of hot rolling is slightly better than that of cold rolling, and some traders report a slight increase of 50 yuan per ton due to the increase in nickel price, but the overall transaction is general. Some operators believe that if the downstream demand can not continue to follow up, the price of stainless steel may fall. At noon, Qingshan Steel Plant announced the price of the July order, and the hot and cold rolling price was the same as the last offer. Cold rolled four feet at 13400 yuan / ton, five feet at 13600 yuan / ton, and hot rolled board at 13100 yuan / ton.
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