Minutes of 5.21 Bronze Morning meeting
Macro: 1) the Fed said in the minutes of its April meeting that the new crown epidemic has exposed the economy to "extraordinary" uncertainty in the medium term, posing a serious threat to the economy, and that the Fed is also worried about the risks to financial stability. Banks may come under more pressure. Brazil has reported a record number of new confirmed cases, making it the region with the fastest growing epidemic in the world. [bearish] fundamentals: 1) the price difference of scrap copper was 943 yuan / ton yesterday. Copper prices fell into a stagnant rise yesterday, scrap copper merchants maintained a high profit delivery, supply improved significantly compared with last week, but the overall tight supply situation has not changed, it depends on the subsequent arrival of imported scrap copper. 2) the import loss of imported copper was around 150 yuan / ton yesterday. Yesterday, the overall turnover in the market was light, and the activity of both buyers and sellers was low. The price comparison has not yet been opened, and most traders still choose to wait and see and do not quote the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong in mid-late June. There are a small number of holders who have lowered their quotations slightly. However, the buyer is expected to have room for price reduction, the price of the buying and selling order is difficult to match, and the transaction performance is deadlocked. There is basically no offer for warehouse receipts, and there are a small number of high-priced transactions. In addition, according to SMM research, copper imports are concentrated in Hong Kong in the next two weeks, which is expected to put some pressure on the domestic trade market. 3) inventory May 21 LME copper inventory reduced 1050 tons to 273175 tons; last period copper warehouse receipt inventory decreased 1857 tons to 66732 tons 4) spot China: although copper prices rose yesterday, but 06, 07 contract price difference structure narrowed, it is expected that the rising water will continue to be strong today. It is expected that the spot water will rise to 180 won 210 yuan per ton. South China: yesterday, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong Province was quoted as 250,0260 yuan / ton for that month's contract. In the spot market, inventories continue to decline, stimulating shippers to sell goods at a higher price, because shippers are limited and consignees are forced to accept high water supply, but users only maintain on-demand purchases and are unwilling to receive more goods. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the outflow of warehouse receipts, if a large number of warehouse receipts outflow is not conducive to rising water. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun Copper closed at US $5445.5 / ton, an increase of 1.73%. The trading volume was 14000 lots, and its position decreased by 1751 to 272000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2007 contract closed at 44330 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.37%, with a turnover of 51000 lots, with a position increase of 3058 lots to 112000 lots. After entering the US market last night, copper prices rose sharply, mainly due to an unexpected drop of 4.982 million barrels in EIA crude oil inventories, the removal of the oil market to confirm the recent improvement in supply and demand, while changing the market's judgment on the process of overseas economic restart, risk sentiment was boosted and copper prices rose accordingly. In addition, the minutes of the Fed's April meeting yesterday showed that it will continue to adhere to zero interest rates to support the economy; the two domestic conferences are just around the corner, the market expects economic stimulus and new infrastructure, and copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. Spot, although copper prices rose yesterday, but 06, 07 contract spread structure narrowed, Shengshui is expected to remain strong today. It is expected that Lun Copper will be US $5430 per ton today, while Shanghai Copper will be worth 44300 yuan per ton.
