[SMM analysis] the new crown vaccine has made phased progress. Can the copper market be supported and strengthened again?

Published: May 20, 2020 13:13 (GMT+8)

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Looking back on the copper market last week, both inside and outside the market showed a phased pullback, with Lun copper down 1.8% a week, and the rebound momentum was suspended. In this round of rebound market shows fatigue, the new crown vaccine development made early stage progress and once again boosted market sentiment. After the news, risky assets rose generally, with the Dow Jones index up more than 900 points, US oil rose more than 10% in a day, and Lun Copper recorded a solid positive pillar. Superimposed European countries plan to launch further economic policies, the two domestic conferences are just around the corner, and the global macro environment continues to be loose, so can copper prices complete the momentum conversion and pull up again driven by macro benefits?

SMM 5月20日讯：
回顾上周铜市，内外盘均出现阶段性回调，伦铜周内录得4条阴线，跌幅1.8%，反弹势头暂缓。从本轮铜价反弹动力看，供给端紧张逻辑对铜价支撑明显减弱。随着疫情封锁政策放宽，原料端秘鲁铜矿供应恢复,马来西亚废铜拆解企业也逐渐复工，两国境内物流同样自5月中旬起改善。预计废铜最早6月份将逐渐到货，铜精矿供应也会在7月改善。需求侧来看，上海及广东地区出库量开始下降，进入5月后企业新订单走弱，前期依靠积压订单带动的铜消费可持续性引发担忧，市场情绪自然地由乐观转为审慎。

在此轮反弹行情显露疲态时，周一晚间公告的一则消息再度提振了市场风险情绪：美国生物技术企业莫德纳公司18日宣布,在美国开展临床试验的第一款新冠疫苗mRNA-1273临床试验早期数据显示积极效果。消息公布后风险资产普涨，道琼斯指数收涨逾900点，美油日内涨幅突破10%，伦铜录得实体大阳柱。叠加欧洲各国计划推出进一步经济政策，国内两会召开在即，全球宏观环境持续宽松，那么铜价能否完成动能转换，在宏观利好推动下再度拉涨？

SMM认为，目前宏观利好对铜价提振作用偏向短线，仅凭此难以持续推动铜价上涨，原因如下：1.根据莫德纳公司披露信息，疫苗最快将在7月开始最终阶段临床实验，并在年末投入使用。而本次临床实验为早期阶段，应用前景尚存较大不确定性，且所需周期较长，难以消除市场对疫情第二波爆发的忧虑。 2.在供给逻辑弱化后，关注点集中在需求侧国内消费可持续性以及海外经济重启进程。在未得到明显信号前，市场对铜价走向存在分歧，短期盘整态势较难改变。 3.在疫情冲击各国经济后，货币政策及财政政策刺激为市场所预期，边际效应较弱。另一方面，持续宽松的宏观政策可能引发经济后遗症，以及各国手中的可用政策工具减少，同样令市场存在担忧。

综上，SMM认为，铜基本面利好逐渐弱化，此轮国内去库拐点将在5月底到来，进口窗口转为关闭，铜价持续上行动力趋弱，铜价或将进入盘整阶段。在全球经济重启之际，宏观整体仍偏乐观，利好消息的出现仍有望带动铜价短线上行。预计未来5月伦铜运行于5250-5460美元/吨，沪铜运行于43000-44500元/吨。

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