SMM5: at present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 4.98 million, and the number of new crown virus infections in the United States has exceeded 1.57 million. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has become the third largest number of confirmed cases in the world, second only to the United States and Russia. While the impact of the new crown virus will have a long-term impact on the labour market, the US economy is expected to grow faster than previously forecast in 2021, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The latest economic forecast from the non-partisan group shows that GDP will grow 4.2 per cent in 2021 on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter and is expected to decline 5.6 per cent this year. By contrast, its preliminary forecast on April 24th showed that the economy would grow by 2.8% next year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to average 11.5 per cent this year and improve only slightly to 9.3 per cent in 2021, slightly below the peak reached during the 2007-2009 recession.

Today's focus

[latest developments in the global epidemic: global cumulative confirmed cases exceeded 4.98 million new crown virus infections in the United States exceeded 1.57 million] Worldometers world real-time statistics show that as of 07:23 on May 20, Beijing time, the cumulative confirmed cases of global new crown pneumonia exceeded 4.98 million, reaching 4982057, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 324000, reaching 324489. The cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States is the largest in the world, with more than 1.57 million cases, reaching 1570063 cases, and cumulative deaths exceeding 93000 cases, reaching 93500 cases.

U.S. vice President Pence: the economies of 50 states in the United States have partially restarted; despite the increase in new crown virus testing in the United States, the number of cases of new crown pneumonia is still decreasing.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said that although the impact of the new crown virus will have a long-term impact on the labor market, the US economy is expected to grow at a higher rate than previously forecast in 2021, although the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is still pessimistic about the job market outlook for the coming year. The latest economic forecast from the non-partisan group shows that GDP will grow 4.2 per cent in 2021 on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter and is expected to decline 5.6 per cent this year. By contrast, its preliminary forecast on April 24th showed that the economy would grow by 2.8% next year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to average 11.5 per cent this year and improve only slightly to 9.3 per cent in 2021, slightly below the peak reached during the 2007-2009 recession.

Trump said the United States is in the lead in the new crown pneumonia epidemic and vaccination programs. Trump said he would sign an executive order for deregulation today.

[Egyptian government issued a policy of compulsory wearing of masks] on the 19th, the Egyptian government issued a decree stipulating that from May 30, people must wear masks in public places. Egyptian Prime Minister Madbuli announced this policy at a press conference on the same day. According to the policy, from May 30, all people entering public places, including markets, shops, public or private institutions, banks, as well as all people taking any means of public transport, must wear masks, and violators will be fined up to 4000 pounds (1800 yuan).

Brazilian finance minister: Brazil's GDP will fall by nearly 5% in 2020, and the decline is likely to be even greater.

The latest situation of the global epidemic:

(source: Sina)

China

National Health Commission: from 0 to 24:00 on May 19, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported 5 new confirmed cases, including 1 imported case (in Inner Mongolia) and 4 local cases (all in Jilin); no new deaths; 3 new suspected cases, including 2 imported cases (all in Shanghai) and 1 local case (in Shanghai).

The United States

U.S. president Donald Trump announced the rules of the $19 billion U.S. agricultural aid program on Tuesday, and farmers covered by the plan can start applying for aid next week. Farmers who have suffered price losses of 5 per cent or more can receive direct payments of up to $250000 per person, according to a notice from the USDA.

According to a forecast released by the Congressional Budget Office on the 19th, GDP in the United States will fall at an annual rate of 38 percent in the second quarter, and the number of unemployed will increase by 26 million compared with the end of 2019. As concerns about the epidemic abate and restrictions are relaxed, the economy is expected to begin to recover in the second half of 2020, and employment will also "significantly improve" in the third quarter. However, "continued social alienation will dampen economic activity and the labour market for some time." The Congressional Budget Office believes that the unemployment rate in the United States will remain high for some time and is expected to fall to 8.6% by the end of 2021.

Us President Donald Trump said on the 19th that he was considering a travel ban on Latin America, especially Brazil. At present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has become the third largest number of confirmed cases in the world, second only to the United States and Russia.

Department of Homeland Security: extend the ban on non-essential travel in Mexico and Canada until June 22.

There are early signs of a partial recovery, said U.S. National Economic adviser David Cudlow. Let's cut taxes for the middle class and reach a good trade deal.

Confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Texas rose 2.5%, below the seven-day average of 2.9%.

Trump said he was considering banning travel from Brazil.

Trump said the relationship with Canada is very good and that the opening of the border with Canada could be achieved by June 21.

Governor of Illinois: four regions of Illinois will enter the third phase of economic restart by the end of May.

Korea

[latest epidemic situation in South Korea] there were 32 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in South Korea, totaling 11110.

(Korean media: the trend of spread of mass infection in Itaewon has weakened. According to South Korea Radio International (KBS) on the 19th, it has been 10 days since the mass infection occurred in the nightclub of Itaewon in Seoul, South Korea. At present, the number of related cases has increased to more than 170. Epidemic prevention authorities believe that the spread of collective infection in Itaewon has weakened. According to the report, the number of confirmed cases in a single day once increased to 29, but has continued to decrease in recent days. Itaeyuan-related cases concentrated in the capital circle area, Seoul area has the most cumulative cases, more than 90 cases, followed by Gyeonggi Province and Incheon.

Other regions

[the latest epidemic in Canada: the cumulative number of confirmed cases has increased to 79112] according to Worldometers world real-time statistics, as of 07:15 Beijing time on May 20, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Canada reached 79112 and the cumulative number of deaths reached 5912.

[the latest epidemic in New Zealand: a total of 1503 cases of new crown pneumonia] according to Worldometers world real-time statistics, up to now, there have been 1503 cases of new crown pneumonia in New Zealand, 21 deaths and 1442 cured cases.

[the latest epidemic in Australia: 7068 confirmed cases and 100 deaths] according to the latest statistics from the real-time data update website Worldometers, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Australia is 7068, the cumulative number of deaths is 100, and the cumulative cure is 6413.

[the latest epidemic in Singapore: a total of 28794 confirmed cases] the Ministry of Health in Singapore released epidemic data on May 19, showing that there were 451 new crown confirmed cases in Singapore, with a total of 28794 confirmed cases. A total of 22 deaths were reported.

National response measures and related impacts

Orr, chairman of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand: retail interest rates in New Zealand are expected to fall further; banking competition is expected to put pressure on margin and lower interest rates.

The Fed of New Zealand does not want to implement negative interest rates at the moment; it is ready to do so, but "later".

President of Colombia: extend epidemic prevention measures until May 31; Colombia will relax the blockade measures from June 1.

Brazilian economy Minister Geidez: Brazil plans to phase out the emergency aid program.

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