5.19 minutes of morning meeting in SMM aluminum
Disk: overnight Shanghai Aluminum main 2007 contract opened slightly lower at 12580 yuan / ton, daily line closed in Zhongyang, volume and price increased, the index was high before refreshing. The trend of Shanghai aluminum futures has intensified, and the monthly difference between contracts has continued to expand to more than 300 yuan / ton in recent months. Overnight aluminum opened at $1463.0 / ton, and closed at $1500.0 / ton in late trading, an increase of 2.74%. Trading volume increased to 17000 lots and positions increased to 870000 lots. The dollar index fell below the 100 mark to 99.626, down nearly 0.7% macroscopically: 1) US stocks rose sharply yesterday, with the Dow up 3.85%; the Nasdaq up 2.44%; and the S & P 500 up 3.15%. (lidocaine) 2) risk appetite rebounded as reports that an experimental vaccine showed signs of a new coronavirus immune response. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed his willingness to print more US dollars and extend monetary stimulus measures to combat the coronavirus economic crisis, which encouraged investors. (Lido inflation) 4) the initial value of the actual annualized quarterly rate of GDP in Japan in the first quarter, the previous value:-7.10%, the expected value:-4.60%, announced:-3.4%. Japanese government: Japan's GDP in the first quarter marks the second consecutive quarter of contraction of Japan's GDP. Japan's exports in the first quarter recorded their biggest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2011. According to the latest statistics, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has exceeded 4.88 million. At present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in six countries in the world has exceeded 200000. In addition to the United States, there are also Russia, Britain, Spain, Italy and Brazil. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States is close to 1.55 million. (bullish) fundamentals: 1) on May 18, SMM counted the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum (including SHFE warehouse receipts): 135000 tons in Shanghai, 42.0 tons in Wuxi, 207000 tons in the South China Sea, and a total of 1.007 million tons of aluminum ingots for consumption, down 51000 tons from the previous Thursday. Strong efforts to go to the library. (Lido) 2) the processing fee of aluminum bars in Guangdong has been strong, which has recently been maintained at 700 won 800 yuan / ton, and the consumption of downstream profile factories has remained stable. (Lido) 3) the price of aluminum rod in the north is lower than that in the north, and the processing fee decreases gradually with the rising of aluminum base price and the weakening of superimposed consumption. At present, it is maintained at 150 per cent of 400 yuan per ton. (neutral) 4) the price of alumina remained stable in the short term, and the rise was weak. Due to the stability of the supply end of alumina and the continuous low-price transactions overseas and arrival in Hong Kong, the domestic price was suppressed. (bullish) spot side: yesterday morning, the spot price in Wuxi, Shanghai, was between 13140mur13160 yuan / ton. Most of the inquiries were made early in the morning, and the actual trading volume was not obvious. As a large family began to announce the purchase plan, and the quotation was extremely ideal, the shippers' enthusiasm for shipping increased, and the overall market price was pulled up. In the later stage, the price was concentrated between 13,180 and 13200 yuan / ton, and the price was 170 yuan / ton higher than last Friday. The price of rising water to the plate is between 140 won 160 yuan / ton, but in spite of this, the spot is still tight, and the consignors are still more than the shippers. Yesterday, the trading of traders in the market was active, and the spot sentiment of the strong market remained unabated in the short term. The spot rising water rose to around 200 yuan / ton this morning. The high rising water in Shandong and Henan attracted some aluminum ingots to inflow. The spot delivery volume in East China decreased, and the circulation of aluminum ingots was restricted continuously. Conclusion: the two sessions of the whole country will be held this week, and the macro expectations are expected to give a boost to non-ferrous metals, and the fundamentals continue to go to the warehouse to form support for Shanghai Aluminium. It is difficult for the price gap to narrow rapidly in the first week after the month change, and it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term. Need to continue to pay attention to the release of macro signals. In addition, we need to pay attention to the changes in the spot circulation of the market and the ranking of multi-short positions in the exchange.
(SMM Xu Man 021 Mel 51595898)