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[SMM Analysis] fundamentals are short to restrain the lead price market and look forward to the release of positive results from the two sessions.
May 18,2020 10:44CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM5 March 18: approaching the holding of the two sessions, the market is waiting for policy signals. Today, non-ferrous metals generally rose, of which the Shanghai lead 2006 contract continued the upward trend, rising to 13985 yuan / ton, tentatively reported at 13950 yuan / ton as of 10:15 today, an increase of 0.83%.

"Click to view the SMM lead industry chain database

In terms of inventory, according to SMM research, as of May 15, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 9300 tons, an increase of 1400 tons over the week of May 8. Lead ingots began to show a small accumulation, ending a two-month decline, followed by recycled lead is expected to continue to increase, and imported lead is about to arrive in Hong Kong, social stocks are expected to increase again.

On the supply side, the production of primary lead enterprises is stable, the new expanded capacity of recycled lead is gradually released, and the supply is gradually increased, but the supply of waste batteries is becoming more and more tight with the increase of demand, which reduces the production profits of enterprises and pays attention to the output of the newly expanded capacity. On the consumer side, the terminal consumption of lead-acid batteries is still poor, and the inventory of finished battery products remains high. Overall, SMM believes that recycled lead enterprises continue to sell volume, lead ingots social inventory is accumulated, it is expected that short-term fundamentals will still restrain the trend of lead prices, due to the holding of the two sessions this week, the market is looking forward to the release of policy-related good news, or there is some emotional support for the market.

In 2019, global trade disputes escalated, the global economy was under pressure, and central banks began a wave of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that at present and for some time to come, the basic trend of China's economic stability and long-term improvement will remain unchanged, and 2020 will also be the year when China will build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the 13th five-year Plan ends. In this context, the new crown virus is rampant all over the world, and it is worth looking forward to how to achieve steady economic growth.

In the zinc market, the production of overseas mines increased step by step in 2019, but the production of domestic mines was repeatedly hindered. In the first quarter of 2020, zinc prices fell below the mine cost line, and mine profits plummeted. How will the profits of smelters and mines be distributed in 2020? can overseas mines be expected to be put into production under the disturbance of the epidemic? In addition, the output of domestic zinc refining smelters broke through the bottleneck and set a new record in 2019, but under the disturbance at the supply end of zinc mines in 2020, can the capacity utilization rate of smelters maintain a high load? Whether the infrastructure investment under the tone of "stabilizing the economy" in 2020 can exceed the expected performance, whether the galvanizing industry can exceed the seasonal performance is still worth looking forward to, and the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc may be reversed in 2020, so paying attention to and distributing structural opportunities is another choice. Can zinc prices fall and rise in 2020?

In response to the above topics, SMM will invite industry celebrities, industry professionals, enterprises from the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain to hold the "2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit" in Changsha to jointly discuss the current situation and problems of the industry, as well as the future development prospects, and analyze the fundamentals and the future trend of zinc prices.

Click to sign up for SMM 2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit

Scan the QR code in the picture to sign up for the lead-zinc summit and fill in the personal information on the last page. The meeting staff will contact you later!

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