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[selected SMM Weekly report] overseas supply side pressure slightly relieves Shanghai zinc or maintains weak shock
May 16,2020 09:23CST
translation
Source:SMM
[SMM Weekly selection] TC with a low price of 5000 yuan / metal ton has become the bottom line of the smelter. Since the beginning of this week, zinc concentrate processing fees in various regions of the country have tended to stabilize, the rate of decline has obviously slowed down, and some areas have remained unchanged, mainly because the current raw material inventory level of domestic smelters has stabilized at 20 skyward, maintaining a relatively safe level. And from the port inventory point of view, the actual zinc concentrate inventory in the port is not low. Although they already have cargo rights, some of them are concentrated in the hands of traders. If the later processing fees stop falling and rebounding, the possibility of traders dumping goods cannot be ruled out.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

"SMM Zinc Industry chain Weekly report" released, the weekly report SMM will select the hot topics, prices, market or major changes in the industry chain information released into a document for your reference.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of the zinc industry chain:

Zinc market forecast next week: in terms of Shanghai zinc, the impact of macro news this week is relatively limited, while the fundamentals support strong, zinc prices although a small correction but the overall still remain volatile. Next week, in terms of fundamentals, the disturbance on the internal supply side is relatively limited. Hunan Xuanhua entered the state of maintenance ahead of time, but at the same time, refineries such as Taifeng finished the maintenance, offsetting part of the reduction, and basically maintained stability under the increase or decrease. However, this week, the import window opened, a large number of imported zinc in the market circulation, with the price comparison continues to repair, it is expected that there will still be some bonded area zinc ingot imports into the market next week, then may give greater pressure on the supply side. On the consumer side, the differentiation between the north and the south continues, and the orders of most galvanizing enterprises in the north are relatively stable, but in the south, due to more enterprises engaged in foreign trade exports, the overall impact of the overseas epidemic situation is still significant. Some large and medium-sized die-casting zinc alloy enterprises only maintained half of the start-up, while some enterprises suspended production for 1 min for 2 weeks. Zinc oxide, batteries and other industries due to the sharp decline in foreign trade orders for tires and batteries, the overall recovery is also relatively limited. In terms of fundamentals, Shanghai zinc is expected to remain weak. Technically speaking, MACD is about to turn into a dead fork, but there is still some support for the lower 20-day moving average. Overall, next week, Lun Zinc is expected to run at 1920 Rue 1980 US dollars / ton; Shanghai Zinc 2007 contract is expected to run at 16200 Mel 16800 yuan / ton, and the spot side is expected to rise water around 130 Mel 160 yuan / ton in June.

Processing fee: TC with a low price of 5000 yuan / metal ton becomes the bottom line of the smelter. Since the beginning of this week, zinc concentrate processing fees in various regions of the country have tended to stabilize, the rate of decline has obviously slowed down, and some areas have remained unchanged, mainly because the current raw material inventory level of domestic smelters has stabilized at 20 skyward, maintaining a relatively safe level. And from the port inventory point of view, the actual zinc concentrate inventory in the port is not low. Although they already have cargo rights, some of them are concentrated in the hands of traders. If the later processing fees stop falling and pick up, we do not rule out the possibility of traders dumping goods. On the whole, we think that the short-term domestic zinc ore processing fees tend to be stable, while in terms of imports, at present, there are quotations of US $120,0,140 / dry ton in China. It is understood that the actual transaction pressure on the smelter is extremely great, and the smelter can only accept the price of US $150,0,170 at present.

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Catalogue of "SMM Zinc Industry chain Weekly report" in this issue

Main points of this weekly report: processing fees, import profit and loss inventory

Zinc industry hot spot: some Peruvian mining enterprises begin to resume production, the actual recovery is expected to be limited

Zinc concentrate market: TC with a low price of 5000 yuan / metal ton becomes the bottom line of the smelter.

Refinery dynamics

Imported zinc market: domestic and foreign price comparison has been revised to accelerate the inflow of imported zinc in the bonded area.

Zinc market forecast next week: overseas supply side pressure slightly ease domestic or maintain weak shock

Review of Zinc City: there is no new bright spot in the market. High zinc prices in the two cities have fallen.

Galvanizing: continuous improvement of terminal data galvanizing consumption will remain high

Die-casting zinc alloy: the order did not significantly improve the purchase of die-casting zinc alloy factory is limited.

Zinc oxide: zinc oxide starts to pick up slightly zinc price callback and gradually build inventory

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