SMM, May 15, 2020:
During the epidemic period, SMM through the aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises start weekly tracking, in order to understand the most real aluminum downstream processing enterprises return to work. SMM survey samples are distributed in 12 provinces in China, a total of 41 enterprise samples, the specific distribution is as follows:
To sum up, this week, aluminum downstream leading enterprises started a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, the overall stable, each processing plate start stable, still with construction, medicine and other bright spots consumer plate led the entire aluminum downstream consumption, air-conditioning foil, 5G communication base station consumption has a rising trend, but its proportion is still relatively small. On the one hand, the product structure is more corresponding to the profile, aluminum plate and foil enterprises most of the existing orders can cover the whole of May, up to this week has not changed significantly; On the other hand, for the relatively scattered product structure, especially for some plate and foil enterprises, which account for a relatively large proportion of exports, although they try their best to adjust the product structure, but the demand does not increase synchronously, the inventory of finished products will increase. There is a risk of production reduction due to the decline in orders, which may occur as early as the end of May. And on the whole, more processing enterprises have varying degrees of concern about the new orders in June, so from the marginal change, the raw material procurement enthusiasm of the original aluminum processing enterprises has declined, which is obviously reflected in the aluminum bar demand. Northern aluminum bar demand has declined significantly. In the aspect of recycled aluminum consumption, due to the current scrap aluminum holder's willingness to ship greatly, but because the southern aluminum water bar arrives less, the processing fee is higher, the current remelting rod processing fee does not have the advantage, the remelting bar production capacity continues to restore the willingness to be low. Because the current aluminum bar processing fee is still high, the proportion of waste aluminum added to the aluminum water bar factory is still relatively low, and the reduction rate of the original aluminum instead of waste aluminum in the aluminum bar is slowing down. It is expected that next week, due to the current orders of aluminum processing enterprises are still relatively sufficient to continue to maintain stability, at the earliest end of the month, some processing enterprises may reduce production due to insufficient orders, and the inventory of finished products in some processing enterprises will increase.
Specific product types:
Primary aluminum alloy: the start-up of primary aluminum alloy continues to be stable this week. The aluminum wheel factory resumed production at the end of the holiday this week, but the increase in the downstream start of the A356.2 alloy did not stimulate the primary alloy plant to increase its operating load. The reduction of production in the previous large factories and the increase in processing costs led to a rise in A356.2 processing fees. This week, the A356.2 bulk processing fee was 900 yuan / ton (East China warehouse self-raising prices), an increase of 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. It is expected that the operating rate of primary alloy will continue to be stable next week.
Aluminum plate and strip: the operating rate of large plate and strip enterprises is basically stable this week. Relatively speaking, the orders of large enterprises with leading plates and belts are still relatively abundant, but the new orders are slightly less than those in the previous period. The overall scheduling period is between half and a month. On the export side, although foreign trade orders have not improved, the impact of some large enterprises whose proportion of exports is less than 20% is not obvious, and the good state of domestic orders can still make up for the gap. For enterprises with relatively high exports, although foreign trade orders have dropped significantly, However, due to the consumption of aluminum water in the group company, capacity utilization has not declined, and more finished products have been converted into inventory. In addition, there is enterprise feedback, there is a small amount of raw material hoarding in the early stage of the company, with the aluminum price rebounding, the current willingness to stock obviously fell back, and began to revise into the normal procurement plan.
Aluminum cable: the operating rate of large cable companies this week is the same as last week. According to the feedback of large cable enterprises, the market is relatively stable, because the cable order delivery period itself is longer, according to the national network to determine the production plan, because the enterprise received more orders before the year, the current operating rate can still maintain a stable state, but the production is still the main orders received in the early stage, so far, the orders released by the national network south network are still not obvious, municipal engineering orders show signs of warming. However, this part of the order is difficult to compare with the national network order quantity, so it does not contribute much to the overall operating rate. As far as the raw material end is concerned, the recent concussion of aluminum rod processing fees in North and East China has fallen back, and the holder feedback, in addition to the rise in aluminum base prices to suppress processing fees, downstream stock is not as strong as the previous period is also one of the reasons.
Aluminum profile: there is little change in the start of the profile enterprise this week. The demand of construction profile enterprises depends on the real estate and infrastructure industry, and the order situation of aluminum formwork is good. Orders from industrial profile enterprises are scattered, focusing on 5G communication base stations and rail transit in the near future. in addition, the recovery of the automobile industry will also boost some demand. But export-related orders have recovered slowly. In terms of raw materials, the processing fee in the northern region has become weaker, and the processing fee in Wuxi is relatively stable, but the processing fee in Guangdong has rebounded again due to the lack of goods, and the procurement of processing enterprises is mainly based on immediate demand. The overall high operating rate of profile enterprises will continue in May.
Aluminum foil: the operating rate of aluminum foil in the first week of May was 85.3%, up 1.7 percentage points from the week before May 1. From the point of view of sub-products, the order of air-conditioning foil has increased month-on-month, and some air-conditioning foil factories have received orders in July, and the operating rate has also increased, because the sales volume of air-conditioning in the first week of May increased by about 380% compared with the previous week. At the same time, the dismal air-conditioning market in April also increased the production and marketing performance requirements of air-conditioning plants in May. In the case of real market demand, it is only natural for air-conditioning factories to change and increase their production scheduling plans, so they have increased the purchase of raw materials. On the battery foil side, there was a slight decrease in orders, mainly for exports to the Asia-Pacific region.
Recycled aluminum alloy: the operating rate of recycled aluminum industry remains stable this week. Mainly due to weak demand and the increase in the circulation of waste aluminum both offset, the production capacity has not been further expanded. In terms of aluminum alloy ingots, demand at home and abroad has not improved, the recovery of the overseas automobile industry still has to wait until June at the earliest, and domestic consumption still needs more powerful stimulus policies to be implemented. the year-on-year consumption data of cars look good only because of the low base in the face of the fifth and sixth countries last year. Aluminum bars, the overall demand than before, there are signs of weakening, mainly due to downstream profile enterprises, although the current orders are full, but the new orders in June have not yet been known, the purchase volume has declined, and relatively speaking, due to train wagon shipping problems in the south, less goods can maintain relatively high processing fees for the time being, and the support for processing fees in the north has fallen to a certain extent. In the aspect of remelting rod, the current remelting rod processing fee is still low, the advantage is weak, the remelting rod continues to restore power is weak, and the new consumption of original aluminum instead of waste aluminum is almost disappeared. However, at present, the processing fee of aluminum water rod is high, and the original aluminum waste aluminum still exists. The operating rate of recycled aluminum is expected to be stable next week, and the domestic impact of the increase in imported aluminum ingots may increase at the end of the month. Under inventory pressure, there may be a new wave of production cuts in the recycled aluminum industry at the end of May or early June.
(Shanghai Nonferrous Network Aluminum Group)