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SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.05.11 Mui 2020.05.15)
May 15,2020 20:14CST
translation
Source:SMM
SMM spot Metal spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.05.11 Mui 2020.05.15)
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 15 May:

This week, the basic metals showed a gradual decline, as the optimism cooled, especially the concern about the second outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and the Federal Reserve explicitly denied the possibility of using a negative interest rate policy. The dollar strongly returned to more than 100 points, allowing the basic metals to fall back under pressure. The resistance of each item varied. SMMI fell 0.67% weekly, with lead and zinc leading the biggest decline, and Shanghai zinc falling below 10, 000. Weekly drop of 2.8%, spot due to near delivery in exchange for the monthly rise in water, SMMI.Zn weekly decline of 2.35%. Shanghai lead pressure fell back, recycled lead supply rose steadily, spot rising and falling back obviously, SMMI.Pb weekly fell 2.12%. Shanghai nickel was suppressed by short to fall below the 100000 yuan mark, spot Russian nickel held stable in the flat water line, Jinchuan nickel kept rising water held stable, SMMI.Ni weekly fell 1.57%. Although the copper in London copper Shanghai period has a pullback adjustment, but the decline is limited, still in the range of concussion, the spot from rising water to paste water and then back up the water situation, showing a V-shaped trend within the week, SMMI.Cu fell 0.57% in the week. Aluminum fell back in the week, Shanghai aluminum wide shock, the bottom of the week 12300 yuan / ton, the bottom rebounded in 12600 yuan / ton, 1.3% increase in the week, due to the arrival of delivery, near the strong and far weak state of the spot from the water to the discount state, SMMI.Al rose 1.4% per week. Shanghai tin week around the 130000 gate pressure adjustment, spot water is high, SMMI.Sn rose 0.19%. With the two sessions approaching next week, the macro confidence of the market is still on the high side, especially in the spot market, all kinds of metal stocks continue to decline, and the demand for the start of domestic downstream processing plants is still fair. However, all kinds of overseas economic data still show a difficult situation of economic recovery, the basic metals may still be revised up, and the internal and external strength is weak.

Copper: Lun copper this week failed to continue the upward trend of the previous week, gradually lower during the week. Fears of a second outbreak of the new crown epidemic have intensified in the market, with another cluster of infections in South Korea. Fauci, an infectious disease expert in the United States, also said that the premature lifting of the blockade could lead to a further outbreak of the new crown epidemic. Copper prices were hit by good news about multinational plans to restart their economies, falling day by day from a weekly high of $5370 a tonne at the start of the week. In the face of the current grim economic situation, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly denied the possibility of using a negative interest rate policy, adding to the pessimism of investors' assessment that the macro economy is in deep recession. Fundamental news supported the bottom of copper prices, and the temporary closure of Zambia's border with Zambia this week forced delays in copper exports via Tanzania, easing concerns among investors about the oversupply of copper. Chou Chu Lun copper opened at US $5309 / tonne. After a short-term rise, it reached a weekly high of US $5370 / tonne and then quickly fell to US $5250 / tonne, fluctuating within the range of US $5190mil / tonne during the week. News of a 50, 000 tonne surge in LME stocks on Thursday pushed copper prices to a low of $5146 a tonne for the week, but copper prices rebounded to a low of $5250, down 0.92 per cent a week, after the market quickly digested. This week, the copper position increased by more than 8000 hands to 274000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 12000 hands to more than 63000 hands. Lun copper week once fell below the 60-day moving average and 5-10 moving average, but after the week to get the 10-day moving average support, KDJ opening narrowed, the technical side of the copper price is still in the interval shock pattern, the pattern has not been completely destroyed, continue to pay attention to macro news can be good for copper prices, support copper to hold on to $5200, storage energy above $5300 / ton.

This week, Shanghai copper as a whole showed a V-shaped trend of first suppressing and then rising, and the macro optimism cooled slightly. The main reason was that China's April CPI and PPI data released during the week were lower than expected. In particular, PPI reflected that domestic industrial product prices continued to fall due to the impact of the epidemic and the continued decline in international commodity prices, which had a negative impact on copper prices. The escalation of tensions between China and the United States has raised concerns about worsening trade, partly dragging down copper prices. However, the market is still confident that China's economy will continue to recover, and the central bank's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report has sent signals to the outside world that more stimulus policies are likely to be introduced. Fundamentals, domestic demand is still good at this stage, superimposed Jiangxi provincial government issued 16 related measures to support the copper industry, forming a strong support for copper prices. At the beginning of the week, the main force of Shanghai copper opened at 43650 yuan / ton, the upper exploration 44000 gate failed, and fell from the highest point of 43950 yuan / ton during the week. Near the exchange month, the long and short sides accelerated the reduction of the month's contract, resulting in 0506 contract spread once expanded to 250 yuan / ton. Within the week, Shanghai copper showed a concussive downward pattern, the lowest point reached 42510 yuan / ton. Affected by the surge in international oil prices over the weekend, copper prices rebounded to around 43260 yuan / tonne, closing at 43130 yuan / tonne, down 0.87 per cent on the week. At present, Shanghai copper closing Yang, the bottom of the 20-day and 60-day moving average support, the technical side of the copper price is still upward momentum.

Spot sales fell overall this week. The 05 contract is approaching delivery this week, and the spot rising water is closely following the guidelines for the change of the price spread between months. At the beginning of the week, the 05 contract opened a large number of positions, resulting in the widening of the price spread between months, with the maximum magnifying to around 230 yuan / tonne. The near strong and far weak pattern has significantly enhanced the willingness of the holder to exchange, the spot quotation has been cut down, the downstream is afraid of high, and the spot quotation has changed from 30 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton to the discount situation. The minimum discount water 70 yuan / ton ~ discount 30 yuan / ton, with the month position gradually return to the safe range, position sharp flat volume decline, the next month price difference gradually narrowed, spot discount rebounded, Friday is the last trading day of the month, the monthly price spread has narrowed to 70-100 yuan / ton range, the spot quotation therefore returned to the rising water 30-80 yuan / ton range. At the beginning of the week, the outflow of market supply increased significantly, and traders once lacked speculation to buy prosperity, but as copper futures prices fell day by day and the price spread narrowed, the willingness to receive goods in the market increased, and the willingness to replenish goods downstream increased, and the transaction situation gradually improved.

Aluminum: aluminum fell back this week, the trend is relatively weak during the week, opened at $1487.5 / ton, Monday trial upward, but the upper $1500 / ton level resistance is strong, and the top weight superimposed 20 moving average, Lun aluminum is difficult to break through the upper siege, the following days continuously sinking, Thursday recorded a weekly low of $1467.5 / ton, refreshing the lowest level since April 9, as of 17:20 on Friday, aluminum is difficult to break through the upper siege, sinking continuously for the next few days, recording a low of $1467.5 / ton on Thursday, the lowest level since April 9, as of 17:20 on Friday. Lun aluminum closed at $1473.5 / tonne, down $18 / tonne, or 1.21%, trading volume 1661 to 46757 hands, position increased by 46450 hands to 864000 hands, short positions increased mainly, closed in the small negative line, the center of gravity is below all moving averages. LME inventory report showed a continuous increase in inventory during the week, a cumulative increase of 75150 tons during the week, the recent pressure on aluminum, is expected to continue to test the upper resistance level in the evening, next week focus on the dollar index and Europe and the United States countries PMI and CPI and other macro key data.

This week, the Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract maintained a wide concussion during the week, opened at 12420 yuan / ton, and leaked to 12285 yuan / ton in the middle of the week to its lowest point in the week, refreshing the lowest level since the end of April, the bottom 20 moving average, and then rebounding from the low level. Up to the close of trading on Friday, it closed at 12600 yuan / ton. up to this week, the K line recorded a three-week Lianyang, up 170 yuan / ton during the week, an increase of 1.37%. The center of gravity is above the 5 / 10 moving average, trading volume increased by 210000 hands to 467000 hands, position increased by 10872 hands to 154000 hands, weekly KDJ third line up, MACD green line shortened. Today, the second wave of reduction of the central bank official implementation day, the macro atmosphere is relatively relaxed, most of the basic metals have turned red, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to maintain interval shocks at night, try to stand firm 60-day moving average, pay attention to the change of long short positions in the evening.

Spot trading is better this week. The spot prices in Shanghai and Wuxi are between 12750 yuan and 13040 yuan / ton, the average weekly price is basically the same as last week, the actual spot discount is between 60 yuan and 80 yuan / ton, the early weekly rise is relatively strong, and there is a drop near the weekend. The spot price in Hangzhou is between 1274013070 yuan / ton. This week, a large customer normal procurement, near the weekend procurement volume has increased, inter-trade trading is very active, the willingness of both parties are more obvious, but by comparison, the holder is more willing to bid. Downstream normal procurement this week, low in the middle of the week and near the weekend stock increased. The overall heat in East China this week was basically flat compared with last week, focusing on market demand after the month was changed.

Lead: Zhou Lun lead probe low recovery, technical pressure on each moving average, and the medium and long period to see Lun lead in the downward channel. At the beginning of the week, Lun lead in the domestic strength led by shock upward, high to $1683 / ton, then the field funds found that there was no emergency, coupled with the decline in overseas financial markets, Lun lead shock fell back, low to $1592.5 / ton, a few days later, the market mood was stable, Lun lead shock rebounded, as of Friday, Lun lead reported at $1627 / ton. Next week, mainly based on U. S. home sales data, another focus on the number of U. S. unemployment benefits, from the fundamentals of Lun lead, there is no factor that can promote the rise of Lun lead, the current inventory volatility is low, the structure maintains the C structure, overseas consumption has no clear signs of recovery, and maintains a partial view on Lun lead in the short term. Lun lead: us $1580-1680 per ton

The overall amplitude of lead in Shanghai is larger this week, but the trend is rising and falling. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead shock rose, high to 14340 yuan / ton, then lead price shock weakened, back to the rise, but due to the shortage of waste battery supply and other factors, Shanghai lead stabilized, and recovered the decline on Friday, as of Friday, Shanghai lead at 13940 yuan / ton. From the fundamentals of Shanghai lead, the supply of primary lead enterprises stable production, recycled lead enterprises continue to release volume this week, spot rising water weakening, social inventory barrier increase, the fundamental aspect is indeed weak, the biggest problem at present is that the supply of waste batteries is tight, the expectation to the market is that the supply of recycled lead is not large, but in fact, the mainstream long-term view of the market is still bearish, and the pressure of selling in the high market is still very great. Lead in June: 13650Mel 14100 yuan / ton

This week the spot mainstream runs in 1405014400 yuan / ton. This week, lead prices fluctuated, refinery inventory low rose, market bulk order sales pressure increased, bulk order quotations increased one after another, and the discount began to expand. As of Friday, the mainstream market reported that the average price of SMM1# lead rose to 50 yuan / ton out of the factory. In the trade market, the circulation of goods in the market has increased one after another, and most of the holders have halved the rising water with the plate compared with last week. As of Friday, the recycled lead rose to 200-300 yuan / ton on the 2006 contract. The circulation of recycled lead in the market is stable this week. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of recycled lead with tax will discount the average price of SMM1# lead to 100,200 yuan / ton.

Zinc: this week Lun Zinc rushed higher and fell back, Zhou Chu Lun Zinc still continued last week's rebound trend, the price center of gravity further rose, once rose to $2033 / ton, the price returned to the early March finishing platform near, but the current overseas start to resume production process is slightly slow, the drive to demand is limited, the price continues to show weakness, Lun zinc high fall, the price fell to $2000 / degree after finishing to continue to decline. As the epidemic is brought under control, five Peruvian mining companies plan to restart operations, and the market is worried about the shortage of mining supply. At the same time, under the influence of the fall in surrounding metals, Lun Zinc broke the 10-day moving average support, the price center of gravity continued to move down, the lowest fell to 1912 US dollars / ton, on the technical side, the bottom was supported by the 20-day moving average and 60-day moving average, and the price rebounded to 1970 US dollars / ton, recovering some of the decline, but still down 2.65 per cent on a weekly basis.

This week, Shanghai and Zinc fell back from four consecutive negative highs, giving up most of the gains last week. On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc lost 17000 yuan / ton integer mark, the price along 16800-16950 yuan / ton between the high shock consolidation. Under the current situation of the massive inflow of imported zinc, the market is expected to fill the supply gap brought about by smelter overhaul. In the case of no new bright spot in the short-term market, the willingness of funds to continue to be long has weakened, a large number of long funds have been closed, prices have reduced their positions, and prices have continued to fall after breaking the 5-day moving average. Prices rebounded after falling below 16500 yuan / ton on Wednesday, but prices weakened again as they were suppressed by adhesions at the top of the 5-10 moving average. Prices fell to 16245 yuan a ton on Friday, touching the 20 moving average, but domestic inventories fell by nearly 10, 000 tons a week, according to smm, while prices rebounded on the back of a surge in crude oil. As of Friday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 16465 yuan / ton, down 2.8% from the previous week. The total position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 25800 to 243000 hands, and the strength of the bulls was weakening.

This week, the domestic market in Shanghai rose 120-140 yuan / ton to 06 contracts, Shuangyan and Chihong rose 140-160 yuan / ton to 06 contracts, imported SMC and YP rose 90-120 yuan / ton in June, and Spain, Belgium and Peru raised 70-100 yuan / ton in June. This week, zinc prices ushered in downward adjustment, downstream mining and buying activity significantly improved, at the same time, the first stage of the month expired, the market trading activity gradually increased, at the beginning of the week, zinc prices fell slightly, downstream still wait and see, domestic reports rose 140 yuan / ton in June, Shuangyan reported 150-160 yuan / ton in June, market trading mainly contributed by traders. In the second half of the week, the decline of zinc accelerated, the market quotation was relatively stable, the downstream inquiry procurement activity increased, imported Spain, Belgium quotation ushered in upward adjustment, rising water 50-70 yuan / ton up to 80-100 yuan / ton, gradually digested downstream, the actual consumption growth is obvious, this week transaction is better than last week.

The contract of zinc in Ningbo to Shanghai zinc 2006 rose 140 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai narrowed to 10 yuan / ton from 30 yuan / ton on Friday. In the first half of the week, zinc prices fluctuated strongly, most of the downstream enterprises were wait-and-see, and the willingness to buy was poor. The spot rising water was maintained at 110130 yuan / ton on the June contract, but the overall transaction situation was very light. In the second half of the week, zinc prices fell back, traders' willingness to raise prices became stronger, an average increase of 10-20 yuan / ton, the basic market transaction situation in the June contract rose 140-160 yuan / ton, downstream wait-and-see willingness to weaken, actively buy. Overall, the transaction situation gradually improved this week, the lower reaches of the bargain to buy, but to the warehouse range is more limited.

The price of zinc in Guangdong market this week focused on the discount of 20 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton for the contract of 2006 of zinc in Shanghai. The discount of 110 yuan / ton in Guangdong market is the same as that in Shanghai market last Friday. Zinc prices fluctuated at a high level at the beginning of the week, and holders still offered high prices at the beginning of the week, while downstream buyers were less willing to buy high zinc ingots. Although the inventory of zinc ingots in Guangdong did not change much, the rising water attracted the outflow of warehouse receipt resources and increased the amount of money that could flow from the market. At the same time, it was rumored in the market that there was an inflow of imported zinc in the Guangdong Free Trade Zone, and the holders began to lower the prices for shipments, and traders continued to depress prices. Spot on the futures 06 contract once converted to a discount of 10-20 yuan transaction. In the second half of the week, as zinc prices fell back, downstream procurement demand improved, leading to market transactions, and near delivery restrictions spot discount, Guangdong still did not improve during the week, inventory continued to fall, holders homeopathic prices, spot futures 06 contracts into rising trading. On the whole, the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong is more than 100 yuan, the volume of goods sent by smelters to Guangdong is difficult to increase, and the decline in inventory provides a certain support for spot rising water in Guangdong.

This week, Tianjin's zinc contract for Shanghai zinc 2005 rose by 100 yuan to 270 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin stock market rose from 30 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation range of Tianjin rising water this week was relatively small. At the beginning of this week, zinc prices fluctuated mainly in Wanqi high, traders' willingness to raise prices is weak, maintain the previous post water quotation, but because the spot price remains high, downstream enterprises have a poor willingness to receive goods, and the transaction is light. In the middle of the week, zinc prices gradually fell, and market news said that five or six thousand tons would arrive on Friday, superimposed refinery shipments increased, Tianjin market spot circulation increased, traders continued to maintain rising prices, transactions were significantly better than at the beginning of the week. Into Friday, zinc prices rebounded low, downstream receiving better, traders are willing to raise prices, mainstream brands posted water in 170-270 yuan / ton, transactions are flat than before. Overall, the market volume has increased this week, but zinc prices fell, downstream reception sentiment improved, Tianjin slightly to the warehouse, it is expected that the discount next week is flat compared with this week.

Tin: this week, after the opening of the Lunxi electronic disk, the center of gravity has shifted down after the high position consolidation at the beginning of the session. After the opening of the Lunxi electronic disk at the beginning of the week with US $15290 / ton, the earthquake amplitude gradually narrowed at the end of the finishing interval from the Lunxi electronic disk to the triangular horizontal disk. At the beginning of the week, the overall consolidation was maintained near US $15150-15450 / ton, and the K line was supported by the lower 5-20 JEMA. Then Lunxi fell and tested the triangular rail and integer level near the $15000 / ton support level, and the daily level K line gradually fell below the 5-20 moving average and was suppressed by it. As of 15: 00 on Friday, the latest price for Lunxi was $15105 a tonne. Zhou Nelunxi fell 85 US dollars per ton, or 0.56%, with a turnover of 850 hands and 17515 positions, an increase of 202lots and an increase of positions. This week, Lunxi is a small Yin line, the center of gravity is relatively stable compared with last week, and the physical part is supported by the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, the daily line grade KDJ and MACD are relatively weak, and the K line is located in the middle track of the Brin belt.

This week Shanghai tin main force 2007 contract at the beginning of the week is also a high concussion trend, and then the center of gravity has dropped. At the beginning of the week, the main tin 2007 contract in Shanghai opened at 130550 yuan / ton, which was affected by the reduction of long and short positions and the increase of short positions one after another, and remained in the high range of 129000-132000 yuan / ton. Then the long force gradually reduced positions, Shanghai tin 2007 contract surface center of gravity began to fall, the lowest down to the week low 127810 yuan / ton after rebounding. The Shanghai tin 2007 contract closed at 129240 yuan per ton on Friday. During the week, it fell 940 yuan / ton, or 0.72%. The trading volume was 206000 lots, and the position was 31011 lots, a decrease of 1106 lots. The level of the weekly line is a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 20-day moving average, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 5-day moving average. In terms of indicators, MACD and KDJ showed signs of emptiness. Shanghai tin 2005 contract today, the final trading day, closed at 133900 yuan / ton, settlement price 133170 yuan / ton, position 510 hands, delivery volume 510 tons.

This week, the Shanghai-tin spot market generally followed the Shanghai tin market up and down, the center of gravity of the Shanghai tin market rose at the beginning of the week to maintain a high shock finishing trend, and then the center of gravity fell back. In the spot aspect, the spot market rose obviously at the beginning of the week, but the downstream enterprises were weak because of the high price, and the traders were also weak because of the rising tin market in Shanghai. Subsequently, market transactions continued to be weak, some businesses adjusted prices for shipment, but as the Shanghai tin market gradually fell, spot prices fell, some downstream enterprises just need to purchase, traders have received some goods. The overall trading atmosphere in the Shanghai-tin spot market this week is generally weak. On Friday, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 134000-135500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 134750 yuan / ton. In terms of water discount, on Friday, the Shanghai tin 2007 contract set Yunxi rose 6000 yuan / ton, the ordinary cloud word rose 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the small brand rose 5000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Renni opened at 12400 US dollars / ton this week, quickly reached 12500 U.S. dollars / ton after opening, then opened the shock downward trend, closed negative for four consecutive days, and on Friday, after the waist broke through the 60-day moving average, as of May 15, 1915, Lunickel has fallen to 11880 U.S. dollars / ton, leaving only 40 moving average support below. The trend of Lunni is weaker than that of Shanghai Nickel this week, and the Shanghai-Lun ratio is repaired to below 8.3. In the middle of the week, Indonesian mining industry operators speculated whether Indonesia would re-export nickel mines. Although there was no sign of re-opening nickel exports according to normal logical interpretation of its documents, the short side took advantage of the pressure, and the decline of Lunni was difficult to stop and continued to decline. With little change in fundamentals, Lunni is expected to fluctuate between US $11800 and US $12200 / tonne next week.

Shanghai nickel, opened at 101570 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the central bank released the first quarter monetary policy implementation report on Monday, the nickel market was boosted to 103450 yuan / ton, but then as the domestic CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, under the pressure of short positions, the last four consecutive negative, Friday is below the 5 / 10 / 20 three moving averages support, during the period once bottomed 99060 yuan / ton, approaching the 60-day moving average. It closed the week at 99400 yuan a tonne, down 2320 yuan, or 2.28 per cent, from last week. Weekly trading volume increased by 1.724 million hands to 3.441 million hands, weekly position increased by 12895 hands to 100000 hands. At present, after the Shanghai nickel fell from the platform level of 101000 yuan / ton, the 5 / 10 EMA crossed above and became the Shanghai nickel short-term pressure level, but the lower 60-day moving average is still supported to a certain extent, superimposed on the domestic "two sessions" to be held next week. Macro emotional relaxation will limit the space for exploration. Shanghai nickel is expected to shock between 98500-101000 yuan / ton next week.

The price of nickel in this cycle fluctuated widely within the day, and the trend showed a stepped downward trend during the week. The trading atmosphere in the spot market also gradually warmed up after the nickel price fell below 100000. At the beginning of the week, the spot price of Russian nickel was basically flat, but the price fluctuated between 101000 and 102000 yuan / ton, which suppressed the downstream procurement demand, and only the lower price of non-deliverable Russian nickel had a certain transaction. At the same time, Russian nickel holders have limited room to cut prices, holding steady quotations in the next few days in the 2006 contract flat to rise to 100 yuan / ton, until Friday trading volume has improved significantly. Jinchuan nickel week to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract water between 1000-1400 yuan / ton, although the Shanghai area has arrived, but the shipment is still limited, traders in the beginning of the week after replenishing the warehouse, there is still continuous demand for replenishing the warehouse; downstream side to pick up the goods as needed, there is no big deal. Due to the proximity to the delivery of the Shanghai Nickel 05 contract, after the drop in nickel prices, deliverable brands such as Bofeng Nickel and Jinchuan Electrodeposited Nickel also have a certain turnover, but generally speaking, the consumption capacity of pure nickel is weak this week, and the decline in spot inventory has also slowed down compared with the previous period. It is expected that traders will gradually turn to 07 contract quotations next week, and Russian nickel is expected to be quoted between 200 and 100 yuan / ton; Jinchuan nickel to 07 contract premium will remain above 1000 yuan / ton.

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