[may 14 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] the monthly spread continues to pick up the rising water is expected to rise

5.15 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting

[5. 15 SMM Bronze Morning meeting Summary] Macro aspect: 1) the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell for the sixth consecutive week to 2.981 million (higher than expected 2.5 million); the number of weekly jobless claims continued to hit an all-time high; the four-week average decreased from the previous value to 3.6165 million. 2) IEA monthly report: under the historic production reduction, the global oil market is expected to improve, with global refinery production expected to decrease by 13.4 million b / d in the second quarter and an average of 6.2 million b / d in 2020. [lido Kuroda] 3) Bank of Japan Governor Yoshihiko Kuroda: the Japanese economy is expected to experience negative growth; there is no need to cut interest rates now, and interest rates will remain low at present. If the impact of the epidemic expands, interest rates may be cut. The position of the Bank of Japan to achieve the 2% price target has not changed. [bearish] fundamentals: 1) the price difference of scrap copper yesterday was 695 yuan / ton (the ticket point is calculated as 5.9%). Although copper prices stopped falling yesterday, the market is still cautious about the trend in the future, and holders are willing to ship goods if they make a profit. It is understood that because of the high tax price of waste copper, some downstream manufacturers are using electrolytic copper in production, to a certain extent, continue to benefit the consumption of electrolytic copper. [Lido] 2) imported copper made a profit of about 200 yuan / ton yesterday. The price comparison continues to open and the foreign trade market remains active. In terms of reporting goods, there is a shortage of bills of lading arriving in Hong Kong in recent months, and traders have a strong willingness to raise prices, and many of them choose to import on their own. Most traders are still optimistic about the late market and are optimistic about the price comparison in July, so the bill of lading offer is also at a high level in mid-late June. On the demand side, the market is actively inquiring about the goods, focusing on the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong at the end of May and the beginning of June. The price of warehouse receipts remained high and the number of transactions was very small. 3) LME copper inventory increased by 55650 tons to 282675 tons on May 14, while copper warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 346 tons to 65570 tons. [bearish] 4) spot East China: on the spot side, the price spread continues to narrow and close, the rising water is expected to be raised again, and the transaction is expected to be further improved. It is estimated that spot water will rise by 10 yuan to 20 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 30% to 60% yesterday. In the spot market, copper prices are gradually rising near delivery, but high prices are difficult to close. After a series of sharp falls, the bearish mood in the market has subsided, and the supply of goods in circulation on the market has shrunk before the change month, while flat copper has risen slightly along with good copper, while downstream manufacturers are also waiting for a month change, and traders are not enthusiastic about taking goods. Yesterday, the overall activity of both supply and demand weakened. Copper prices and forecasts: copper prices first suppressed and then rose last night, the European session extended the afternoon decline, mainly due to US President Donald Trump's remarks caused investors to worry about the prospects of international trade, in addition, the number of people asking for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week since mid-March in the United States rose to 36.5 million, the market macro risk aversion sentiment was stimulated, Lun copper once fell back to $5146 / ton. But as the EIA cut its forecast for a fall in crude oil demand yesterday, oil prices rose more than 9 per cent, driving commodities higher and copper prices rebounded to the near-term range in late trading. It is estimated that today's copper is US $5210-5260 / ton, and Shanghai Copper is 43000-43400 yuan / ton.