SMM5, March 15: I. Macroeconomic policy changes:
1. The US employment data was slightly better than expected, with non-farm payrolls falling by 20.5 million in April, below expectations of 22 million. The unemployment rate was 14.7%, below the forecast of 16%.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: the economic outlook is highly uncertain and the downside risks are significant; the Federal Reserve will continue to "make full use of" various tools until the crisis is over and the economic recovery is proceeding smoothly; the view of the Federal Open Market Committee on negative interest rates has not changed, and negative interest rates are not our concern; according to the minutes of previous meetings on negative interest rates, "all" FOMC members are opposed to negative interest rates.
Two. Market performance:
Gold rose moderately last day, trading as high as $1736 an ounce and as low as $1711 an ounce, closing at $1730 an ounce.
Last day, TD gold rose slightly to close at 383.06 yuan / kg, up 1.57 yuan.
Last day, TD silver fell slightly to close at 3782 yuan / kg, down 3 yuan.
Three. Position analysis:
Gold and silver CFTC non-commercial net long positions are in the middle and high level, and the long position risk is gradually accumulating.
IV. Technical analysis:
On the last trading day, the London Gold Day Line closed a Zhongyang line, the closing price closed above MA5, MA5 upward, MA60 continued to extend upward, the price broke through the previous trading day high, the RSI index was in the normal range, the triangular interval ended with an upward breakthrough, and the short-term wide volatility was on the rise.
The lower first support is $1722 / oz, the second support is $1710 / oz, the upper first pressure is $1738 / oz, and the upper second pressure is $1747 / oz.
V. Today's concern
U. S. retail sales data at 20: 30.
VI. Recommendations for direction:
Due to the poor performance of a series of US economic data released for a period of time as a result of the global epidemic, some Fed officials have made pessimistic remarks about the economy, causing the market to gradually lose confidence that the global economy is picking up in the second half of the year. The butterfly effect of the epidemic is gradually fermenting, and funds continue to flow into safe-haven assets. Precious metals in the end of the consolidation, driven by capital to continue to break through, may break through this year's new high for some time to continue to rise.
For the gold mid-and long-term trading pre-single continue to hold, no position temporarily wait and see;
For a few days of trading London gold temporarily waiting for the opportunity to enter. ;
For several days of trading TD Jin temporarily wait and see for the opportunity to enter the market;
For intraday trading within 20% of Loco-London gold positions within 1722 bargain, 1709 stop loss, 1737 stop profit;
For intra-day trading TD gold position within 384.3 bargain into more, 382.5 stop loss, 387.2 stop profit;
For silver medium-and long-term trading low advance many continue to hold;
For several days of trading silver last Friday TD3800 hit a high short in yesterday's reduction of all positions on the basis of half the clearance;
For intraday trading silver TD3820 bargain into more, 3880 stop profit, 3770 stop loss;
For spot trade trading today may be a small correction to continue to rise, if not timely operation as far as possible to carry out hedging operations on futures.
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