SMM5 14: starting this week, nickel prices continue to fluctuate, and tend to fluctuate, Shanghai nickel rose to 103450 yuan / ton on Monday, but then quickly fell back, fell below the 100000 mark on Wednesday, but then quickly rebounded. Today (May 14) nickel prices staged another "V" word market, Shanghai Nickel 2007 main contract day opened at 101170 yuan / ton, after a brief probe, it fell under pressure until 100210 yuan / ton. However, the short did not make a further exploration of the lower 20-day moving average support, one after another after the reduction of Shanghai nickel re-red. At this time, the bulls also backed by the 10-day moving average to try to enter, so that Shanghai nickel probe as high as 101570 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the long and short sides left the market one after another, but Shanghai nickel still ran smoothly above the daily average of 101000 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 101170 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 0.02%. Today's trend is the same as yesterday, the morning market down 20 EMA support rebounded, recorded a "V" trend, the entity is still running in the 5 / 10 moving average range, recorded a small negative column for the third day in a row, the range of fluctuations narrowed compared with yesterday. Daily positions decreased by 1701 to 86828, while trading volume decreased by 160000 to 560000. Due to the proximity of delivery, in the case of changes in all technical indicators, it is expected that Shanghai nickel will still be adjusted around the 5 / 10 moving average in the near future.
From the spot point of view, today's SMM1 electrolytic nickel quoted 100350-101650 yuan / ton, the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Today, Shanghai nickel price opened high after the pressure down, the second trading session returned to rise, once again out of the "V" shape trend. In the spot market, as delivery is approaching, Russian nickel holders are offering prices one after another today, and non-deliverable Russian nickel is also reported near Pingshui. Russian nickel warehouse receipts and deliverable Russian nickel spot report are up 50100 yuan / ton to the 2006 contract, and the transaction situation is not as good as yesterday. Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract rose 1100-1200 yuan / ton, after the opening of the morning market, there are few transactions, the market is mostly waiting to see Jinchuan Company adjust prices, today's Shanghai ex-factory price of 102000 yuan / ton, Shanghai has a small number of shipments, but generally speaking, the delivery volume of traders is limited, so the rising water of the spot market is almost unchanged. Subsequently Jinchuan nickel reached a deal one after another, the volume is also less than yesterday. Nickel beans and yesterday's discount is the same as yesterday, the 2006 contract reported 800 yuan / ton.
According to SMM, the good balance sheet of primary nickel is highly dependent on the consumption of stainless steel and the shrinkage of domestic nickel pig iron, while in pure nickel, the downstream consumption is more scattered, other consumption is worse than that of stainless steel plate, the recovery degree of consumption is weaker than that of nickel pig iron, and it still takes time to wait for consumption to pick up. In view of the fact that the epidemic situation in overseas areas is still severe, but the intention to resume production is strong, and the future trend is good, there is still some potential for nickel price performance, and the current price may be on the center of gravity axis of the annual average price. In the past two days, see stainless steel prices peaked at the top of the long gradually decline, short positions to hold down the price, but nickel pig iron prices remain strong, and even about to rise water pure nickel, generally speaking, there is little room for nickel prices to fall, to maintain concussive operation.
Institutional point of view:
International Trade Futures: 13 Shanghai nickel low opened down after the rebound, the overall out of the "V" shape trend, 100, 000 near is still supported. The recent macro data has performed well, but Sino-US relations are complicated and confusing, and we still need to guard against the disturbance of macro uncertain events. From the basic point of view, the domestic port nickel mine inventory is still net consumption, the current nickel iron factory nickel mine inventory is still tight, but with the late Philippine nickel mine shipment has returned to normal, the shortage of raw material inventory will be alleviated. On the demand side, with the release of traders' replenishment and downstream procurement demand, stainless steel inventory continues to decline. If the output of stainless steel row maintains a steady growth, the demand for nickel will still be pulled in the short term. However, with the completion of downstream replenishment and the gradual embodiment of the impact of the epidemic on demand, the market is still worried about the performance of downstream demand in the later stage. Generally speaking, the overall macro mood is good in the near future, the spot prices of nickel industry chain remain strong, supply and demand still show positive feedback, nickel prices fluctuate in the short term or on the strong side, but the upstream space in the later stage is limited by downstream demand, focusing on the disturbance of macro news. Operational recommendations wait and see, short-term bargain to do more, arbitrage pay attention to Shanghai nickel near and far month contract full set opportunities (buy near sell far away), internal and external plate full set opportunities (more outer space).
Huatai Futures: recently electrolytic nickel spot transaction is light, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel recent month small discount, nickel bean discount slightly expanded. Nickel and iron plants cherish the sale price, some manufacturers quoted more than 1000 yuan, once the electrolytic nickel appeared to rise, last week stainless steel factory on the high nickel iron purchase volume is on the high side, this week the purchase enthusiasm has declined. The spot price of 304 stainless steel has been on the strong side recently, the acceptance price of nickel and iron in stainless steel factory has been raised, the transaction price of nickel and iron is strong, the supply of domestic nickel mine is still tight in the short term, and the performance of nickel price in the short term is on the strong side. However, in the middle line, the production capacity of Ferro nickel in Indonesia is gradually put into production, and the supply of ferronickel in the middle line may gradually be in excess, and the price of nickel in the middle line may still be not optimistic. Nickel strategy: unilateral: nickel temporary wait and see, the middle line supply pressure is still not optimistic. Nickel concerns: outbreaks and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, new crown outbreaks in other overseas countries, stainless steel stocks, China's new energy vehicle policy, and the progress of new production capacity.
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