5.14 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
Face to face: on Wednesday, the 2007 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 12350 yuan / ton in the morning, and then turned upwards after falling to a low of 12285 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session. During the day, it closed at 12495 yuan / ton, and the night session fluctuated slightly, closing at 12440 yuan / ton. As of the end of the night, the price spread narrowed to 155yuan / ton. On Wednesday, Lunlun aluminum opened at $1478.5 / ton, and the US index rose again to a high of 100.272 points from 99.570 points last night, suppressing the color of the outer plate. Lun aluminum was also under pressure, closing at $1476 / ton, down $3.50 / ton, down 0.24%, dominated by short positions, and the Shanghai-Lun ratio remained high at about 8.4%.
Macro: (1) overseas, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell yesterday expressed concern about US economic expectations and opposed Trump's negative interest rate policy. The governor of the Bank of England said the latest data confirmed that the UK had quickly entered recession, with a GDP of-1.6 per cent in the first quarter (bearish); The German government will relax border controls from May 16, and the German Ministry of the Interior plans to fully relax border controls on June 15. (2) on the domestic side, Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council, which called for strengthening macro-control and hedging, giving full play to the joint efforts of finance, money, social security, employment, and other policies, and demanding that the "six guarantees" be taken as the focal point of the "six stability" work to stabilize the basic market of the economy. In the first week of May, passenger car retail averaged 32000 vehicles a day from May 1 to 10, down 7 per cent from a year earlier and up 12 per cent from the previous month, the federation said.
Fundamentals: overseas, Tredegar, the parent company of Bonier aluminum company (Bonnell Aluminum), said on Monday that it expects aluminum profile sales to fall by 14% for the whole of 2020, as its plant was affected by layoffs and falling demand in major end markets during the coronavirus pandemic. On the domestic side, (1) Aluminum prices fell 270 yuan / ton yesterday, and the prices of all kinds of waste aluminum fell about 100 yuan / ton at the same time. The current waste aluminum and recycled aluminum market need to pay attention to the import of all kinds of recycled aluminum alloy ingots. Before the overseas epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the almost vanishing demand for global aluminum alloy ingots is being imported into China. Judging from the current number of overseas aluminum alloy ingots ordered, the import volume of aluminum alloy ingots will increase greatly by the end of May. Imports of aluminum alloy ingots may exceed 100000 tons in June. Huge imports will directly put pressure on the recycled casting alloy industry, directly seize its market share (bearish); (2) yesterday Guangdong aluminum bar processing fees rose slightly, on the one hand, due to the decline in aluminum base prices, on the other hand, due to the small number of local arrivals, downstream demand is still available (more favorable).
Spot: in the morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 12710-12730 yuan / ton, the holder can ship the goods, the middleman is more hesitant to receive the goods, the two sides are relatively hesitant, the spot price in the market after 10: 15 begins to concentrate on 1274012780 yuan / ton, the spot discount is between 10-12780 yuan / ton, a large household buys normally, generally speaking, the transaction between traders is more general, and the early shippers are obviously more than those who receive the goods. In the second stage of the transaction, there are more receivers than shippers. Downstream receiving status is better than the previous one, because of the sharp decline in aluminum prices to stimulate its enthusiasm for receiving goods. The overall transaction in East China is better. East China spot pair is expected to be near Pingshui today.
Summary: under the background of domestic macro improvement, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum continue to strongly go to the warehouse to give some support to the short-term aluminum price, but near the delivery day, with the supply of imports replenishing, the spot, the current month and the main contract price difference shrinks rapidly, the absolute price presents the high hindrance correction. The downlink space of the outer disk is relatively narrow in China, so it is necessary to pay continuous attention to the positive logic inside and outside in the near future.
(SMM Li Hao 021-51666863)