5. 13 minutes of the internal aluminum morning meeting of the SMM
Disk: overnight Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract opened at 12530 yuan / ton, night upward attempt to break through 12600 yuan / ton first-line fruitless, encountered in the morning to maintain the selling pressure, short positions during the aluminum continuous decline, intraday low hit 12400 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed down 12415 yuan / ton, down 0.96%; Overnight aluminum opened at $1496.0 a tonne, down 1.14 per cent to $1479.5 a tonne, while trading volume fell to 10000 hands and positions rose to 830000 hands. The US index was wide yesterday, down 0.21 per cent.
Macro: (1) due to the impact of demand, most parts of the United States have stopped work due to curbing the epidemic of new crown pneumonia. The monthly rate of CPI after quarterly adjustment in the United States in April was-0.8%, refreshing the lowest level since November 2008 (bearish); (2). Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the new crown epidemic may worsen in autumn or winter, and the death rate of new crown pneumonia in the United States may be higher than reported. (3) the Federal Reserve increases the details of its term asset-backed securities lending facility (bearish); (4) Japan's leading indicator index in March hit the lowest level since June 2009 (bearish mortgage); (5) Liu he presided over the sixth meeting of the State Council leading Group on promoting the Development of small and medium-sized Enterprises to increase financial support for market players. The total amount policy should pay attention to the structural orientation, improve the professionalism, make good use of all kinds of policy tools, such as credit loan, financing guarantee, policy loan, interest discount, accounts receivable financing, industry chain financing and so on, and strive to meet the capital needs of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Fundamentals: (1) the operating rate of SMM4 aluminum plate and foil enterprises is 72.94%, up 7.72% from the previous month, down 4.24% from the same period last year. In April, the prosperity of the aluminum plate and strip industry was significantly better than expected. It is expected that the month-on-month operating rate in May will fall slightly due to export restraint (Lido); (2) in March 2020, the operating rate of aluminum foil enterprises was 78.39%, up 3.49% from the previous month, and down 7.48% from the same period last year. The research enterprises are confident that the production in April will remain stable, but they are uncertain about the market performance after the second quarter. Some enterprises hold a pessimistic attitude (benefit more); (3) the overall operating rate of profile enterprises continued to rise in April, and the growth rate of small and medium-sized enterprises was obvious. At present, the waiting orders of construction profile enterprises are relatively abundant, and the delivery period is longer, but the new orders of some industrial profiles are not good, and the export recovery is slow. Therefore, the room for the overall operating rate of profiles to continue to increase in May is limited. (4) the rise of aluminum price deviates from the poor downstream demand of recycled aluminum. From May to June, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of imported aluminum ingots on the domestic recycled aluminum industry. Due to the slow recovery of the foreign automobile industry and the lack of demand, the import window will continue to open in the near future.
Spot: in the morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 13020 RMB13040 / ton, the high price is only purchased by large market investors, and the transaction price of other traders is on the low side. After 10: 30, with the sinking of aluminum futures and the rapid increase of shippers, the market transaction price began to concentrate at 12080 MFT 13000 yuan / ton. Before noon, the spot price was concentrated around Pingshui to 20 yuan / ton, and the spot price was basically flat compared to the previous day. However, the actual transaction situation is obviously not as good as the day before, the market out of more and less situation is prominent. Normal procurement downstream, mainly on demand. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre.
Summary: under the background of domestic macro improvement, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum continue to strongly go to the warehouse to give some support to the short-term aluminum price, but near the delivery day, with the supply of imports replenishing, the spot, the current month and the main contract price difference shrinks rapidly, the absolute price presents the high hindrance correction. The downlink space of the outer disk is relatively narrow in China, so it is necessary to pay continuous attention to the positive logic inside and outside in the near future.
(SMM Li Hao 021-51666863)