Home / Metal News / Lead / [SMM monthly report Select] Recycling lead New expansion capacity release & Light consumption is expected to continue the horizontal shock in May
[SMM monthly report Select] Recycling lead New expansion capacity release & Light consumption is expected to continue the horizontal shock in May
May 13,2020 09:36CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM5 12: in April, lead consumption steadily increased, although recycled lead continues to recover, but lead ingot accumulation is expected to be delayed. During the period, recycled lead with the increase in supply, recycled refined lead from rising water (to SMM1# lead average price) to discount; at the same time, due to the imminent holding of the two sessions, market rumors to reduce tax expectations, causing traders to actively receive goods, warehouse orders rose rapidly, domestic lead reported to the lead 2006 contract rose 550650 yuan / ton, so the market is more short and short, the spot lead price has been hovering around 14000 yuan / ton.

Generally speaking, due to the low explicit inventory base of lead ingots and the maintenance of primary lead, the immediate accumulation bank is expected to be cashed gradually, which is reflected in the limited volume in May. It is expected that in mid-to-late May, lead will continue the trend of horizontal volatility, while spot lead may fall below the Wansi mark due to gradual loosening of supply, and is expected to run at 13600 RMB14250 / ton.

Selected contents of monthly report

Lead price forecast next month: from the supply and demand plate, primary lead due to the existence of maintenance, May production is expected to decline slightly, while recycled lead continues to increase, the main growth point of recycled lead plate, lies in Anhui, Jiangxi and other places are about to release the new expansion capacity. It is understood that, such as Anhui Dahua, Aoneng, Jiangxi Qijin, Fengri and other enterprises, have recently completed raw material reserves, and will be put into production from mid-May, with a total daily production capacity of nearly 2000 tons. Of course, it is worth noting that what is closely related to the start of recycled lead enterprises is its profit level. As of May 12, recycled lead still has a profit margin of 100-200 yuan / ton, and there is no restriction on its production for the time being.

In addition, the lead battery market consumption, from the terminal point of view, May is the traditional off-season, the battery market promotion is frequent, and the price of some batteries has been close to the cost line, thus the inventory will continue to be transferred to the dealer, and there is no major adjustment in the production of large enterprises for the time being. Among them, the main affected are small and medium-sized enterprises, in order to digest inventory, has been on holiday for 3-5 days during the May Day holiday, it is expected that the operating rate of lead battery enterprises will decline steadily in May. On the other hand, as the epidemic situation in some overseas countries tends to ease and a few ports restart, it is necessary to pay attention to whether battery exports have taken a turn for the better.

Generally speaking, due to the low explicit inventory base of lead ingots and the maintenance of primary lead, the immediate accumulation bank is expected to be cashed gradually, which is reflected in the limited volume in May. It is expected that in mid-to-late May, lead will continue the trend of horizontal volatility, while spot lead may fall below the Wansi mark due to gradual loosening of supply, and is expected to run at 13600 RMB14250 / ton.

Recycled lead: according to SMM analysis, in April, Shanghai lead basically maintained the concussion operation of the box, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises was relatively stable. The procurement of superimposed waste batteries was slightly relaxed than that in the previous period, and the output of recycled lead enterprises was released. In addition, the production time of enterprises affected by maintenance, technical transformation and epidemic situation in the early stage recovered one after another, so the month-to-month output of licensed recycled lead smelting enterprises continued to rise in April. In the case of unlicensed refineries, due to the limited smelting profits, only a small number of small workshops dominated by individual business production have recovered, so the operating rate of unlicensed recycled lead refineries rose moderately in April.

"Click to view the SMM lead industry chain database

In May, the pressure on the supply side of recycled lead may increase sharply, and the increment mainly comes from the new commissioning of licensed enterprises. Among them, Anhui Taihe Dahua and Jiangxi Qijin plan to put into production on May 10, and the waste battery inventory has been more than 20,000 tons respectively. Jiangxi Fengri is scheduled to be put into production in mid-May, and its waste battery inventory has basically met the one-month disposal capacity. As a result, SMM expects the production and operating rate of recycled lead to continue to increase in May.

More:

Investigation data of SMM lead concentrate

Data Summary of SMM Refining lead Industry

SMM lead price and spot discount

Investigation on operating rate of lead concentrate Enterprises in April 2020

Comparative chart of lead concentrate imports in 2019 and 2020

Investigation on operating rate of Primary lead smelter in April 2020

Social inventory of lead in Shanghai and Guangdong

Investigation on Operation rate of recycled lead Refinery in April 2020

Investigation on the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in April 2020

Lead oxide

"Click order to view the details of the report

In 2019, global trade disputes escalated, the global economy was under pressure, and central banks began a wave of interest rate cuts. At the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that at present and for some time to come, the basic trend of China's economic stability and long-term improvement has not changed, and 2020 is also the year for China to build a well-off society in an all-round way and the end of the 13th five-year Plan. Against this background, the new crown virus is raging all over the world, and how to achieve stable economic growth in China is worth looking forward to.

In the zinc market, overseas mines will increase production step by step in 2019, but the increase in domestic mine production will be repeatedly hindered. In the first quarter of 2020, zinc prices fell through the mine cost line, mine profits plummeted, and how smelters and mine profits will be distributed in 2020. can overseas mines be expected to be put into production under the disturbance of the epidemic situation? In addition, the output of domestic zinc refining smelters broke through the bottleneck and set a new record in 2019, but under the disturbance at the supply end of zinc mines in 2020, can the capacity utilization rate of smelters maintain a high load? Whether the infrastructure investment under the tone of "stabilizing the economy" in 2020 can exceed the expected performance, whether the super-seasonal performance of the galvanizing industry can still be expected, and whether the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc may reverse in 2020, paying attention to and laying out structural opportunities is another option. Can zinc prices pick up in 2020?

In view of the above topics, SMM will invite industry bigwigs, industry professionals, upstream and downstream enterprises of the industry chain to hold the "2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit" in Changsha to discuss the current situation and problems faced by the industry, as well as future development prospects, and analyze the fundamentals and the future trend of zinc prices.

"Click to sign up for SMM" 2020 (15th) lead and Zinc Summit

Scan the QR code in the picture to sign up for the lead-zinc summit and fill in the personal information on the last page. The meeting staff will contact you later!

Monthly report
inventory
lead price
processing fee

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news