SMM Evening Comments (May 12): Shanghai base metals fell on lower-than-expected China inflation data

Published: May 12, 2020 18:25
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s consumer price index (CPI) for April rose 3.3% year on year, compared with expectations of a 3.7% rise. Meanwhile, China’s producer price index (PPI) for April declined 3.1% year on year, faster than an estimated fall of 2.6%.

SHANGHAI, May 12 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for lead, closed lower on May 12, following after they opened mixed Tuesday, as Chinese inflation data for April missed expectations.


Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s consumer price index (CPI) for April rose 3.3% year on year, compared with expectations of a 3.7% rise. Meanwhile, China’s producer price index (PPI) for April declined 3.1% year on year, faster than an estimated fall of 2.6%. 


Copper was the worst performer and shed 1.42%. Nickel slipped 1.13%, aluminium fell 0.72%, zinc declined 0.36%, tin eased 0.37%, while lead advanced 2.09%.


The ferrous complex, meanwhile, finished Tuesday higher for the most part as iron ore added 0.95%, rebar climbed 0.35%, hot-rolled coil increased 0.27%, coke edged up 0.29%, while stainless steel shed 0.92%. 


China on Tuesday unveiled the second list of 79 US products that will be excluded from the second round of additional tariffs, effective from May 19, 2020 to May 18, 2021. The products include ores of rare earth metals, gold ores, silver ores and concentrates.


Copper: The most-traded SHFE June contract retreated to approach 43,000 yuan/mt, ending at an intraday low of 43040 yuan/mt, down 1.42% on the day, following a session high of 43,450 yuan/mt in early trades. Weaker-than-expected China’s inflation data reignited market concerns about the coronavirus impact on industrial product prices and on domestic demand for commodities. The contract is expected to test support from 43,000 yuan/mt tonight. 


A Chilean industry group forecasts the copper market to see a supply glut of 200,000 mt this year as the economic impact of coronavirus hits global demand for the metal. It also estimates a 3.5% to 4% decrease in demand. 

 

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE July contract slipped after opened Tuesday at 12,600 yuan/mt, erasing all the gains from the prior day and ending at an intraday low of 12,415 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. Pressure remained significant from the 60-day moving average. This, coupled with expectations of weakened consumption in the near future, may continue to limit upsides of the contract. 


Zinc: The most-active SHFE July contract edged lower for the second consecutive day amid loaded-up shorts, as it hit a session low of 16,800 yuan/mt and finished the day 0.36% lower at 16,815 yuan/mt. An increase in social inventories of zinc lent some pressure to prices and support from the five-day moving average will be monitored tonight. 


Nickel: The most-traded SHFE July contract halted increase at an intraday high of 103,020 yuan/mt and relinquished gains to move close to the 10-day moving average, ending 1.13% lower on the day at 101,040 yuan/mt. With continued support from the 10-day moving average, the contract may unlikely to significantly expand declines tonight. 


Lead: The most-active SHFE June contract closed 2.09% higher on Tuesday at 14,150 yuan/mt given support from the daily moving average. But weak domestic lead fundamentals may unlikely to sustain a price rally. Meanwhile, the downward room for prices will also be capped before the upcoming delivery for the SHFE May contract. 


Tin: The most-liquid SHFE July contract came off after advanced, slipping to a session low of 129,660 yuan/mt and ended the day 0.37% lower at 130,290 yuan/mt. Support below is seen from 129,000 yuan/mt. 

 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Rio Tinto Halts Kennecott Copper Mine Operations After Worker Fatality, Awaits Investigation
14 hours ago
Rio Tinto Halts Kennecott Copper Mine Operations After Worker Fatality, Awaits Investigation
Read More
Rio Tinto Halts Kennecott Copper Mine Operations After Worker Fatality, Awaits Investigation
Rio Tinto Halts Kennecott Copper Mine Operations After Worker Fatality, Awaits Investigation
Following a worker fatality on March 12, Rio Tinto suspended operations at its Kennecott copper mine in Utah, US. In a statement posted on its official website, Rio Tinto said that all surface and underground mining operations at Kennecott (also known as Bingham Canyon Mine) had been suspended. Chief Executive Officer Simon Trott said the company was working closely with the relevant authorities and contractor partners to support a full and thorough investigation.
14 hours ago
First Quantum to Sell Turkey's Çayeli Mine to Cengiz for $340M, Awaits Regulatory Approval
14 hours ago
First Quantum to Sell Turkey's Çayeli Mine to Cengiz for $340M, Awaits Regulatory Approval
Read More
First Quantum to Sell Turkey's Çayeli Mine to Cengiz for $340M, Awaits Regulatory Approval
First Quantum to Sell Turkey's Çayeli Mine to Cengiz for $340M, Awaits Regulatory Approval
Canada-based First Quantum Minerals will sell its Çayeli mine in Turkey to Cengiz Holding for $340 million in cash as part of its portfolio optimization strategy.Cengiz Holding will acquire the underground copper-zinc mine through its subsidiary CengizInsaat.First Quantum Chief Executive Officer Tristan Pascall said, "The sale reflects the company's disciplined approach to portfolio management while focusing on its core strategic priorities."The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to be completed in Q2 or Q3 of this year.
14 hours ago
Khark Island Attack Foiled: Defense Restored, Oil Operations Unaffected, No Casualties Reported
14 hours ago
Khark Island Attack Foiled: Defense Restored, Oil Operations Unaffected, No Casualties Reported
Read More
Khark Island Attack Foiled: Defense Restored, Oil Operations Unaffected, No Casualties Reported
Khark Island Attack Foiled: Defense Restored, Oil Operations Unaffected, No Casualties Reported
The situation on Khark Island has been brought under control, and the defense system was restarted shortly after coming under attack. According to reports, following the attack on Khark Island, preliminary observation and assessment found that the island’s critical oil infrastructure sustained no damage, and related operations are continuing. All employees in the oil sector on Khark Island were unharmed. Citing informed sources, the report said that the attackers failed to achieve their intended strategic objectives.
14 hours ago
SMM Evening Comments (May 12): Shanghai base metals fell on lower-than-expected China inflation data - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)