5. 11 minutes of the internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum
Trading: on Friday, the dollar index closed down 0.108, or 0.11%, at 99.731, closing in the shadows. Lunalco was closed for a day on Friday for a Bank of England holiday. The Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract closed on Friday at 12430 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, or 0.24%. The offshore yuan rose sharply on Friday, closing at a recent one-week high of 7.0908. On Friday, eastern time, the three major U. S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, up more than 1%.
Macro side: 1) the central bank released the first quarter report on the implementation of China's monetary policy, insisting that houses are used to live, not to speculate, and that "real estate should not be used as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term." maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies. 2) Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University show that there have been more than 4.1 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia worldwide, including more than 10,000 new cases in Russia and 1327720 cases in the United States in a row. (bearish) after the April quarterly survey, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States fell by 20.5 million, the biggest drop on record, after a previous decline of 701000. (bearish)
Fundamentals: 1) the start of the recycled aluminum industry in April growth is weak, mainly due to the significant impact of the epidemic, domestic and foreign demand are relatively light, recycled aluminum enterprises in the delivery of the previous backlog of orders after the new orders are less, coupled with the import of aluminum alloy imports increased nearly 8 times compared with the same period last year, for the start of domestic recycled aluminum enterprises to resume suppression. (bearish / negative) 2) on the aluminum bar side, stimulated by high processing fees, the supply has gradually increased, while there is limited room for demand to continue to rise. In May, aluminum bar processing fees will face some pullback pressure. 3) at the end of April, the price of anhydrous aluminum fluoride fell sharply, with a declining trend. At one point, there was a transaction of about 8000 yuan / ton, and then the transaction price gradually stabilized after the aluminum fluoride production enterprises stopped production and reduced production and market consolidation. SMM's current factory quotation is around 8500 yuan / ton, with very few transactions. Aluminum fluoride accounts for less than 3% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. 4) after the festival, alumina prices are stagnant, and trading in the spot market is deadlocked. At present, we have not heard of scale transactions, overseas alumina prices are arranged horizontally, and it is expected that alumina prices will be difficult to rise in the future. We still need to pay attention to the demand of electrolytic aluminum plants in the future. (negative)
Spot end: last Friday, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 12820-12840 yuan / ton, the spot price fell back nearly 150 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the surface rising water concentrated in the 90-110 yuan / ton. As the price of aluminum fell back and rose, the shippers of the shippers increased significantly on the same day, and the middlemen received the goods more actively under the condition of low prices. A large household carried out the procurement plan as usual, and the transactions between the buyers and sellers were OK, showing a slight stalemate in the price. Downstream on the same day to improve the enthusiasm of stock, due to the decline in aluminum prices superimposed for the weekend consideration, the day receiving status than the previous two days preference. The overall transaction in East China was better on the same day.
Summary: at present, the aluminum price is still above the full average cost line of the electrolytic aluminum plant, and the subsequent maintenance and reduction of the electrolytic aluminum plant is expected to be difficult to expand or even slightly narrowed, but in view of the current short-term maintenance of the consumer side is on the strong side, it is expected that the short-term inventory will remain in the warehouse state, taking a comprehensive view of the volatility of the aluminum price maintenance range this week, focusing on the impact of spot market trading on the futures market in the last week before the delivery of contracts in the current month.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)