[SMM Analysis] it will take time for overseas new energy vehicle plants to gradually resume production and recover terminal demand.

Lundin Mining Corporation reported third-quarter 2026 molybdenum production of 130 tonnes at the Caserones mine on a 100% mine basis. SMM calculations indicate declines of 65.6% quarter on quarter and 77.4% year on year. January–September output fell 29.5% to 1,097 tonnes. Molybdenum grade remained unchanged from the second quarter at 0.017%, but ore milled dropped 46.9% to 4.45 million tonnes. Two severe winter storms caused prolonged power outages and suspended operations for approximately 30 days in total. Lundin did not provide separate revised molybdenum guidance.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s board has approved a US$4.5 billion expansion and modernization program for its wholly owned Bagdad copper-molybdenum mine in the United States. Annual molybdenum production is expected to exceed 20 million lb (about 9,072 tonnes), including approximately 12 million lb (about 5,443 tonnes) of incremental output. Mining and milling rates will more than double, supported by 115,000 tonnes per day of new concentrator capacity. Construction is expected to take about 3.5 years, with initial production targeted for mid-2030. The approval advances the project from evaluation into development, but does not add to current supply.

China Market: SMM’s assessment for 30% tantalum ore CIF China on 5 November is US$238–243/lb, averaging US$240.50/lb, unchanged from the previous assessment. The average is US$3/lb, or 1.23%, below Monday’s US$243.50/lb assessment on 2 November. Today’s price suggests a pause in the recent decline, but there is not yet enough evidence to indicate a recovery. African Market: SMM’s 5 November FOB East Africa assessment is US$4.50–4.60/kg per degree, averaging US$4.55. This is down US$0.20, or 4.21%, from the US$4.75 average on 29 October. The upper end fell from US$5.00 to US$4.60, while the lower end remained US$4.50. The assessment covers 28%–38% Ta₂O₅ material, FOB Dar es Salaam. An industry price indication collected this week at US$4.60/kg per degree is consistent with the revised upper end. The available details do not confirm a completed transaction at that level. CIF China and FOB East Africa should continue to be assessed separately because their units and delivery terms differ. African Tantalum Developments: • DRC — supplier-reported shipment: During the 4 November supplier discussion, a miner reported a 25-tonne tantalite shipment to Spain, priced at US$38,000 per tonne on a CIF basis, with a reported grade of 38.04% Ta₂O₅. This provides a further lead on commercial activity, but the shipment status, assay and transaction documents require verification. It remains a supplier-reported transaction and should not be treated as a directly comparable FOB East Africa price. • Côte d’Ivoire — Issia exploration: Switch Metals’ 2 November update reported tantalum mineralisation at its Issia project in southwestern Côte d’Ivoire. Kabore returned 6 metres at 130 ppm Ta₂O₅, while Zraty returned 6 metres at 85 ppm Ta₂O₅. These are downhole intervals. Results cover seven of 34 drilled holes, with 27 pending. The findings support further exploration, although the company noted that Zraty’s drill grades were below earlier surface samples. Commercial tantalum production has not been established. • Zimbabwe — Zulu restart preparations: Premier African Minerals said on 5 November that it targets restarting processing at its Zulu Lithium and Tantalum Project during the week beginning 16 November, following a delay from October. Engineering preparations are substantially complete, while workforce arrangements remain outstanding. The announced campaign focuses on spodumene production and plant performance; no tantalum output target was provided. Its immediate contribution to tantalum supply therefore remains uncertain. Market Outlook: The available evidence points to a stable-to-softer near-term tantalum market: China’s import assessment is unchanged today but lower over the week, while East Africa’s weekly export assessment has declined. Comparable completed transactions, buyer acceptance and verified shipment volumes will help establish whether prices stabilise at these levels. Exploration results and restart plans remain relevant to future supply.