[SMM Weekly Outlook] non-agricultural data release gold price volatility professional investors are still optimistic about the future

As risk appetite generally improved and global stock markets soared, spot gold fell sharply from a two-week high. Gold prices have remained stable this week, at around $1700 an ounce.

Spot gold fell below the 1700 mark at one point to a new low of $1699.82 an ounce on Friday, hitting an intraday low of $1723.13. Before and after the data were released, spot gold fell nearly $17 in the short term to a low of $1705.40 / oz, but then quickly rebounded from its low and at one point hit the $1720 / oz mark again, the highest since April 27. However, the rally reversed again, with spot gold falling $21 to a daily low of $1700.03 an ounce.

May 8, the United States announced that after the April quarterly survey, non-farm payrolls recorded-20.5 million, expected to be-22 million, the biggest decline on record. The Labor Department reported that US non-farm payrolls fell by 20.5 million in April and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7 per cent, the highest level since the early 1930s. Judging from the number of initial jobless claims in the past few weeks, the job market is expected to weaken sharply.

According to the CME, the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate between 0% and 0.25% in June is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%-0.50% is 0%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate at 0%-0.25% in July is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%-0.50% is 0%.

Trump commented that the lost jobs will be back soon and that the economy is artificially shut down. The US job market was affected by the coronavirus blockade at an all-time high in April, with non-farm payrolls falling by 20.5 million and the unemployment rate soaring to 14.7 per cent, CNBC said. Both numbers easily broke post-World War II records and reflected the huge losses caused in the fight against the virus.

For the gold market, six of the 11 Wall Street professionals (55%) said they were bullish on the coming week. Three professionals (27 per cent) expect gold prices to fall, while two professionals (18 per cent) are neutral. At the same time, an online poll for main Street showed a total of 750 people voting. A total of 502 investors (67 per cent) expect gold prices to rise next week. Another 139 (19 per cent) were expected to fall and 109 (15 per cent) were neutral. Last week's survey showed that Wall Street and the general public were bullish on the performance of gold this week. COMEX June gold futures closed down 0.7 per cent at $1713.90 an ounce, up 0.8 per cent this week.

George Gero, managing director of (RBC Wealth Management), a wealth management company at Royal Bank of Canada, said he expected gold prices to rise next week after releasing "bad employment data" on Friday. Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said: "Gold fell to just a few dollars from what I called support of $1680 and then rebounded well. I think the price of gold will climb next week. " Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco, said the technical chart remained bullish. "this week's price movements have revived bulls' sentiment," he added. " Meanwhile, Daniel Pavilonis, a senior commodities broker at, RJO Futures, said he expects a pullback in the near future, although he believes the long-term rally is not over.

Gold futures fell below $1700 several times and then rebounded above $1700, he said. But each time, gold tends to hit a lower high.

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