SMM5 8: today most of the non-ferrous plate closed up, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1.9%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 1.7%, Shanghai aluminum Shanghai nickel fell slightly. The Ministry of Commerce said today that according to preliminary statistics, since the outbreak of the epidemic, 28 provinces and cities and more than 170 prefectures and cities have co-ordinated local government and social funds, and the cumulative issuance of consumption vouchers has reached more than 19 billion yuan. These measures to promote elimination have achieved remarkable results. Promote the growth of consumption and promote the recovery of popularity and the recovery of the market. A few days ago, in order to promote the transformation and upgrading of non-ferrous metal consumption, cultivate new development momentum, and promote high-quality development of the industry, the Department of Raw Materials Industry, in conjunction with the Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, organized a video seminar on expanding the application of copper consumption. It is emphasized to give full play to the basic supporting role of copper-based materials in the high-quality development of downstream industries and promote the consumption upgrading of non-ferrous industries. Zinc, since the return of May Day holiday, zinc prices rose strongly for three consecutive days, Shanghai zinc 2007 contract high rose to 16970 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.11%. SMM believes that from a fundamental point of view, although Europe and the United States gradually restart their economies, but the enthusiasm of the mining end to resume work is not high, it is expected that the import of zinc concentrate from May to June will significantly reduce the short-term zinc price will still be on the strong side, pay attention to the pressure at the Wanqi pass.
Black iron ore rose nearly 2.6%, thread rose nearly 0.9%, hot coil rose nearly 1.5%, bifocal rose nearly 1%. Steel consumption and inventory reduction performance is better than in the same period in previous years, but the weak periphery, absolutely high inventory, still constraining the rise in black commodity prices. But there is room for strong domestic consumption to fall at the bottom. In the aspect of iron ore, due to the great increase in the demand for steel storage during the "May 1" holiday, the amount of port dredging has been significantly increased by the replenishment of storage by steel mills. And yesterday downstream steel data show that the national inventory continued to decline, downstream steel mills demand is good; and according to SMM, recently some EAF steel mills affected by scrap procurement difficulties, some markets even appear in short supply, departmental steel mills tend to blast furnace production. Considering that some steel enterprises still have replenishment demand after the festival, the demand end of iron ore is still expected to increase steadily, and the import price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range.
Crude oil rose 0.93% in the previous period. The decline in the number of US LPG rigs confirmed market expectations. Enervus, the US LPG rig data provider, said on Thursday that the Permian oil output collapse continued, with the number of US oil and gas rigs falling 34 to 398 in the week to May 6. Oil rigs led the decline again, falling 29 to 286 during the week, while the number of natural gas-focused rigs fell by five to 112. Total drilling activity in the United States fell by nearly 53% from its recent peak in the week to March 4 and is now 63% lower than in the same period last year.
As of today's day close:
As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
In terms of capital flows, the sharp increase in the number of unemployed in the United States has intensified concerns about the global economic recession caused by the new crown epidemic. Shanghai gold, Shanghai and silver banks have strongly pulled up, 1.435 billion funds have poured into precious metal plates, and some varieties of non-ferrous metal plates have risen rapidly. More than 300 million yuan has flowed into Shanghai zinc and Shanghai aluminum respectively, and Shanghai copper has also absorbed 200 million yuan. A few days ago, the popular crude oil, coke and Shanghai nickel were sold off, ranking in the top three in terms of capital outflows. In addition, the oil chain regained financial attention, 405 million funds split into the market.
A brief comment on SMM analysts on May 8th
Copper: LME is closed today because it coincides with a bank holiday. The main force of Shanghai copper opened at 43200 yuan / ton in the morning. After opening, the bulls pushed up the copper price by about 140 yuan / ton, and arranged the horizontal plate around the position of 43330 yuan / ton. Before noon, copper prices slowly climbed to 43470 yuan / ton, after a small drop of 50 yuan / ton, closed at 43420 yuan / ton. Afternoon opening, Shanghai copper continued to climb to the day's highest point of 43610 yuan / ton. Near the end of the session, copper prices fell slightly to close at 43510 yuan / ton, up 720 yuan / ton, or 1.68%. The daily position of the main force of Shanghai copper decreased by 85 hands to 113000 hands, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 5663 hands to 80000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract position today decreased by 2890 hands to 33000 hands, mainly for short positions, the current spread with 06 contract prices widened to 200 yuan / tonne. Shanghai Copper 2007 contract increased its position by more than 2000 hands. The slow rise in the main force of copper in Shanghai today was mainly driven by optimistic expectations of a sustained recovery in copper demand. Copper-related import data released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that China's copper production has further recovered, and social inventories in the three places continued to decline today, indicating that domestic copper consumption is optimistic. On the supply side, Chilean copper production rose 4.2 per cent in March from a year earlier, while (Codelco), the world's largest copper miner, rose 14.8 per cent to 147600 tonnes in March from a year earlier. Peruvian copper mines are also expected to reopen. Concerns about tight copper supply have eased and there have been limits on copper price growth. At present, the 60-day moving average of Shanghai Copper has also changed from the pressure level to the support level. On the technical side, look at the price of copper. In the evening, we focused on the changes in non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and the unemployment rate in April to test whether Shanghai copper could continue to rise.
Aluminum: the Shanghai aluminum main force 2007 contract opened at 12440 yuan / ton in the morning, hovering near the 12425 yuan / ton line at the beginning of the day, and then increased its position by more than 2, 700 hands within 15 minutes, pushing down the high aluminum price. The low level reached 12320 yuan / ton, refreshed its low since a week, hit 12320 yuan / ton again after struggling at the low level, began to climb in the afternoon, rose 12455 yuan / ton at the end of the day, and ended up at 12430 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton. Down 0.24%, closed in the small negative line, position increased by 12536 hands to 143000 hands, short positions increased mainly, trading volume increased by 24594 hands to 105000 hands, daily KDJ third line down, daily MACD red line shortened. Due to the weakening expectation of consumption, the upstream space is expected to be limited at night, and we will continue to pay attention to the resistance of the 60-day moving average above.
Lead: during the day, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 13880 yuan / ton, and the daily moving average under pressure fluctuated throughout the day. During the shock platform slowly declined, the center of gravity of the day moved down, and finally closed at 13895 yuan / ton. The position increased by 977 yuan / ton to 25391 hands, up 5 yuan / ton, or 0.04%. Shanghai lead newspaper lengthened the upper shadow small negative line, the uplink breakthrough failed again, there is a strong pressure at the Wansi pass, considering that the pressure on the supply end of recycled lead will gradually appear in mid-May, Shanghai lead is still expected to fall back and weaken at night, but before the new recycled lead is actually put into production, the disk may show a gentle downward trend.
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Registration contact: Lu Qingping, SMM Iron and Steel Division
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