[summary of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting] unwrought aluminum and aluminum products fell back in April compared with the same month, and the contract price gap continued to widen in recent months.

Disk:

On Thursday, the 2007 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company was opened at 12730 yuan / ton, and the short position increased by more than 3, 000 hands during the day. The price was under pressure, closing at 12620 yuan / ton, down 0.94%. The contract price difference in recent months was about 150 yuan / ton, and the short position in the far month increased obviously. Lun Aluminum opened at US $1480.5 / ton in the morning, showing a narrow range of volatility in the Asian market, slightly rising to US $1494 / ton in the European session and up in the US market to close at US $1492 / ton, down 0.64%.

Macro:

Overseas, the US is expected to release April employment data on Friday, with non-farm payrolls expected to fall by 22 million and the unemployment rate expected to soar to 16 per cent. The US index has fallen from a two-week high and investor confidence has suffered. The number of first-time jobless claims in the United States last week exceeded 3 million for the seventh consecutive week (bearish). On the domestic side, Li Keqiang yesterday chaired a meeting of the Central leading Group to deal with the epidemic of Xinguan pneumonia, calling for summing up and popularizing effective practices to do a good job in regular prevention and control, and orderly promoting the resumption of school classes to speed up the improvement of rapid detection ability (Li duo). In April, the PMI44.4, of China's Caixin service industry increased by 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous month (negative). According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance, the implementation period of the preferential tax policy stipulated in the announcement of the State Administration of Taxation of the Ministry of Finance on supporting the return of individual industrial and commercial households to work and return to work (announcement No. 13 of 2020) has been extended to December 31, 2020 (Lido).

Fundamentals:

Alumina, yesterday the market has not heard of the scale of transactions, the seller's offer is relatively strong, but the electrolytic aluminum plant wait-and-see mood again, the market trading is relatively deadlocked, SMM alumina quotation 2209 yuan / ton, flat (neutral) compared with the previous day; In terms of electrolytic aluminum, according to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 441000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April, down 15 percent from the previous month and 11.4 percent from the same period last year. From January to April, exports totaled 1.629 million tons, down 15.9 percent from the same period last year. Exports in May are hardly optimistic, and the same month-on-month ratio is expected to continue to decline. Yesterday, aluminum bar processing fees fell, Foshan processing fees fell greatly, the price center of gravity fell to about 650 yuan / ton, self-raised low price in 600650 yuan / ton, high steam transport price in 700-750 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream was significantly weakened, mainly due to the increase in the supply of consumer places, waste aluminum supply grabbed a certain downstream demand for aluminum bars, and there was still downward pressure in the later stage (bearish). Spot:

On Thursday morning, the price quoted by the holder in Wuxi area of Shanghai was between 12970 and 12990 yuan / ton. The spot price was basically flat compared with the previous day, and the rising surface was concentrated in the range of 80-100 yuan / ton. In the morning, the holder was active in shipping, a large customer received the goods normally, and the middleman received the goods fairly well. With the sharp drop in aluminum futures, the receipt of the goods by the major customers was nearing the end, the shippers began to hesitate, the quotation rose strongly, and the buyers and sellers showed a slight stalemate in the transaction price. The spot price in Hangzhou is between 1299010 yuan and 13010 yuan per ton. Downstream on-demand procurement mainly, did not show a positive state. The overall transaction in East China is OK. It is expected that the spot in East China today rose about 100 yuan / ton that month.

Summary:

The domestic epidemic situation has been basically controlled, the policy release is more favorable, and the macro atmosphere is getting warmer. Fundamentals, the short-term supply side is not significantly uplifted, and the aluminum ingot spot market arrives less, downstream demand is still strong, liquidity is tight, it is expected that one to two weeks after the festival spot water and futures aluminum prices strong shock pattern to maintain, short increase in short positions is more obvious, recent month price spread further expanded, we should pay attention to the long short sentiment before the exchange month and the marginal changes of internal and external strength and weakness.

(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)