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Lose the "city" in a row! Why did the installed capacity of soft package batteries plummet in the first quarter?
May 6,2020 11:31CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM network news: on one side is a square, cylindrical batteries continue to attack the city, on the other hand is the soft package battery even lost "the city".

According to the Power Battery Application Branch, the installed capacity of soft package batteries in the first quarter of this year was 255.42 MWh. it accounted for 4.49% of the total installed capacity of 5.68GWh in the first quarter of this year. In the same period last year, the installed capacity of soft package batteries was 1247.24 MWh. the market share was 10.13%. Both the installed capacity and market share of soft-package batteries fell sharply in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year.

According to Battery China Network statistics, in the first quarter of this year to achieve the loading of new energy vehicles, a total of 18 soft battery manufacturers, in addition to Yi Wei Li Neng, Aisikai Integrated Chemical Investment (China) Co., Ltd. (SKI) these new soft package manufacturers, other manufacturers installed in the first quarter of this year have dropped sharply.

It is true that in the first quarter affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, new energy vehicles production and marketing have been greatly impacted, the overall installed capacity of power batteries has also dropped sharply. However, the soft package battery in this round of impact has the most obvious decline in market share, which is also worth exploring.

2019 Q1 and 2020 Q1 soft package Battery Enterprise TOP10

Source: power Battery Application Branch (unit: MWh)

Some car companies give up ternary soft package and switch to square lithium iron phosphate

Although the installed capacity affected by the Xinguan pneumonia epidemic fell sharply in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, Funeng Technology still maintains the status of "first brother" in the installed capacity of soft packages. however, several soft battery manufacturers, such as Polyfluorodor, Kanai New Energy and National Energy Battery, fell sharply in the first quarter of this year. Among them, the number of soft package batteries installed by Kanai New Energy in the first quarter decreased from 138.25mWhh in the same period last year to 2.52mWhh this year, down 98.17% from the same period last year, and falling out of the soft package TOP10.

Battery China Network carding found that the installed capacity of Kanai New Energy plummeted in the first quarter, in addition to being affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but also related to its major customers abandoning soft packages and switching to square lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Data show that in the first quarter of 2019, the installed capacity of Kanai new energy soft package battery is 138.25MWh. among them, 103.38MWh is equipped with SAIC GM Wuling Baojun E100, E200 and other related models, with the number of supporting models reaching 4679. However, in the first quarter of 2020, Kanai New Energy only equipped soft-package ternary batteries for SAIC GM Wuling 71 related models, with an installed capacity of about 1.70MWh. According to Battery China Network, in the first quarter of this year, SAIC General Motors Wuling Baojun E100, E200 and other related models are mainly equipped with Lishen battery, square lithium iron phosphate battery provided by Penghui Energy, and square ternary battery provided by Ningde era.

SAIC General Wuling tilted its batteries to square lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, directly leading to a sharp drop in the installed capacity of Kanai New Energy in the first quarter of this year.

Similarly, the installed capacity of soft package batteries in the first quarter of this year is also affected to some extent by the switching of square lithium iron phosphate batteries by relevant customers. For example, in the first quarter of 2019, 4500 Chery eQ1 cars were equipped with 164.7MWh soft-package ternary batteries, compared with 359 in the first quarter of this year. 11MWh soft-package ternary batteries were used in the model.

Xiaobian speculates that because the above models generally have a relatively low range, and with the adjustment of the subsidy policy, some models have not been subsidized or subsidized very little. In order to save costs, car companies have begun to import lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower costs on the relevant models. As a result, the installed capacity of the soft package battery manufacturers supporting these car enterprises has been greatly hit.

In addition, the soft package battery head manufacturers, there are several companies have a similar situation, as a result of last year's popular models stop production or replace other types of batteries, resulting in a sharp decline in the overall installed capacity.

Affected by the sharp decline in the number of soft battery installations, a number of soft battery head manufacturers fell sharply in the domestic power battery installation ranking in the first quarter of this year, and some companies have even fallen out of the TOP10 camp.

Why is the soft package battery not on fire?

In the past few years, because the subsidy policy is linked to the energy density, the soft package battery has certain advantages in energy density, lightweight, safety and so on. Especially with the rising of the new energy passenger vehicle market, it has become the main force of the new energy vehicle. Many people believe that in the future new energy vehicle market, the soft package battery will be the protagonist of the electric vehicle stage and can break with the square battery. But the market share of soft-package batteries fell instead of rising in 2019, and the market share was squeezed again into 2020.

For the reasons, the editor believes that there are the following aspects:

First, subsidies are no longer only energy density theory. The frequent outbreaks of safety accidents in new energy vehicles from the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019 have led to a greater emphasis on the safety of new energy vehicles at the policy-making level, rather than fuelling the energy density of batteries. The maximum financial subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2019 is only twice the subsidy standard of 160Wh/kg, and there is no additional multiple reward for higher energy density models. Recently, the state issued financial subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020, battery energy density has not been adjusted, continuing the idea of new energy vehicle safety first. Under the guidance of policy, enterprises are no longer blindly pursuing energy density, and the advantage of soft package battery in energy density is no longer so obvious.

Second, the soft package head production enterprise customer expansion is insufficient. From the point of view of the current soft package head production enterprises, the cooperative customers are still limited to some domestic head car enterprises or second and third line car enterprises, and the cooperative model is single, the market development does not meet the expectations, so that the installed capacity of enterprises is greatly affected by the car enterprises.

3. The cost is still higher than that of square and cylindrical batteries. The requirements for the manufacturing process of soft package batteries are significantly higher than those of cylindrical and square batteries. The additional costs and technical requirements in production and packaging increase the terminal price of new energy vehicles in disguise, thus discouraging some car companies. To put it bluntly, in the face of cost, more companies have chosen to compromise with the other two types of batteries. But it is foreseeable that as the cost of soft battery technology falls, its other advantages will still attract more car companies' attention.

4. Other battery technologies continue to innovate and selectively increase. This is more obvious in the field of square batteries. At present, the domestic head battery manufacturers Ningde Times and BYD, their products are based on square batteries, and the two innovations in square battery research and development make the square advantage is also expanding. Such as Ningde era CTP battery technology, BYD "blade battery" technology, these two technologies, not only improve the energy density of the battery system, vehicle life distance, but also further reduce the cost, but also enhance the safety of the battery and even the vehicle. With the continuous innovation of soft package battery competition technology, some of the advantages of soft package battery are no longer so obvious, and the disadvantages are gradually magnified, and it is difficult to attract the attention of automobile enterprises.

Of course, the advantages of soft package battery are still worthy of further exploration and expansion, especially in the case that the cost can be reduced through technological innovation, large-scale production, etc., we can still look forward to the application prospect of soft package battery.

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