May 6 spot price of SMM nickel: average price of SMM1# electrolytic nickel fell 2550 yuan / ton

[SMM Nickel Flash] July 31 news: Recently, due to Indonesia's rare earth-related detection policies, shipments of high-grade NPI from Indonesian ports have been restricted. According to SMM, LS inspection reports are currently being issued in batches, and high-grade NPI at the ports has been gradually released since mid-week. This shipping suspension only briefly disrupted the pace of shipments, with limited impact on overall supply and demand in the high-grade NPI market.

The EU Commission continues to present CBAM as a fairness mechanism, but critics argue the actual framework creates severe asymmetry between importers and domestic steel producers. Under CBAM's Article 31 formula, only a normative allocation entitlement is mirrored, not actual economic relief — domestic mills with benchmark allocations exceeding actual emissions retain tradable surplus allowances, while importers can at best achieve zero liability with no transferable entitlement. Since 2005, European steel producers have received over 3.4 billion free ETS allowances, of which approximately 884 million were surplus — representing a calculated gross value of nearly €71 billion at current carbon prices. The latest ETS reform proposal (COM(2026) 616) fails to address this imbalance, extending free allocation for CBAM sectors to 2038 while leaving historical surplus allowances fully intact. SMEs and downstream processors hold no legacy allowance reserves and must prefinance CBAM certificates upfront, while large steel corporations draw on decades of accumulated surpluses — entrenching rather than resolving the structural asymmetry.

Outokumpu reported Q2 2026 sales revenue up 6.5% YoY to €1.58 billion, with adjusted EBITDA rising 33.3% to €100 million, driven by improved European performance and continued strong Americas results. The company posted a net profit of €25 million, reversing a net loss of €19 million in Q2 2025. Stainless steel deliveries rose 5% QoQ and 1% YoY to 488,000mt, while ferrochrome deliveries increased 4% QoQ and 12.9% YoY to 114,000mt on robust demand for low-emission European ferrochrome. For H1 2026, sales revenue edged up 0.8% YoY to €3.03 billion, adjusted EBITDA grew 32.3% to €164 million, and net profit reached €18 million versus a net loss of €37 million in H1 2025. Under its EVOLVE strategy, Outokumpu will launch a €30 million first-phase investment at its Avesta plant in Sweden to expand into high-nickel alloys, with total investment estimated at €150 million. For Q3, stainless steel deliveries are expected to decline up to 10% QoQ due to seasonal factors, with adjusted EBITDA forecast to remain broadly stable.