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[SMM analysis] the price spread and raw materials have improved, and the scrap copper rod shows signs of recovery.
May 3,2020 23:58CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM5, March 3:

SMM data show that the tax difference between bright copper and electrolytic copper is 368 yuan / ton, an increase of 164 yuan over last Friday, and the price difference between fine waste and waste continues to be repaired. In addition, the recent copper price has rebounded to a relatively high level, the shipment willingness of domestic copper scrap upstream suppliers has been greatly improved, with pre-festival high clearance risk aversion sentiment, it is easier for waste enterprises to purchase successfully, and gradually have the expectation that the scrap copper rod industry will improve.

According to SMM, although local ports and logistics transportation in Malaysia are slower than normal, they have recovered well, and importers are speeding up the return of stocks of scrap copper products accumulated in the previous period, which will arrive around the middle and late May. If copper prices can maintain the overall positive trend, the supply of scrap copper should rise again by that time, and the problem of continuous replenishment of scrap copper in waste enterprises will be improved.

However, the dismantling enterprises in Southeast Asia mainly import low-grade waste copper from Europe, the United States, and other developed countries, and are allowed to enter the country only after dismantling and disposing. At present, there is a lack of raw materials for dismantling enterprises in Southeast Asia, and it is more difficult to supplement quickly under the epidemic situation. It will take some time for the whole waste copper to enter the country. From a longer period of time, the overall supply of waste copper will still be tight.

To sum up, from the perspective of the price advantage and the improvement of scrap copper supply, it is expected that the operating rate of scrap copper rod will increase slightly, but the situation is not improving, the advantage of scrap copper rod instead of refined copper rod is not enough, and demand continues to be suppressed. Scrap copper supply will remain tight for a long time and will limit the degree of recovery of scrap copper rod enterprises.


Electrolytic Copper
operating rate
Price Forecast

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